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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Kind of crazy PS4 keeps it lead without any points from Amazon.

Did E3 delay NPD seems longer than normal for the wait.



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So far, by the average, June will look like May. Little difference for more or less on platforms.
It remains to know how it was May.



gemini_d@rk said:
So far, by the average, June will look like May. Little difference for more or less on platforms.
It remains to know how it was May.

It looks like they are moving closer together, though



06/19/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 55 (-7) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 60 (+1) - 199.00$ (-57.00)

Out of Top 100 :

4 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 68 (N) - 299.99$

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 46 + 40 = 86 points (-12) ; NS : 160 + 98 = 258 points (+9)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (+8) - 399.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 14 (+7) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 17 (+2) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 63 (+9) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 94 (-3) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 123 (+29) - 299.00$
7 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 137 (-24) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 179 (-22) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 180 + 11 = 401 points (+29) ; XBO : 170 + 58 + 32 = 260 points (-9) ; NS : 88 + 39 = 127 points (+22)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 501.2 points (+29.0) ; Month Average : 513.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 397.4 points (+29.2) ; Month Average : 357.2 points/day ; 0.70 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 407.4 points (-18.6) ; Month Average : 263.4 points/day ; 0.51 (+0.02)



May Summary :

Overall : 1) PS4 : 512.7 points/day (-28.5% ; 1.00) ; 2) NS : 388.1 points/day (+8.0% ; 0.76) ; 3) XBO : 217.0 points/day (-10.6% ; 0.42)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)

Leaked May NPD numbers : PS4 : 223k (1.0) ; NS : 167k (0.75) ; XBO : 145k (0.65)

Damn you XBO !! ;)



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Symbios63 said:
May Summary :

Overall : 1) PS4 : 512.7 points/day (-28.5% ; 1.00) ; 2) NS : 388.1 points/day (+8.0% ; 0.76) ; 3) XBO : 217.0 points/day (-10.6% ; 0.42)
Last month : 1) PS4 : 716.6 points/day (1.00) ; 2) NS : 359.3 points/day (0.50) ; 3) XBO : 242.8 points/day (0.34)
Last month NPD : 1) PS4 : 326k (1.00) ; 2) NS : 171k (0.52) ; 3) XBO : 134k (0.41)

Leaked May NPD numbers : PS4 : 223k (1.0) ; NS : 167k (0.75) ; XBO : 145k (0.65)

Damn you XBO !! ;)

 

Great Job matey, 100% record maintained and the accuracy still quite impressive. So, yeah the Switch closed the gap but hasn't caught up to or passed the PS4 yet. I await the day the Switch will win its next NPD and hope the weighting catches that momentum shift accurately. Great model and you deserve a VGChartz award for this.



06/20/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 49 (+6) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 79 (-19) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 54 + 22 = 76 points (-10) ; NS : 170 + 110 = 280 points (+22)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 4 (-2) - 399.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 17 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 20 (-3) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 64 (-1) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 103 (-9) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 117 (+6) - 299.00$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 172 (+7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 137 (-24) - 249.99$ (-50.00)

PS4 : 205 + 170 + 15 = 390 points (-11) ; XBO : 165 + 49 = 214 points (-46) ; NS : 88 + 43 = 131 points (+4)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 490.2 points (-11.0) ; Month Average : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 419.0 points (+21.6) ; Month Average : 360.8 points/day ; 0.70 (-)
3 - XBO : 353.4 points (-54.0) ; Month Average : 268.7 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.01)



Symbios63 said:
06/20/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 49 (+6) - 449.99$ (-35.00$)
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 79 (-19) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 54 + 22 = 76 points (-10) ; NS : 170 + 110 = 280 points (+22)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 2 (-) - 349.00$ (-50.00)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 5 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 21 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00)
9 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-) - 199.00$ (-80.00)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 + 106 = 501 points (-) ; XBO : 135 + 110 + 102 + 46 = 393 points (-) ; NS : 175 + 145 = 320 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 4 (-2) - 399.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 17 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 20 (-3) - 199.00$ (-80.00)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 64 (-1) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 103 (-9) - 449.99$ (-50.00)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 117 (+6) - 299.00$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 172 (+7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 137 (-24) - 249.99$ (-50.00)

