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Prediction ps4 will sell 130+mill systems.

Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction ps4 will sell 130+mill systems.

Ps4 will end at?

110mill 16 22.22%
 
120mill 24 33.33%
 
130mill 18 25.00%
 
140mill 7 9.72%
 
It will beat ps2. 7 9.72%
 
Total:72
Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

Time will tell, but 2019 is waay to early.

Money rules everything and right now ps4 is making sony more then ps2 ever did, noo way they will just stop that.

 

Times are changing and .2-4 tflop increase is not wat gamers want nowadays,then ps5 will be extremely outdated at launch.

And i donr want to buy a new console every 2 years.



 

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KBG29 said:

This would be a horrible move. If PS5 is that weak, then Sony would very likely be looking at another PS3 situation, only instead of being to expensive and unecissary, it would be to cheap and unimpressive. That would actually be worse, because at least to expensive and unecissary can get cheaper and become a neccesity. To cheap and unimpressive really has no where to turn.

xl-klaudkil said:

Time will tell, but 2019 is waay to early.

Money rules everything and right now ps4 is making sony more then ps2 ever did, noo way they will just stop that.

 

Times are changing and .2-4 tflop increase is not wat gamers want nowadays,then ps5 will be extremely outdated at launch.

And i donr want to buy a new console every 2 years.

I'm sorry, but what the heck are you guys expecting from these new consoles?  They're consoles.  They aren't going to have the most state of the art chipsets in these things, that came out that same year, but still be $399-$449.  Besides, ~12 Tflops and Zen+ is weak for who exactly?  Maybe the top tier of PC gaming enthusiasts.  At the start of the gen, we found out via Steam that over half of the gamers on there had PCs weaker than the PS4.  How many do you think, even if some upgraded, have a PC that have an 8 core Zen CPU, or equivalent, paired with a Vega 64 GPU, or equivalent.  Maybe 25%?  Probably less, I'd say.

These consoles are about getting as much power as you can out of them, while not losing your shirt with a $399-$449 price tag.  Console gamers are going to think they are powerful, even those who also game on PCs, since they most likely have PCs weaker than that.  If you want the newest chips, you can always switch to PC gaming strictly, but be prepared to pay for it.

JRPGfan said:

thismeintiel said:

Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

That all sounds very reasonable and is likely to happend imo.
To those saying its too weak, its not the CPU will be enough to make a impact on games.

Keep price around that 399$ point is much more important than it haveing a few extra Tflops.

Look at the Switch, its 400 Gflops when docked (PS4pro / Xbox One X are like 10 to 15 times as powerfull).
Does it matter? is the switch a flop that cant sell because its underpowered compaired to Sony/MS mid gen refreshed consoles?
its still selling fine.

Exactly.  I don't know about these people who are expecting Zen 3 and Navi+ GPUs in these things, yet don't expect them to be $599+.  Console gamers game because they are getting good specs for a good price.  It's not top of the line, but you don't want to pay for top of the line, so you stick with consoles.  I mean if you want to make a beast of a PC in 2019/2020 for $1000, go right ahead, but don't expect the PS5 to match it.



thismeintiel said:

I'm sorry, but what the heck are you guys expecting from these new consoles?  They're consoles.  They aren't going to have the most state of the art chipsets in these things, that came out that same year, but still be $399-$449.  Besides, ~12 Tflops and Zen+ is weak for who exactly?  Maybe the top tier of PC gaming enthusiasts.  At the start of the gen, we found out via Steam that over half of the gamers on there had PCs weaker than the PS4.  How many do you think, even if some upgraded, have a PC that have an 8 core Zen CPU, or equivalent, paired with a Vega 64 GPU, or equivalent.  Maybe 25%?  Probably less, I'd say.

These consoles are about getting as much power as you can out of them, while not losing your shirt with a $399-$449 price tag.  Console gamers are going to think they are powerful, even those who also game on PCs, since they most likely have PCs weaker than that.  If you want the newest chips, you can always switch to PC gaming strictly, but be prepared to pay for it.


