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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

09/16/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (+15) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 48 (+14) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 68 (-1) - 585.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (R) - 518.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 33 + 26 = 161 points (+52) ; XBO : 56 points (+17) ; NS : 140 + 88 = 228 points (+4)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 2 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 3 (-) - 499.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 4 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 5 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
7 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-3) - 399.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 8 (+1) - 499.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 9 (-1) - 299.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 (-2) - 299.99$
11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (-2) - 299.99$
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 44 (+7) - 499.99$ - November
13 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 89 (N) - 299.99$ - November

Out of Top 100 :

12 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 22 (N) - 499.99$ - November

PS4 : 210 + 185 + 180 = 575 points (-10) ; XBO : 205 + 200 + 195 + 190 + 175 + 170 = 1135 points (+10) ; NS : 108 + 98 = 206 points (-11)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 6 (-2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 47 (-7) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 48 (-7) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 49 (-7) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (-7) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 73 (-26) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 123 (-35) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 172 (-62) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-4) - 299.99$
12 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 174 (-29) - 499.99$

PS4 : 78 points (-26) ; XBO : 15 points (-31) ; NS : 39 points (-52)



Around the Network
pitzy272 said:
So Shadow of the TR seems on track to bomba. Not even in the top 60 the day after its release on Gamestop. And #30 (PS4) and #62 (XBO) on Amazon.

RotTR already felt very samey compared to TR1, and Shadow didn’t look like it was bringing much new. Think the series has grown stale to many.

Apparently in the UK its down over 70% compaired to Rise of the Tomb Raider.... if its like that other places (eu, us, ect) than yeah.
US sales dont seem that impressive judgeing from Amazon.



09/17/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 41 (-16) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 44 (+4) - 282.88$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 64 (+11) - 525.00$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 66 (+2) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 70 + 37 + 35 = 142 points (-19) ; XBO : 64 points (+8) ; NS : 140 + 88 = 228 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-26) - 299.99$
2 (+58) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 29 (-7) - 299.99$
3 (+8) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (-16) - 299.99$
4 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 45 (-43) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 59 (-51) - 499.99$
6 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (-60) - 299.99$
7 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 75 (-72) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 5 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
7 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-3) - 399.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 9 (-1) - 299.99
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 44 (+7) - 499.99$ - November
13 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 89 (N) - 299.99$ - November

PS4 : 98 points (-477) ; XBO : 62 + 42 + 37 + 26 = 167 points (-968) ; NS : 94 + 66 = 160 points (-46)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (+1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 7 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 48 (-1) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 49 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 51 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 67 (+6) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 140 (-17) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 195 (-23) - 499.99$
11 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 196 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 points (+6) ; XBO : 3 points (-12) ; NS : 31 points (-8)



September Numbers, disjointed shoulder edition !! :

Overall (09/17, without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 217.2 points (-13.0) ; Month Average : 343.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 245.4 points (-5.8) ; Month Average : 296.0 points/day ; 0.86
3 - XBO : 113.9 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 295.4 points/day ; 0.86




Overall (09/17, with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 394.8 points (-13.0) ; Month Average : 521.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 153.1 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 334.6 points/day ; 0.64
3 - NS : 245.4 points (-5.8) ; Month Average : 296.0 points/day ; 0.57




Preorder points were added as a daily average (177.6 for the PS4, 39.2 for the XBO).
Based on August NPD, points from PS4 million edition are now officialy ignored.



August Tool vs NPD :

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 273.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 223.1 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day



Tool : 1) PS4 : 315.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.99) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.89)
NPD : 1) NS : 203k (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 197k (0.97) ; 3) XBO : 162k (0.80)

So, even if we got the order wrong, this was a good month for the tool.
We now have a better idea on how to handle very limited bundles.

And I will now stop spamming this thread...