PS4 : 205 + 170 + 15 = 390 points (-11) ; XBO : 165 + 49 = 214 points (-46) ; NS : 88 + 43 = 131 points (+4)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 490.2 points (-11.0) ; Month Average : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 419.0 points (+21.6) ; Month Average : 360.8 points/day ; 0.70 (-)
3 - XBO : 353.4 points (-54.0) ; Month Average : 268.7 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.01)

Are the Best Buy numbers correct? I have been checking for the past two days and rankings appear to be different compared to the ones here. Oddly enough, for the first time, there is also a difference in the hardware rankings in the Best Buy link on the OP and the Best Buy link that I use (https://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchpage.jsp?cp=1&searchType=search&st=console&_dyncharset=UTF-8&id=pcat17071&type=page&sc=Global&nrp=&sp=-bestsellingsort%20skuidsaas&qp=&list=n&af=true&iht=y&usc=All%20Categories&ks=960&keys=keys)

Here are the rankings I got from the OPs link:

1. PS4 Slim 1 TB (9)

2. PS4 Pro (15)

3. Switch Neon (19)

4. Xbox One S PUBG (25)

5. Xbox One S SoT (41)

6. Xbox One X (48)

7. Switch Grey (121)

8. Xbox One S Starter Kit (135)

9. PS4 Slim Days of Play (202)

10. Xbox One S 500 GB (218)

 

Here are the rankings from my link (I only provided the hardware ranking for this one):

1. PS4 Slim Days of Play

2. PS4 Pro

3. Switch Neon

4. PS4 Slim 1 TB

5. Xbox One X

6. Xbox One S Starter Kit

7. Xbox One S PUBG

8. Switch Grey

9. Xbox One S 500 GB

10. Xbox One S SoT

 

Notably, neither links (both the OP one and the one I use) correspond with the listings provided above, and this has been the case for the past two days. In addition, these past two days is the first time my link and the OPs link are no longer corresponding with each other with regards to hardware rankings.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
globalisateur said:
The fact that Amazon don't sell PS4 consoles anymore could be a problem in your prediction methodology.

That gets balanced out by the other shops. Gamestop in particular seems Playstation heavy, which partially might be because Amazon doesn't sell PS4 anymore

Gamestop has to be happy it turned out this way, and its giveing them more sales.



nemo37 said:

Are the Best Buy numbers correct? I have been checking for the past two days and rankings appear to be different compared to the ones here. Oddly enough, for the first time, there is also a difference in the hardware rankings in the Best Buy link on the OP and the Best Buy link that I use (https://www.bestbuy.com/site/searchpage.jsp?cp=1&searchType=search&st=console&_dyncharset=UTF-8&id=pcat17071&type=page&sc=Global&nrp=&sp=-bestsellingsort%20skuidsaas&qp=&list=n&af=true&iht=y&usc=All%20Categories&ks=960&keys=keys)

Here are the rankings I got from the OPs link:

1. PS4 Slim 1 TB (9)

2. PS4 Pro (15)

3. Switch Neon (19)

4. Xbox One S PUBG (25)

5. Xbox One S SoT (41)

6. Xbox One X (48)

7. Switch Grey (121)

8. Xbox One S Starter Kit (135)

9. PS4 Slim Days of Play (202)

10. Xbox One S 500 GB (218)

 

Here are the rankings from my link (I only provided the hardware ranking for this one):

1. PS4 Slim Days of Play

2. PS4 Pro

3. Switch Neon

4. PS4 Slim 1 TB

5. Xbox One X

6. Xbox One S Starter Kit

7. Xbox One S PUBG

8. Switch Grey

9. Xbox One S 500 GB

10. Xbox One S SoT

 

Notably, neither links (both the OP one and the one I use) correspond with the listings provided above, and this has been the case for the past two days. In addition, these past two days is the first time my link and the OPs link are no longer corresponding with each other with regards to hardware rankings.

The bestbuy ranking in my posts has been the same for several days. The reason is that my usual list (the one in the OP) gives me a ranking that is at least several weeks old (you can tell with the top sellers among games) and always the same. I am waiting for the list to properly update again but if nothing happens I will have to do something about it.