In progress NPD predicting tool

LipeJJ

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LipeJJ on 19 October 2018

Great work.

Switch seems on fire this month thanks to the bundles. November will be a decisive month.

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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Shaqazooloo0 on 20 October 2018

So, I guess I should be following this more closely then. Great job guys and thanks for the awesome work!

So I guess so far the Switch is taking October.

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jason1637 on 20 October 2018

Glad to see the took worked for September

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Symbios63 on 20 October 2018

10/20/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 53 (-6) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 62 (-8) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 83 (-33) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 100 (-7) - 481.00$

PS4 : 18 points (-34) ; XBO : 0 points (-1) ; NS : 102 + 48 + 39 = 189 points (-22)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 31 (-3) - 499.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 36 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 40 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 44 (-5) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 55 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 58 (-10) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 59 (-4) - 299.99$
9 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 63 (+10) - 359.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 70 (+1) - 299.99$
11 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 75 (-6) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 98 + 90 + 72 = 260 points (-2) ; XBO : 46 + 43 + 31 + 26 = 146 points (-20) ; NS : 80 + 64 + 42 + 38 = 224 points (-6)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 5 (-2)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 6 (-1)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 11 (+1) - November 16th
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 14 (-1)
5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 15 (-5) - November 16th
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 46 (-3)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 74 (-5)
8 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 85 (+33)
9 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 87 (-6)
10 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 110 (-12)
11 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 173 (-50) - November 9th

Out of Top 100 :

12 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 196 (R)
13 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 199 (-9)

PS4 : 200 + 106 + 78 = 384 points (-6) ; XBO : 46 points (-9) ; NS : 200 + 180 + 66 + 64 = 510 points (+10)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 902.1 points (-8.8) ; Month Average : 786.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 570.1 points (-33.6) ; Month Average : 582.3 points/day ; 0.74 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 184.9 points (-17.9) ; Month Average : 266.5 points/day ; 0.34 (-0.01)

LipeJJ

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LipeJJ on 20 October 2018

I wonder how things will look once RDR2 is out.

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

JRPGfan

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JRPGfan on 21 October 2018

Megiddo said:

Symbios63 said:
September Summaries :

2) With Preorders from last months included (177.6 points/day for PS4 ; 39.2 points/day for XBO)

Overall : 1) PS4 : 503.2 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 351.7 points/day (0.70) ; 3) XBO : 226.8 points/day (0.45)

Score another win for this tool!

PS4 takes September with leaked ratios from NPD of around

PS4: 1.00
NS: 0.62
XBO: 0.41

This continues to be extremely accurate tool at not only picking the winner, but also a solid ballpark estimate for the ratios of hardware sold.

Hell yeah!
Tool is awesome (even if both XB & Switch where slightly over estimated by tool).

with a base of 425k, this is what the tool predicted:
PS4 = 425k
NSW = 297k (37k over)
XB1 = 191k (16k over)

Pretty darn close all things considered.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 October 2018

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Nuvendil on 21 October 2018

JRPGfan said:

Megiddo said:

Score another win for this tool!

PS4 takes September with leaked ratios from NPD of around

PS4: 1.00
NS: 0.62
XBO: 0.41

This continues to be extremely accurate tool at not only picking the winner, but also a solid ballpark estimate for the ratios of hardware sold.

Hell yeah!
Tool is awesome (even if both XB & Switch where slightly over estimated by tool).

with a base of 425k, this is what the tool predicted:
PS4 = 425k
NSW = 297k (37k over)
XB1 = 191k (16k over)

Pretty darn close all things considered.

This is somewhat guess work from me, but I think that spikes generated by new SKU introductions sometimes distort the tool slightly.

This next quarter will be interesting though. October through December was the trouble period for Amazon's accuracy due to how crazy things get so it will be interesting to see if this tool adequately compensates.

globalisateur

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globalisateur on 21 October 2018

That's it, the RDR2 Pro bundle just passed the Smash bundle on Gamestop. But not sure if it's going to be enough to help PS4 win the month.

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Symbios63 on 21 October 2018

10/21/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 26 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 47 (+6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 59 (+3) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 100 (-17) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 1 point (-17) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 100 + 58 + 42 = 200 points (+11)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 31 (-) - 499.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 40 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 44 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 54 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 60 (-1) - 299.99$
8 (+3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 66 (+9) - 299.99$
9 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 77 (-7) - 299.99$
10 (N) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle 2 - 86 (N) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 58 (-10) - 499.99$
9 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 63 (+10) - 359.99$

PS4 : 98 + 90 + 72 + 15 = 275 points (+15) ; XBO : 47 + 35 + 24 = 106 points (-40) ; NS : 80 + 64 + 41 = 185 points (-39)

- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 5 (+1)
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 6 (-1)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 8 (+3) - November 16th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 16 (-2)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 22 (-7) - November 16th
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 50 (-4)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 83 (-9)
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 88 (-3)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 90 (-3)
10 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 127 (-17)
11 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 164 (R)
12 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 170 (+3) - November 9th
13 (R) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 189 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 102 + 68 = 370 points (-14) ; XBO : 37 + 19 + 6 = 62 points (+16) ; NS : 200 + 175 + 64 + 62 = 501 points (-9)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 894.1 points (-8.0) ; Month Average : 793.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 545.5 points (-24.6) ; Month Average : 579.9 points/day ; 0.73 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 195.3 points (+10.4) ; Month Average : 261.7 points/day ; 0.33 (-0.01)

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Miyamotoo on 22 October 2018

How much weeks are tracked in October NPD sales?

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