Around the Network

09/18/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 22 (+19) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 35 (+9) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (-13) - 525.00$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 66 (+2) - 585.00$

PS4 : 108 + 24 = 132 points (-10) ; XBO : 82 points (+18) ; NS : 145 + 88 = 233 points (+5)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (+4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (+4) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+7) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (N) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (+3) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (+3) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-8) - 499.99$
9 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (N) - 399.99$
10 (N) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (N) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (+8) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (+6) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (+22)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 39 (+9) - Sold out
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 40 (+9) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 41 (+9) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 42 (+9) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 68 (-1) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 132 (+8) - 299.99$
10 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 182 (+14) - 499.99$
11 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 196 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

10 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 195 (-23) - 499.99$

PS4 : 84 points (-) ; XBO : 0 point (-3) ; NS : 35 points (+4)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 210.8 points (-6.4) ; Month Average : 335.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 257.8 points (+12.4) ; Month Average : 293.8 points/day ; 0.88 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 130.3 points (+16.4) ; Month Average : 285.7 points/day ; 0.85 (-0.01)


Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 388.4 points (-6.4) ; Month Average : 513.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 169.5 points (+16.4) ; Month Average : 324.9 points/day ; 0.63 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 257.8 points (+12.4) ; Month Average : 293.8 points/day ; 0.57 (-)



Symbios63 said:

September Numbers, disjointed shoulder edition !! :

Overall (09/17, without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 217.2 points (-13.0) ; Month Average : 343.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 245.4 points (-5.8) ; Month Average : 296.0 points/day ; 0.86
3 - XBO : 113.9 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 295.4 points/day ; 0.86




Overall (09/17, with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 394.8 points (-13.0) ; Month Average : 521.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 153.1 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 334.6 points/day ; 0.64
3 - NS : 245.4 points (-5.8) ; Month Average : 296.0 points/day ; 0.57




Preorder points were added as a daily average (177.6 for the PS4, 39.2 for the XBO).
Based on August NPD, points from PS4 million edition are now officialy ignored.

Looks like the PS4 really starts to need those preorders to stay ahead of the competition.

Can't wait to see those with and without graphs for the next 2 months with both Nintendo and Xbox having bundles that sell rather well.



But ps4 come with bundles  rdr2, cod bo4, fifa 19 too, i guess... This fall is insane.

Last edited by gemini_d@rk - on 19 September 2018

Symbios63 said:
August Tool vs NPD :

Amazon : 1) NS : 221.3 points/day ; 2) XBO : 51.6 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 47.1 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 346.2 points/day ; 2) XBO : 290.7 points/day ; 3) PS4 : 273.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 223.1 points/day ; 2) XBO : 116.2 points/day ; 3) NS : 65.0 points/day



Tool : 1) PS4 : 315.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 311.3 points/day (0.99) ; 3) XBO : 280.3 points/day (0.89)
NPD : 1) NS : 203k (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 197k (0.97) ; 3) XBO : 162k (0.80)

So, even if we got the order wrong, this was a good month for the tool.
We now have a better idea on how to handle very limited bundles.

And I will now stop spamming this thread...

Well done, dude! You’re killing it! This is much better than Amazon alone. 



09/19/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-5) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 27 (-5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 40 (-5) - 282.88$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 87 (-10) - 525.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 97 (R) - 585.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 98 + 14 + 4 = 116 points (-16) ; XBO : 72 points (-10) ; NS : 120 + 86 = 206 points (-27)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 42 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 56 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 83 (-) - 499.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 86 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 100 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 70 + 45 + 40 + 18 = 173 points (-) ; NS : 102 + 80 = 182 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 5 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 8 (-2) - 399.99$
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 24 (N) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 31 (+8) - Sold out
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 32 (+8) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 33 (+8) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 34 (+8) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 48 (+20) - 299.99$
10 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 51 (R) - 399.00$
11 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 102 (+30) - 299.99$
12 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 128 (+68) - 499.99$
13 (R) - XBox One X Scorpio - 157 (R) - 499.99$
14 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 161 (+21) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 104 + 100 = 204 points (+120) ; XBO : 22 points (+22) ; NS : 50 points (+15)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - PS4 : 318.0 points (+107.2) ; Month Average : 334.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 251.2 points (-6.6) ; Month Average : 291.4 points/day ; 0.87 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 148.5 points (+18.2) ; Month Average : 278.1 points/day ; 0.83 (-0.02)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 495.6 points (+107.2) ; Month Average : 512.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 187.7 points (+18.2) ; Month Average : 317.3 points/day ; 0.62 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 251.2 points (-6.6) ; Month Average : 291.4 points/day ; 0.57 (-)