Welcome to the optimistic side

I think it's possible, but I don't know how long Nintendo will want to push the Switch for, if they try to cut its life short with a successor like the GBA-DS it won't.

Couldn't that be counter-balanced by the fact that Wii's sales were """"mediocre"""" for the last two years? They pretty much did cut the Wii it just wasn't intentional. 

Well, that would be akin to the Wii U being released in mid-2010 rather than late 2012.

Too many factors to conclude at this time. One big one is if they do a mid gen refresh similar to NEW 3DS where more powerful games will not run on OG Switch, but multiplat ports could come to the NEW Switch.

Those that do run on OG Switch would of course have performance boosts on the NEW Switch. I feel like this development COULD push the Switch up to Wii numbers, but nothing is certain.

If they release a Switch 2 however, no as this would be a new console. In any case I see the OG Switch pushing 80-100mil by itself.

It won't when we take a look at both of their performance so far in the second year which is 2008 for the Wii and 2018 for the Switch. In the first quarter of the second year the Wii was able to sell 4.3M units while the Switch is on track to sell ~3M units according to VGC estimates but in the year before their respective years the Switch still wasn't able to beat the Wii in it's first year either and on top of that supply normalized far faster for the Switch than it did for the Wii. Wii's first quarter in it's second year wasn't the strongest outside of the last quarter, that belonged to the second quarter and it's third quarter wasn't all that far behind either in comparison to the rest while it's doubtful that the Switch will maintain a relatively similar momentum with it's lineup throughout the year ... 

To add insult to the injury, the remaining region with the most amount of outstanding supply issues for the Switch isn't as strong as it's predecessor either. Moreover, price cuts, major hardware revisions and multiple ownership (we can rule this out since most of Switch's owners are older males so it's not a "family" system at all) will not be as prevalent either ... 

Labo's pre-order numbers are mediocre so this title is probably not what Nintendo is looking for outside of their staple franchises to push the Switch ... 

I don't think so. But I have a feeling it well outsell the Xbox One.

Nvm... i forgot about Pokémon.

Yeah, i don't think it will outsell the wii, but it will do well. It is currently losing steam though.

The Switch won't be/isn't selling only because of Pokémon, Mario, or other major Nintendo franchises. People are buying the Switch because it is what it is, like with the Wii. Maybe not to the "craze" extent, but definitely in a similar vein.

There are simply too many unknowns at the moment. Is the system even a year old yet? Something like a PS4 will most definitely outsell the Wii. But I can only say that because the system is proven well enough, we know how long Sony typically supports their systems, and because it still leads pretty strong in the market. I don’t see a PS5 until at least 2020.

Nintendo is a mixed bag. I think it mostly depends on their approach. Nintendo doesn’t support their home consoles for nearly as long as their handhelds, good example being Wii U vs 3DS. But at the same time the Switch is a combination of the two, so I have no idea which it’ll swing towards. Another big factor is life. How long will the Switch last? The thing is, the Switch isn’t super powerful so its 3rd party will probably slow in the next few years, ports from other consoles -mainly. But thankfully for Nintendo it doesn’t have to rely on 3rd party. So that’s not really a big deal. But by 2020 the system will be starting to show its age. The Gamecube lasted, what? 5-6yrs? The Wii was like about 6yrs, maybe 7? Wii U was a flop so I won’t count it. But assuming it lasts about 6yrs, then it’ll probably stay around till 2022.

Honestly, there’s so much that could go right or wrong before the answer is more clear that I’m just rambling. I think it will safely sell 80million. I don’t know if it’ll outsell the Wii, but it very well may have a chance.