Exactly.  I don't know about these people who are expecting Zen 3 and Navi+ GPUs in these things, yet don't expect them to be $599+.  Console gamers game because they are getting good specs for a good price.  It's not top of the line, but you don't want to pay for top of the line, so you stick with consoles.  I mean if you want to make a beast of a PC in 2019/2020 for $1000, go right ahead, but don't expect the PS5 to match it.

Those of us expecting actual next gen worthy tech, are not suggesting that PS5 will arrive in 2019 or even 2020. Yes, in 2019 or 2020, Ryzen + Navi with 12TFLOPs, 16GB of GRRD6, and a HDD is probably the best you are going to get. The question is, what is the point? This will not deliver anything remotely close to the generation over generation improvement that we have seen between PS Consoles.

Why should Sony release a new PS in 2019 or 2020 if next gen worthy tech is not ready? They can just make another PS4 revision, and continue to expand their userbase, and create good will with the consumers. If they are doing a 7nm revision of the PS4 and PS4 Pro, then a PS4 Premium to hold people over until PS5 is all they need. This will allow them to keep the focus on PS4 while as they start to reach out for the casual crowd with $199.99, $149.99, and $99.99 price points. The most important thing for them is to reach as many people as possible, and get as many people as possible using the PS4 OS, PSN, and the PS Store. Keeping the focus on PS4 a few more years will help them reach a wider audience, and set them up better for a true next gen PS5.

 

PS5 should release either late 2021 or 2022 when they can deliver AMD's Next gen GPU architecture at around 20TFLOPs, 64GB of RAM, and NVMe storage in every unit. That will be possible in the $400 to $500 price range by then, and it will deliver the generation over generation improvement we accustom to from PlayStation. This is the safe bet, as it gives them a steady baseline for years to come. If they drop in 2019 - 2020 with the specs being thrown around, the doors are wide open for competition to come out with devices that greatly outclass the PS5 within 18 to 24 months of release, at lower prices. 



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

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10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL

Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

I'm sure sales figures had an impact on the timing of the Switch.
And like how game development can suddenly move from a current gen system to a next gen system, I'm sure the full details of the next consoles are always subject to change in these situations. Although I have no particular reason to believe unsubstantiated rumors of dev kits, they typically have things like more RAM than the actual consoles have from what I've heard. Developers who are given a leg up in the industry with early dev kits likely sign a contract protecting the console developer from legal repercussions if the final version of the console changes. Anything else would be irresponsible considering the many factors that can change over time that are out of their control.

But either way, if we assume that Sony already decided on final specs for PS5, at the point of time they did so, their current product (PS4) was in a much better position than the PS3 was at the time they decided on the final specs for PS4. And PS3 was replaced after 7 years.
Add in the fact that both PS4 and XBO have mid cycle refresh models to hold some people over that could extend the generation even further, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up lasting longer than their predecessors.

Last edited by Hiku - on 25 March 2018

Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

What am I reading???

Forget sales numbers. Look at install base. Not just that, but look at PS+ subscriptions. Its likw people are forgetting the wholw point of consoles is to sell ga,es and in this gen.... run a service.

And the wait another year thing? Wake the fuck up..... Next gen consoles won't come until 7nm fabrication becomes a thing. Right now at best thats looking at 2020  for 7nm to become mature enough (aka cheap enough) to go into consoles. But lets not even stop there.... say sony and amd design a chipset to leverage 7nm fabrication. And make no mistake they have probably already designed said chipset or are well underway. You know why they haven't released it yet?

No 7nm.

You know what they stand to gain by waiting another year after whenever 7nm actually shows up? Cheaper APUs as a result of improved yeilds. The ONLY thing that will make sony release as early ia possible is if MS is releasing their hardware asap. Thats it. 

