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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Oh man, that ps4 curve to sky....



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gemini_d@rk said:
Oh man, that ps4 curve to sky....

It mostly comes from the release of a new limited edition of the PS4, will probably go down again soon.

Now that Pokémon got a real announcement, it will be interesting to watch how the Switch sales will evolve. 



05/31/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 23 (+4) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 48 (+7) - 256.90$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 65 (-12) - 484.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 56 + 36 = 92 points (-2) ; NS : 180 + 106 = 286 points (+8)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 5 (-1) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (-2) - 499.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 20 (-) - 299.00$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-7) - 249.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 37 (+4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 190 = 400 points (-5) ; XBO : 135 + 102 +78 = 315 points (-25) ; NS : 205 + 115 = 320 points (+30)


- Gamestop :

1 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 11 (+18) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 16 (-4) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 26 (-4) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 50 (-9) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 92 (+10) - 299.00$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 138 (+15) - 299.00$
7 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 189 (R) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 175 + 150 + 102 + 6 = 618 points (+23) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 60 + 32 = 92 points (+18)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 698.0 points (+22.0) ; Month Average : 533.93 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 384.8 points (+30.4) ; Month Average : 387.61 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 136.6 (-6.6) points ; Month Average : 224.34 points/day ; 0.42 (-0.01)



06/01/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 51 (-3) - 256.90$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 65 (-) - 484.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 50 + 36 = 86 points (-6) ; NS : 175 + 110 = 285 points (-1)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 5 (-) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 15 (+1) - 499.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 20 (-) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 37 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 190 = 400 points (-) ; XBO : 140 + 102 +78 = 320 points (+5) ; NS : 205 + 115 = 320 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 9 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 17 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 39 (-13) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 48 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 89 (+3) - 299.00$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 140 (-2) - 299.00$
7 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 186 (+3) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 170 + 115 + 104 + 8 = 587 points (-31) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 62 + 31 = 93 points (+1)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 667.0 points (-31.0) ; Month Average : 538.68 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 385.0 points (+0.2) ; Month Average : 387.52 points/day ; 0.72 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 132.8 (-3.8) points ; Month Average : 221.07 points/day ; 0.41 (-0.01)



The days of play PS4 Pro has really pushed the sales a lot, but probably will go down fast again as it's selling out already.

Switch sales have recovered a bit with the Pokémon announcement, but nothing to write home about just yet.



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Great job @Symbios63, May NPD results should help show how much (if any) of an influence Gamestop's PS4 bias has on the data from the tool and if there is any need to further tweak your weightings. I really do think the 'scary' accuracy of last month's results would be tested by this month's NPD.



Days of play holding well pokemon Go effect in terms of hardware sales difference.

Last edited by gemini_d@rk - on 02 June 2018

Why is the Days of Play model being used for the May predictions? It doesn't launch until June 8th. May NPD ends tomorrow.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Welfare said:
Why is the Days of Play model being used for the May predictions? It doesn't launch until June 8th. May NPD ends tomorrow.

Because I have not paid attention to the release date untill now...lol. I will correct the data when I am back to my computer tomorrow... And thanks for the info about NPD...



06/02/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 51 (-) - 256.90$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 59 (+6) - 484.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 50 + 42 = 92 points (+6) ; NS : 170 + 110 = 280 points (-5)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 5 (-) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 12 (+3) - 499.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+6) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 17 (+8) - 249.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 31 (+6) - 299.99$
8 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 55 (N) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 190 = 400 points (-) ; XBO : 155 + 130 +90 = 375 points (+55) ; NS : 200 + 145 = 345 points (+25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 16 (+1) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 68 (-20) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 73 (-34) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 87 (+2) - 299.00$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 127 (+13) - 299.00$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 149 (R) - 499.99$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 193 (-7) - 399.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 84 + 78 + 4 = 341 points (-56) ; XBO : 26 points (+26) ; NS : 64 + 37 = 101 points (+8)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 421.0 points (-56.0) ; Month Average : 516.87 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 394.0 points (+9.0) ; Month Average : 387.02 points/day ; 0.75
3 - XBO : 174.6 (+41.8) points ; Month Average : 219.44 points/day ; 0.42