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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Megiddo said:
jason1637 said:
Did PS4 fall off a cliff or something?

Nope. Someone requested an illogical change which Symbios for who knows why actually heeded. I would have thought the creator of this algorithmic pattern to be more informed on the factors and what each daily ranking represents (it's not on a single day but rather on a rolling period). Oh well, we'll see how it all shakes out.

Remember that this is still an in progress tool. This is a new situation.

I will give August results with all three methods so we can see which one is the closest from NPD results. There will be no official change untill then.

This tool was and still is built empirically. The august NPD results will tell us the best way to handle those very limited editions in the future (the same way March and April NPD results helped us adjust the formula).

You may totally be right though...so far, I do not favor any method (I know about the rolling period very well but the Gamestop list still feels a bit off...we will see !)

edit : oh, and I will post today update tomorrow, I have numbers but no time ;)



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08/30/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+9) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 31 (+15) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (+35) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 52 (+3) - 282.88$
5 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 90 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 54 points (+37) ; XBO : 49 + 11 = 60 points (+14) ; NS : 150 + 90 = 240 points (+72) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+3) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-) - 399.99$
4 (R) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 8 (R) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 20 (+1) - 299.99$
6 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 33 (+9) - 499.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 88 (-10) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 180 + 175 = 560 points (+190) ; NS : 200 + 110 = 310 points (+5) ; XBO : 115 + 86 + 13 = 214 points (+13) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 10 (R) - 399.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 14 (-1) - Sold out
3 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 21 (-2) - 499.99$
4 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 41 (-3) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 42 (-3) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 43 (-3) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 50 (N) - 499.99$
8 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 86 (+93) - 399.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 95 (+8) - 299.99$
10 (-3) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 99 (-7) - 499.99$
11 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 103 (-5) - 299.99$
12 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 118 (-13) - 299.99$
13 (-7) - Xbox One X Scorpio - 120 (-73) - 499.99$
14 (-3) - XBox One X 1 NBA 2K19 - 139 (-21) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

13 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 182 (-17) - 299.99$

PS4 : 180 + 110 + 110 + 108 + 66 + 42 = 616 points (+28) ; XBO : 160 + 52 + 41 = 253 points (-76) ; NS : 49 points (-15) ; PS4 (September) : 190 points (+190)



08/31/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+4) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 37 (+12) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 43 (+9) - 282.88$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 91 (-1) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 points (+24) ; XBO : 66 + 10 = 76 points (+26) ; NS : 150 + 98 = 248 points (+8) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (+3) - 399.99$
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+7) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 17 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 27 (+6) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 58 (+30) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (R) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 8 (R) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)

PS4 : 210 + 195 = 405 points (-155) ; NS : 205 + 145 = 350 points (+40) ; XBO : 130 + 98 + 43 = 271 points (+57) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 7 (+3) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-8) - 499.99$
3 (+4) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 32 (+18) - 499.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 36 (-22) - Sold out
5 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (+4) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (+4) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (+4) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 79 (+16) - 299.99$
9 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 98 (+5) - 299.99$
10 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 112 (+6) - 299.99$
11 (-1) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 140 (-41) - 499.99$
12 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 155 (-69) - 399.99$
13 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (N) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

13 (-7) - Xbox One X Scorpio - 120 (-73) - 499.99$
14 (-3) - XBox One X 1 NBA 2K19 - 139 (-21) - 499.99$

PS4 : 125 + 120 + 120 + 115 + 45 + 23 = 548 points (-70) ; XBO : 140 + 31 + 8 = 179 points (-74) ; NS : 54 points (+5) ; PS4 (September) : 195 points (+5)


Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 691.4 points ; Month Average : 448.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 322.4 points ; Month Average : 311.4 points/day ; 0.70
3 - XBO : 382.2 points ; Month Average : 284.8 points/day ; 0.64



09/01/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 36 (+7) - 282.88$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 48 (-11) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 94 (-3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 56 points (-22) ; XBO : 80 + 7 = 87 points (+11) ; NS : 135 + 102 = 237 points (-11) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (-2) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 10 (+7) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 24 (+3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 58 (+30) - 499.99$

PS4 : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-15) ; NS : 210 + 155 = 365 points (+15) ; XBO : 165 + 104 = 269 points (-2) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro Spiderman Bundle - 5 (+2) - 399.99$
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 500 Million Ultimate Bundle - 17 (+19) - Sold out
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 28 (+4) - 499.99$
4 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (+1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
5 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (+1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (+1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (+15) - 299.99$
8 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 86 (+26) - 299.99$
9 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 106 (+49) - 399.99$
10 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 111 (-13) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

2 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-8) - 499.99$
11 (-1) - Xbox One X 1Tb - 140 (-41) - 499.99$
13 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (N) - 499.99$

PS4 : 170 + 125 + 120 + 120 + 66 + 47 = 648 points (+100) ; XBO : 0 point (-179) ; NS : 45 points (-9) ; PS4 (September) : 200 points (+5)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 770.8 points (+79.4) ; Month Average : 459.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 307.6 points (-14.8) ; Month Average : 311.3 points/day ; 0.68
3 - XBO : 160.4 points (-221.8) ; Month Average : 280.3 points/day ; 0.61

I will do the point calculation for today and tomorrow on monday.

Not a good day for XBO...

When does "NPD September" start ?

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 03 September 2018

Symbios63 said:

When does "NPD September" start ?

I believe tomorrow



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Symbios63 said:

When does "NPD September" start ?

I believe tomorrow

NPD starts on a Sunday? Thought it would have been monday?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
zorg1000 said:

I believe tomorrow

NPD starts on a Sunday? Thought it would have been monday?

Why? Sunday is the first day of the week.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

NPD starts on a Sunday? Thought it would have been monday?

Why? Sunday is the first day of the week.

I will never understand that as a european ;P



Mbolibombo said:
zorg1000 said:

Why? Sunday is the first day of the week.

I will never understand that as a European ;P

Same, seems so weird



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mbolibombo said:

I will never understand that as a European ;P

Same, seems so weird

x3



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)