And I'm the one that is naive? smh....... do you guys think these companies look forward to releasing new hardware? lol......



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KBG29 said: 

Those of us expecting actual next gen worthy tech, are not suggesting that PS5 will arrive in 2019 or even 2020. Yes, in 2019 or 2020, Ryzen + Navi with 12TFLOPs, 16GB of GRRD6, and a HDD is probably the best you are going to get. The question is, what is the point? This will not deliver anything remotely close to the generation over generation improvement that we have seen between PS Consoles.

Why should Sony release a new PS in 2019 or 2020 if next gen worthy tech is not ready? They can just make another PS4 revision, and continue to expand their userbase, and create good will with the consumers. If they are doing a 7nm revision of the PS4 and PS4 Pro, then a PS4 Premium to hold people over until PS5 is all they need. This will allow them to keep the focus on PS4 while as they start to reach out for the casual crowd with $199.99, $149.99, and $99.99 price points. The most important thing for them is to reach as many people as possible, and get as many people as possible using the PS4 OS, PSN, and the PS Store. Keeping the focus on PS4 a few more years will help them reach a wider audience, and set them up better for a true next gen PS5.

 

PS5 should release either late 2021 or 2022 when they can deliver AMD's Next gen GPU architecture at around 20TFLOPs, 64GB of RAM, and NVMe storage in every unit. That will be possible in the $400 to $500 price range by then, and it will deliver the generation over generation improvement we accustom to from PlayStation. This is the safe bet, as it gives them a steady baseline for years to come. If they drop in 2019 - 2020 with the specs being thrown around, the doors are wide open for competition to come out with devices that greatly outclass the PS5 within 18 to 24 months of release, at lower prices. 

Errrr..... no. Doesn't work that way. Unless of course you're just living out some kinda tech fantasy.

Say in 2020 sony releases a console with the at the time 6-12 month old 7nm fab process. And say they have a GPU that is oushing say 12TF.

If sony waits till 2020.... that doesn,t automatically mean they will be using some sort of next next gwn tech and be able to go from 12TF to 20TF. Just not possible. The most they get from waiting a year or two is that yeilds improve at 7nm chip foundaries which means they save money which could also mean that they could go with a slightly more powerful version of whatever they were workng on... either from uppping the clocks a bit (due to processs maturity) or adding a few more cores in there.

So basically, they may go from 12TF to like 14TF/15TF at best. Or stick with the 12TF but release at a lower price point. Or release it anyway and make a killing at retail per console sold.

And dont worry.... nothing will be able to outclass anything untill 3nm chips become available. Which could very well be by 2024-2026.



Intrinsic said:
Errorist76 said:

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

What am I reading???

Forget sales numbers. Look at install base. Not just that, but look at PS+ subscriptions. Its likw people are forgetting the wholw point of consoles is to sell ga,es and in this gen.... run a service.

And the wait another year thing? Wake the fuck up..... Next gen consoles won't come until 7nm fabrication becomes a thing. Right now at best thats looking at 2020  for 7nm to become mature enough (aka cheap enough) to go into consoles. But lets not even stop there.... say sony and amd design a chipset to leverage 7nm fabrication. And make no mistake they have probably already designed said chipset or are well underway. You know why they haven't released it yet?

No 7nm.

You know what they stand to gain by waiting another year after whenever 7nm actually shows up? Cheaper APUs as a result of improved yeilds. The ONLY thing that will make sony release as early ia possible is if MS is releasing their hardware asap. Thats it. 

And I'm the one that is naive? smh....... do you guys think these companies look forward to releasing new hardware? lol......

We’ll see about that and who wakes up when. We'll speak again next year.



I think it's possible if the PS5 comes out until 2020.



dS ≥ dq/T

 

If you heard about orbis, then you should have heard about durango. Both of which were the actual real "secret" code names for the PS4 and XB1. The same place those rumors came from even went as far as point out that they would be using almost identical hardware and both using the jaguar CPU. It pointed out that MS was using GB of DDr3 ram.... only thing it got wrong was that the PS4 would have 4GB of Ram.... which was what leda lot to be saying it was going to be dead on arrival.

