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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Did PS4 fall off a cliff or something?



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Wow, Xbox could actually win this one



jason1637 said:
Did PS4 fall off a cliff or something?

Nope. Someone requested an illogical change which Symbios for who knows why actually heeded. I would have thought the creator of this algorithmic pattern to be more informed on the factors and what each daily ranking represents (it's not on a single day but rather on a rolling period). Oh well, we'll see how it all shakes out.



Megiddo said:
jason1637 said:
Did PS4 fall off a cliff or something?

Nope. Someone requested an illogical change which Symbios for who knows why actually heeded. I would have thought the creator of this algorithmic pattern to be more informed on the factors and what each daily ranking represents (it's not on a single day but rather on a rolling period). Oh well, we'll see how it all shakes out.

Well, 5 days listing of sold out hardware really pushes it. Besides he's making several charts to see which one will be closest to the NPD results, not flat-out removing them.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Megiddo said:

Nope. Someone requested an illogical change which Symbios for who knows why actually heeded. I would have thought the creator of this algorithmic pattern to be more informed on the factors and what each daily ranking represents (it's not on a single day but rather on a rolling period). Oh well, we'll see how it all shakes out.

Well, 5 days listing of sold out hardware really pushes it. Besides he's making several charts to see which one will be closest to the NPD results, not flat-out removing them.

Exactly....even if the change request turns out to be illogical, I think Symbios deserves some credit for the work he is willing to put in to reflect the impact of those changes.

Strangely enough, none of the changes actually change the order of the final outcome in terms of placements (so far), it is the margins that have been impacted.



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That they rank so high is indicative of just how much more they sold overall in that short period.

Let's go with a hypothetical to illustrate the point. Let's say that Gamestop has 4,000 units of the PS4 special console for its online stores. Let's say that after one day's time Gamestop has completely sold out of these units and the PS4 is ranked #1. Let's say that during this one day, in 10th place is the Xbox One X which sold 800 units. The next day, the sold out special PS4 is now rank #2 and the X1X is still rank #10 and sold another 800 units. So in terms of points, since the PS4 is sold out it only has the maximum points for one day, let's say 200. Whereas in 2 days X1X has two times the 10th place point total, let's say 180 * 2 or 360 points. So despite the PS4 selling more than twice as many units in the 2 day period, it has only a little over half of the points the X1X was able to accrue in that time. This leads to great inaccuracies and is why the requested change was so illogical.

If it's ranking still 5 days afterwards that just goes to show how much it sold in a rolling period compared to the competition.



Megiddo said:

That they rank so high is indicative of just how much more they sold overall in that short period.

Let's go with a hypothetical to illustrate the point. Let's say that Gamestop has 4,000 units of the PS4 special console for its online stores. Let's say that after one day's time Gamestop has completely sold out of these units and the PS4 is ranked #1. Let's say that during this one day, in 10th place is the Xbox One X which sold 800 units. The next day, the sold out special PS4 is now rank #2 and the X1X is still rank #10 and sold another 800 units. So in terms of points, since the PS4 is sold out it only has the maximum points for one day, let's say 200. Whereas in 2 days X1X has two times the 10th place point total, let's say 180 * 2 or 360 points. So despite the PS4 selling more than twice as many units in the 2 day period, it has only a little over half of the points the X1X was able to accrue in that time. This leads to great inaccuracies and is why the requested change was so illogical.

If it's ranking still 5 days afterwards that just goes to show how much it sold in a rolling period compared to the competition.

I see where you're coming from. But these shops don't work that way, hence why points don't increase in a linear fashion and instead the closer you get to the top the more points a single spot difference is worth.

It's much more probably that masses of customers try to buy one by hoping to have someone choosing not to buy/card not being accepted, etc... and getting that console instead. These buying attempts keep them charting and nothing else.

Besides, from yesterday to today the consoles would have dropped a grand total of 3 spots on Gamestop. That just doesn't work with your theory and calculation as some items dropped more despite still selling.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Besides, from yesterday to today the consoles would have dropped a grand total of 3 spots on Gamestop. That just doesn't work with your theory and calculation as some items dropped more despite still selling.

It does when you understand that a rolling period doesn't just take into effect one day's sales. Some of those that fell more did so because they had sold a lot at the tail end of the rolling period so when that day's numbers were dropped from the rolling period in consideration it in turn dropped in the rankings.



In real world value, the 500 Million PS4 Pro is going to sell anywhere between 10K-15K (Leaning more towards 15K) since there are only 50K worldwide. It's shouldn't majorly swing the PS4 upwards like the first graph was showing.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
In real world value, the 500 Million PS4 Pro is going to sell anywhere between 10K-15K (Leaning more towards 15K) since there are only 50K worldwide. It's shouldn't majorly swing the PS4 upwards like the first graph was showing.

10-15k in a single day is massive though. If 200k is the average for the month, then that is 6k per day. So a 10-15k swing would be 16k-21k sold in one day, which is possibly what the graph would be showing. In point value it went from around 350pts to 1100. That is 3 times the sales much like from 6k to 16k-21k.

I guess it still shows that though.