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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

peachbuggy said:
Switch might actually have a shot of winning June. 0.91 is within the 10% +/- range. Just barely.

I think Sony has June, just because that spike at the start was pretty substantial.... but it was close on average, so it's going to be fascinating to see this tool evolve over the next few weeks.

July looks like Switch if Sony doesn't start getting some stock out there.



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Madword said:
peachbuggy said:
Switch might actually have a shot of winning June. 0.91 is within the 10% +/- range. Just barely.

I think Sony has June, just because that spike at the start was pretty substantial.... but it was close on average, so it's going to be fascinating to see this tool evolve over the next few weeks.

July looks like Switch if Sony doesn't start getting some stock out there.

Yeah Sony should get it but it looks like it might be close and actually pretty exciting!



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07/13/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-8) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 76 (-20) - 297.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 81 (+1) - 489.00$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-2) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 81 (-2) - 239.99$

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 25 + 20 = 45 points (-19) ; NS : 160 + 102 = 262 points (-48)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-3) - 399.00$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 25 (-7) - 499.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 26 (-3) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 47 (+14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 140 = 325 points (-25) ; XBO : 102 + 100 + 58 = 260 points (-11) ; NS : 190 + 170 = 360 points (-15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 40 (+5) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 99 (+8) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 145 (-14) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 115 points (-10) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :50 + 28 = 78 points (-4)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 359.6 points (-45.4) ; Month Average : 399.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 180.0 points (-15.0) ; Month Average : 190.0 points/day ; 0.48 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 88.0 points (-17.4) ; Month Average : 124.6 points/day ; 0.31 (-0.01)



Symbios63 said:
07/13/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 359.6 points (-45.4) ; Month Average : 399.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 180.0 points (-15.0) ; Month Average : 190.0 points/day ; 0.48 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 88.0 points (-17.4) ; Month Average : 124.6 points/day ; 0.31 (-0.01)

^ that is depressing....

I know I get called out, everytime I say "its time for sony to do something"..... but if not when sales suddenly drop to near half, when then?



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Number of days to reach 60M from 50M : 187 days
Number of days to reach 70M from 60M : 175 days
Number of days to reach 80M from 70M : 227 days

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JRPGfan said:

^ that is depressing....

I know I get called out, everytime I say "its time for sony to do something"..... but if not when sales suddenly drop to near half, when then?

I start to think this is out of Sony's hands now. If sales don't recover soon in expectation of Spiderman and RDR2, then a pricecut probably wouldn't cut it either.

That is, if there ain't shortages having a hand in this, of course. But I haven't heard anything about any shortages yet, so pretty doubtful



quickrick said: 

ps4 will beat switch by around 100k March npd or slightly less.

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Probably best to wait until actual NPD results to say anything. After all, PS4 has been the top selling console 4 months in a row now (and would be 5 if it's on top for June). Wouldn't be surprised if the Switch gets a month after that.

While this indicator is really helpful, when there is only one SKU on Gamestop and 2 on Bestbuy (as opposed to the 3-4 it had in months prior) we don't really know what means overall.



Megiddo said:

Probably best to wait until actual NPD results to say anything. After all, PS4 has been the top selling console 4 months in a row now (and would be 5 if it's on top for June). Wouldn't be surprised if the Switch gets a month after that.

While this indicator is really helpful, when there is only one SKU on Gamestop and 2 on Bestbuy (as opposed to the 3-4 it had in months prior) we don't really know what means overall.

I expect ps4 to win in june easily, day of play sales, plus the limited edition ps4, that sold out right away. if the NPD tool does get it right june then i will put more faith in it, but only 2 months, and people already acting like it got 9 months straight right.



quickrick said:
Megiddo said:

Probably best to wait until actual NPD results to say anything. After all, PS4 has been the top selling console 4 months in a row now (and would be 5 if it's on top for June). Wouldn't be surprised if the Switch gets a month after that.

While this indicator is really helpful, when there is only one SKU on Gamestop and 2 on Bestbuy (as opposed to the 3-4 it had in months prior) we don't really know what means overall.

I expect ps4 to win in june easily, day of play sales, plus the limited edition ps4, that sold out right away. if the NPD tool does get it right june then i will put more faith in it, but only 2 months, and people already acting like it got 9 months straight right.

You do realize that this NPD tool is predicting PS4 to win June, right?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
JRPGfan said:

^ that is depressing....

I know I get called out, everytime I say "its time for sony to do something"..... but if not when sales suddenly drop to near half, when then?

I start to think this is out of Sony's hands now. If sales don't recover soon in expectation of Spiderman and RDR2, then a pricecut probably wouldn't cut it either.

That is, if there ain't shortages having a hand in this, of course. But I haven't heard anything about any shortages yet, so pretty doubtful

I think a pricecut a week before Spiderman is the way to go.
Ride that spiderman hype, and sell a boatload of them to spiderman fans.



Number of days to reach 50M from 40M : 198 days
Number of days to reach 60M from 50M : 187 days
Number of days to reach 70M from 60M : 175 days
Number of days to reach 80M from 70M : 227 days

Necro-bump this 2020: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=229249

StarDoor said:
quickrick said:

I expect ps4 to win in june easily, day of play sales, plus the limited edition ps4, that sold out right away. if the NPD tool does get it right june then i will put more faith in it, but only 2 months, and people already acting like it got 9 months straight right.

You do realize that this NPD tool is predicting PS4 to win June, right?

I know it is, but its too close, and no way the tool is that accurate, so if they are that close then the tool gets the win.