Compared to all that what we are getting now is what? Devkits are in the hands of third party devs? Lol...I could say that too like anyone else.

And to whoever said sony is getting better with leaks now? I don't know where they are getting that from but its not true..... after all didn't we know everything about the "neo" before it was even announced?

And even the 4GB could be accurate. I heard somewhere that Mark Cerny convinced Sony to put 8GB GDDR5 at the last minute.



Intrinsic said:
KBG29 said: 

Those of us expecting actual next gen worthy tech, are not suggesting that PS5 will arrive in 2019 or even 2020. Yes, in 2019 or 2020, Ryzen + Navi with 12TFLOPs, 16GB of GRRD6, and a HDD is probably the best you are going to get. The question is, what is the point? This will not deliver anything remotely close to the generation over generation improvement that we have seen between PS Consoles.

Why should Sony release a new PS in 2019 or 2020 if next gen worthy tech is not ready? They can just make another PS4 revision, and continue to expand their userbase, and create good will with the consumers. If they are doing a 7nm revision of the PS4 and PS4 Pro, then a PS4 Premium to hold people over until PS5 is all they need. This will allow them to keep the focus on PS4 while as they start to reach out for the casual crowd with $199.99, $149.99, and $99.99 price points. The most important thing for them is to reach as many people as possible, and get as many people as possible using the PS4 OS, PSN, and the PS Store. Keeping the focus on PS4 a few more years will help them reach a wider audience, and set them up better for a true next gen PS5.

 

PS5 should release either late 2021 or 2022 when they can deliver AMD's Next gen GPU architecture at around 20TFLOPs, 64GB of RAM, and NVMe storage in every unit. That will be possible in the $400 to $500 price range by then, and it will deliver the generation over generation improvement we accustom to from PlayStation. This is the safe bet, as it gives them a steady baseline for years to come. If they drop in 2019 - 2020 with the specs being thrown around, the doors are wide open for competition to come out with devices that greatly outclass the PS5 within 18 to 24 months of release, at lower prices. 

Errrr..... no. Doesn't work that way. Unless of course you're just living out some kinda tech fantasy.

Say in 2020 sony releases a console with the at the time 6-12 month old 7nm fab process. And say they have a GPU that is oushing say 12TF.

If sony waits till 2020.... that doesn,t automatically mean they will be using some sort of next next gwn tech and be able to go from 12TF to 20TF. Just not possible. The most they get from waiting a year or two is that yeilds improve at 7nm chip foundaries which means they save money which could also mean that they could go with a slightly more powerful version of whatever they were workng on... either from uppping the clocks a bit (due to processs maturity) or adding a few more cores in there.

So basically, they may go from 12TF to like 14TF/15TF at best. Or stick with the 12TF but release at a lower price point. Or release it anyway and make a killing at retail per console sold.

And dont worry.... nothing will be able to outclass anything untill 3nm chips become available. Which could very well be by 2024-2026.

I am talking 7nm vs 7nm+. If they launch in 2019 it will be extremely earlier 7nm parts that will have to make sacrifices to make sure the first units are sustainable, meaning they won't get the full benefits on 7nm. A 2020 release would have more stable fabrication, and allow them to up the clocks, and get more chips that are clean enough to handle the task.

By late 2021 or early 2022 7nm+ or 5nm if they decide to call it that will be available, and it will allow for some significant gains, and it will launch AMD's next gen GPU tech, which will be the foundation of AMD based graphics for years and years to come. This is absolutely the best time to launch, because they will be able to pair Ryzen, Next Gen, 64GB of RAM, and SSD, all techs that offer a next gen improvement over the PS4 tech. That will set them up very nicely for a PS5 Pro on 3nm.  



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL