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How many units do you think SWITCH will sell in 2018 (sold through)?

Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units do you think SWITCH will sell in 2018 (sold through)?

Sold through in 2018

Less than 10 million 6 5.45%
 
10 million 2 1.82%
 
12 million 1 0.91%
 
15 million 21 19.09%
 
18 million 51 46.36%
 
20 million 21 19.09%
 
25 million 3 2.73%
 
More than 25 million 5 4.55%
 
Total:110
IkePoR said:
Nintendo says 20m. Have they set the bar too high in recent years? Most recent one I remember is 3DS' first or second fiscal year.

Anyway, I'm guessing 23, since they usually lowball it. They have to have an Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem and Metroid or just a Pokemon to get those numbers.

20m is the shipment forecast for April 1st 2018 till March 31st 2019, not the consumer sales forecast.

No they're not going to sell 23m to consumers in 2018.



LTD Sales Predictions: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m
2019 Sales : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m
2020 Sales: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

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18.7m. Animal Crossing and Mario Party revealed at E3. Along with 1080 and a few smaller franchises like FE helping drive sales. Oh and ..... Smash!



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Barkley said:
IkePoR said:
Nintendo says 20m. Have they set the bar too high in recent years? Most recent one I remember is 3DS' first or second fiscal year.

Anyway, I'm guessing 23, since they usually lowball it. They have to have an Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem and Metroid or just a Pokemon to get those numbers.

20m is the shipment forecast for April 1st 2018 till March 31st 2019, not the consumer sales forecast.

No they're not going to sell 23m to consumers in 2018.

Consoles don't typically sell loads Jan-Mar do they?  I can't imagine they'll be far behind that 20m mark before December ends.  And considering that 20m is, if to be historically believed, a conservative Nintendo number, it'll likely reach that mid December. 



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14 million.



This may be a bit confusing so I'll count from day of release so in my opinion sales of the Switch from beginning of March 2018 to beginning of March 2019 should be something around 10 - 12 million units.
So adding the 15 million units sold during the first year (March 2017 to March 2018) by March 2019 the total sales should be of 25 to 27 million units.



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Qwark said:
I mean I get why Pokemon could really increase sales. But I really doubt animal crossing is as strong as an IP as it was a decade ago.

What makes you think that?

New Leaf which released in 2012/2013 sold the same amount as Wild World which released in 2005 and is the best selling 3DS game in Japan at over 5 million and the 7th best selling 3DS game globally at 11.7 million.

Even the spinoff title released in 2015 sold close to 4 million.



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CrazyGamer2017 said:

This may be a bit confusing so I'll count from day of release so in my opinion sales of the Switch from beginning of March 2018 to beginning of March 2019 should be something around 10 - 12 million units.
So adding the 15 million units sold during the first year (March 2017 to March 2018) by March 2019 the total sales should be of 25 to 27 million units.

Would you mind going into detail why you think sales will be so low?

They are forcasting to ship 20 million from April 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019. Sure, its possible that they miss their forcast but by ~8 million? I doubt thats happening.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

For the calendar year 2018, with Pokémon + a price cut and/or some bundles for the holidays, about 18 millions seems attainable.



I am thinking about 18-20 million. It really depends on what the lineup is for the 2nd half of 2018. E3 will make me sure what the sales will be.

Edit: I just realized that posted here already and I had the same prediction. At least I am consistent.  



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zorg1000 said:
Qwark said:
I mean I get why Pokemon could really increase sales. But I really doubt animal crossing is as strong as an IP as it was a decade ago.

What makes you think that?

New Leaf which released in 2012/2013 sold the same amount as Wild World which released in 2005 and is the best selling 3DS game in Japan at over 5 million and the 7th best selling 3DS game globally at 11.7 million.

Even the spinoff title released in 2015 sold close to 4 million.

I think this game in general fares better as handheld game than as a full blown Console game. Which is kind of what we expect from Switch nowadays. I could be wrong though.

From all the people I know who want a Switch I heard Zelda, Smash, Mario Kart, Mario Oddesey, Pokemon and even Metroid (before both where announced) as main reasons to buy a Switch. Yet I never heard animal crossing as main reason. Perhaps Japan will love animal crossing to death.

As I said I could be wrong but I simply can't see the hype for a new animal crossing outside of fora like these. Anyway my estimate is somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 million, pretty much equal to Playstation 4 sales which I estimate somewhere between 18.5 million and 19.5 million.



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