Who wins? | |||
| PS4 | 66 | 40.24% | |
| NSW | 84 | 51.22% | |
| Tie | 14 | 8.54% | |
| Total: | 164 | ||
| thismeintiel said: I think Switch is going to pretty much match the PS4's Dec 2015. Maybe outperform it by ~50K-100K, leading to a close victory for the PS4. BTW, Zorg, were you planning on doing this again next year? This was a interesting one to follow. |
Sure, I'll do it again next year.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Sure, I'll do it again next year. |
Sweet. I'll be there.
| thismeintiel said: I think Switch is going to pretty much match the PS4's Dec 2015. Maybe outperform it by ~50K-100K, leading to a close victory for the PS4. BTW, Zorg, were you planning on doing this again next year? This was a interesting one to follow. |
The Switch sold 1.5 mil last year with no new system seller released in either that month or the preceding one. You think it will be flat YoY with Smash releasing within the first week of the month?
Despite the fact it just sold 1.35 mil in Novemberr and December is usually much stronger for Nintendo?
Despite the fact it was just up YoY 75% for November? If it is up by even half that percentage in December YoY, it will beat the PS4.
Nuvendil said:
The Switch sold 1.5 mil last year with no new system seller released in either that month or the preceding one. You think it will be flat YoY with Smash releasing within the first week of the month? Despite the fact it just sold 1.35 mil in Novemberr and December is usually much stronger for Nintendo? Despite the fact it was just up YoY 75% for November? If it is up by even half that percentage in December YoY, it will beat the PS4. |
Last year, December included Cyber Monday, which has reportedly become just as large as BF in the last year or so. This year does not. You also have the fact that the Switch actually had deals this BF/CM. Last year it had none. That will also shift sales from Dec to Nov. That's a lot of missing sales that the Switch has to make up for in Dec. I think Smash can definitely make up for that, but it's not going to easily blow away last year's numbers, which is why I could see it doing 1.4M-1.6M.
thismeintiel said:
Last year, December included Cyber Monday, which has reportedly become just as large as BF in the last year or so. This year does not. You also have the fact that the Switch actually had deals this BF/CM. Last year it had none. That will also shift sales from Dec to Nov. That's a lot of missing sales that the Switch has to make up for in Dec. I think Smash can definitely make up for that, but it's not going to easily blow away last year's numbers, which is why I could see it doing 1.4M-1.6M. |
Holiday momentum for Nintendo is real though, CM or not. Nintendo systems are usually x2 over November. I dont expect that much this time around since first off Switch had a huge November and secondly as you already mentioned, because of CM not being a part of December NPD. But something around 1.4-1.5 multiplier should certainly be possible. 1.4-1.6M is lowballing the sales and I'm 100% confident in that. 1.4M is practically flat with November and I dont think that has ever happend with a nintendo system before so I'm sticking with my confidence here =)
But I agree with your reasoning, I just dont fully agree with the outcome of it =)
thismeintiel said:
Last year, December included Cyber Monday, which has reportedly become just as large as BF in the last year or so. This year does not. You also have the fact that the Switch actually had deals this BF/CM. Last year it had none. That will also shift sales from Dec to Nov. That's a lot of missing sales that the Switch has to make up for in Dec. I think Smash can definitely make up for that, but it's not going to easily blow away last year's numbers, which is why I could see it doing 1.4M-1.6M. |
WE HAVE credible rumours that switch is very much upwards of 2 mil maybe even 2.5mil+. The switch is easily the winner
Wa
Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also
Last year Switch only had Xenoblade 2 while this year Smash Ultimate(the biggest exclusive) and 2 casual games Poke Let's GO and SMP to help with Switch momentums in December.
Like Mat Said, cyber Monday has hugely overblown its popularity and its effect on console sales. This year switch had an extra Saturday in the busiest shopping week.
December added, just estimated at the moment but looks like a slim victory for PS4
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
So PS4 eeks out a narrow victory. Incidentally, Switch has now had the best December of the generation and PS4 and Switch are essentially tied for best Holiday (Nov+Dec) performance of the gen.
A battle to the end. Great thread zorg1000. I suppose the battle continues eh?
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