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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Madword on 23 September 2018

Yeah I dont see cod or AC pushing consoles much at this point (they'll push some but would suspect low tens of thousands at best). RDR2 though, that is the one that should push consoles, and with the previews going exceptionally well, its going to be yet another big push. How many of those users are not those that want Spiderman, now that is interesting...

Could actually see Spiderman doing well in October as some users buying a PS4 for RDR2 and Spiderman, i.e RDR2 pushing them to get a console and Spiderman being a 2nd purchase.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

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Symbios63 on 23 September 2018

09/23/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (-5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 58 (-5) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (-14) - 525.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-9) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 98 + 24 + 2 = 124 points (-33) ; XBO : 43 points (-5) ; NS : 120 + 72 = 192 points (-15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 14 (-7) - 299.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 16 (R) - Sold Out
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black 2 - 21 (R) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (-5) - Sold out
8 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 62 (+2) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 80 (+31) - 299.99$
13 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 85 (+10) - 499.99$
14 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 104 (-49) - 399.00$
15 (-2) - XBox One X Scorpio - 109 (+54) - 499.99$
16 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 166 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 160 + 90 + 49 = 474 points (+290) ; XBO : 46 points (+27) ; NS : 72 + 18 = 90 points (+45)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 594.4 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 346.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.82 (-0.03)
3 - XBO : 149.5 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 250.7 points/day ; 0.72 (-0.06)




Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 772.0 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 524.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 188.7 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 289.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.04)
3 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.54 (-0.02)



Kai_Mao on 23 September 2018

Kinda nice that the Pokemon Let's Go Bundles are doing ok in terms of preorders. Smash, I knew it'll be more than fine. I was a little more worried about Pokemon due to the nature of the Let's Go games and the mixed reception it's getting from the hardcore fanbase.



globalisateur on 23 September 2018
Symbios63 said:
09/23/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (-5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 58 (-5) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (-14) - 525.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-9) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 98 + 24 + 2 = 124 points (-33) ; XBO : 43 points (-5) ; NS : 120 + 72 = 192 points (-15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 14 (-7) - 299.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 16 (R) - Sold Out
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black 2 - 21 (R) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (-5) - Sold out
8 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 62 (+2) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 80 (+31) - 299.99$
13 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 85 (+10) - 499.99$
14 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 104 (-49) - 399.00$
15 (-2) - XBox One X Scorpio - 109 (+54) - 499.99$
16 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 166 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 160 + 90 + 49 = 474 points (+290) ; XBO : 46 points (+27) ; NS : 72 + 18 = 90 points (+45)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 594.4 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 346.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.82 (-0.03)
3 - XBO : 149.5 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 250.7 points/day ; 0.72 (-0.06)




Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 772.0 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 524.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 188.7 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 289.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.04)
3 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.54 (-0.02)

Have you noticed that this Pro (21st rank at Gamestop) is only a pre-order  ? it's planned to ship in october.



Bofferbrauer2 on 23 September 2018
globalisateur said:
Symbios63 said:
09/23/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (-5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 58 (-5) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (-14) - 525.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-9) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 98 + 24 + 2 = 124 points (-33) ; XBO : 43 points (-5) ; NS : 120 + 72 = 192 points (-15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 14 (-7) - 299.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 16 (R) - Sold Out
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black 2 - 21 (R) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (-5) - Sold out
8 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-2) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 62 (+2) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 80 (+31) - 299.99$
13 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 85 (+10) - 499.99$
14 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 104 (-49) - 399.00$
15 (-2) - XBox One X Scorpio - 109 (+54) - 499.99$
16 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 166 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 160 + 90 + 49 = 474 points (+290) ; XBO : 46 points (+27) ; NS : 72 + 18 = 90 points (+45)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 594.4 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 346.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.82 (-0.03)
3 - XBO : 149.5 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 250.7 points/day ; 0.72 (-0.06)




Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 772.0 points (+290.0) ; Month Average : 524.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 188.7 points (+35.1) ; Month Average : 289.9 points/day ; 0.55 (-0.04)
3 - NS : 280.0 points (+45.0) ; Month Average : 283.6 points/day ; 0.54 (-0.02)

Have you noticed that this Pro (21st rank at Gamestop) is only a pre-order  ? it's planned to ship in october.

I wasn't exactly sure what to do with it when I sent it to Symbios or if that date wouldn't change. It could be pushed to next month though since it's noted to come out October 12 right now.

Speaking of Months, what is the period for NPD September?



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Symbios63 on 24 September 2018
Bofferbrauer2 said:
globalisateur said:

Have you noticed that this Pro (21st rank at Gamestop) is only a pre-order  ? it's planned to ship in october.

I wasn't exactly sure what to do with it when I sent it to Symbios or if that date wouldn't change. It could be pushed to next month though since it's noted to come out October 12 right now.

Speaking of Months, what is the period for NPD September?

I did not notice the release date, i wiil correct this in today's update, thanks (points will be transfered to october).



Symbios63 on 24 September 2018

09/24/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (+6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 57 (+1) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-9) - 525.00$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-9) - 585.00$

PS4 : 110 + 15 = 125 points (+1) ; XBO : 44 points (+1) ; NS : 135 + 76 = 211 points (+19)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$ - November
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$ - November
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$ - November

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$ - November
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (+1) - 399.99$ - November
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 4 (+1) - 399.99$ - November
4 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black 2 - 11 (+10) - 399.99$ - October
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 19 (-5) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 20 (-4) - Sold Out
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 37 (-1) - Sold out
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 40 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 70 (-8) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 85 (-5) - 299.99$
13 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 101 (+3) - 399.00$
14 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 113 (-28) - 499.99$ - October
15 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 115 (-6) - 499.99$
16 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 170 (-4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 82 + 50 = 297 points (-17) ; XBO : 43 points (-3) ; NS : 165 + 66 + 16 = 247 points (-23)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 418.2 points (-16.2) ; Month Average : 342.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 452.2 points (-7.8) ; Month Average : 330.5 points/day ; 0.96
3 - XBO : 146.6 points (-2.9) ; Month Average : 246.2 points/day ; 0.72




Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 595.8 points (-16.2) ; Month Average : 520.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 452.2 points (-7.8) ; Month Average : 330.5 points/day ; 0.63
3 - XBO : 185.8 points (-2.9) ; Month Average : 285.4 points/day ; 0.55


Ok, first big thank you to the guys watching this thread closely to point out when mistakes are done.
Points due to "Gamestop PS4 pro" with a release date in October was removed from yesterday update PS4 total and will count toward October NPD.
Points due to NS fortnite bundle have been wrongly not counted so far as the release date is October 5th which is included in September NPD period. That was corrected as well.

Finally, Best Buy list has been dead for a week now. I can get a ranking by typing "Video Game Console" in the searchbox but the list does not include games which is a problem...Any idea ?



JRPGfan on 24 September 2018

Symbios63 love your graphs :) Keep up the good work.



JSG87 on 24 September 2018

Switch and ps4 look very competitive thanks to the Switch bundles. Very impressive so far.



Ryng on 24 September 2018
chakkra said:

I don't think there was ever any doubt about that.  I'm more curious to see if the X1 will finally be able to beat the Switch.

Why would anyone expect XBO to beat Switch in September tho?

There are really no reason to expect that, Switch sold 25% more in August when XBO had a massive Xbox one X promotion, September won't have that deal, and even with that why would September be different than August?

 

I could see MAYBE October because of Red dead redemption 2 and Black Ops IIII, but eh i don't know, Switch will have Mario Party 10 and some days of the new Fornite bundle...