Quantcast
In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

05/22/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 51 (-) - 484.99$
4 (R) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 73 (R) - 251.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 91 (-9) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 10 points (-9) ; XBO : 50 + 28 = 78 points (+28) ; NS : 170 + 102 = 272 (-2) points


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 13 (-1) - 279.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 20 (-2) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 26 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 95 (+26) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 116 (+24) - 299.00$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 165 (-35) - 299.99$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 172 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 171 (+2) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 183 (-20) - 359.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 185 (R) - 359.99$

PS4 : 165 + 150 + 56 = 371 points (-4) ; XBO : 180 + 18 + 15 = 213 points (-8) ; NS : 43 points (-5)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 441.0 points (-11.2) ; Month Average : 561.24 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 284.6 points (-6.6) ; Month Average : 409.24 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 321.0 points (+14.4) ; Month Average : 234.66 points/day ; 0.42 (+0.01)

Best buy has been stuck for a while again...



Around the Network

05/23/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 46 (+5) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 62 (+11) - 251.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 87 (+4) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 14 points (+4) ; XBO : 60 + 39 = 99 points (+21) ; NS : 165 + 104 = 269 (-3) points


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 12 (+1) - 279.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 19 (+1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 25 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 96 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 115 (+1) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 165 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 168 (+4) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 171 (+2) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 183 (-20) - 359.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 185 (R) - 359.99$

PS4 : 165 + 150 + 56 = 371 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 18 + 17 = 220 points (+7) ; NS : 43 points (-)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 444.2 points (+3.2) ; Month Average : 556.14 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 282.2 points (-2.4) ; Month Average : 403.71 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 344.8 points (+23.8) ; Month Average : 239.45 points/day ; 0.43 (+0.01)

Best buy still not moving...



At this rate it will become Amazon and Gamestop only if Bestbuy refuses to update



Tag for future reference.



05/24/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 52 (-6) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 54 (+8) - 256.90$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 83 (+4) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 18 points (+4) ; XBO : 49 + 47 = 96 points (-3) ; NS : 175 + 104 = 279 (+10) points


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 11 (+8) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 12 (+13) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 39 (+57) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 41 (+74) - 299.00$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb PBG - 98 (R) - 314.99$
6 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 99 (R) - 299.00$
7 (-6) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 128 (-116) - 279.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 130 (+38) - 499.99$
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 136 (R) - 449.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 165 (-) - 299.99$

PS4 : 185 + 185 + 115 + 33 = 518 points (+147) ; XBO : 54 + 37 + 36 = 127 points (-93) ; NS : 110 + 52 = 162 points (+119)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 594.4 points (+150.2) ; Month Average : 557.74 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 409.2 points (+127.0) ; Month Average : 403.94 points/day ; 0.72 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 249.4 points (-95.4) ; Month Average : 239.87 points/day ; 0.43 (-)



Best buy still not moving...



Around the Network

05/25/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 54 (-2) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 58 (-4) - 256.90$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 91 (-8) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 10 points (-8) ; XBO : 47 + 43 = 90 points (-6) ; NS : 165 + 104 = 269 points (-10)


- Best Buy :

PS4 : 370 points (-) ; XBO : 270 points (-) ; NS : 283 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 13 (-2) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 15 (-3) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 35 (+6) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 39 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 87 (+43) - 499.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 92 (+7) - 299.00$
7 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 150 (-14) - 449.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb PBG - 98 (R) - 314.99$
7 (-6) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 128 (-116) - 279.99$

PS4 : 180 + 175 + 115 + 26 = 496 points (-22) ; XBO : 64 points (-63) ; NS : 125 + 60 = 185 points (+23)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 578.0 points ; Month Average : 561.91 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 456.8 points ; Month Average : 415.18 points/day ; 0.74
3 - XBO : 190.0 points ; Month Average : 240.22 points/day ; 0.43

As Best Buy has been stuck for a long time now, I will use best buy month average (up to the day it got stuck) as daily value untill it starts moving again. I applied this change to every day retroactively (starting the day after the day the list stopped getting updated).
I think this should be more accurate than keeping the last day as daily number.

Here is the graph reflecting the changes :



Also, I just thought about the fact that I didn't include March GOW PS4 pro preorders in the calculation of April PS4 score.

Well, that was a good idea as we were very close from actual NPD results but that may mean that we are overtracking PS4 a bit here (and it didn't show because those March preorders were not included...).

I guess we will have a better picture with next month NPD results.



Symbios63 said:
Also, I just thought about the fact that I didn't include March GOW PS4 pro preorders in the calculation of April PS4 score.

Well, that was a good idea as we were very close from actual NPD results but that may mean that we are overtracking PS4 a bit here (and it didn't show because those March preorders were not included...).

I guess we will have a better picture with next month NPD results.

How many of these bundles got sold? If it was very limited, then I'd say it's fine. However if there were many of these bundles then yeah, PS4 probably overtracked. Funny how it worked out in the end.



05/26/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 29 (-5) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 61 (-7) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 74 (-16) - 256.90$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 99 (-8) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 2 points (-8) ; XBO : 40 + 27 = 67 points (-23) ; NS : 160 + 94 = 254 points (-15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+9) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 11 (+4) - 399.00$
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 16 (+32) - 499.99$
5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 22 (R) - 299.00$
6 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 24 (+1) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$

PS4 : 180 + 160 = 340 points (+30) ; XBO : 135 + 104 = 239 points (+9) ; NS : 165 + 108 = 273 points (+153)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 16 (-3) - 399.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 21 (-6) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 73 (-34) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 92 (-57) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 158 (-71) - 499.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 193 (-101) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 150 (-14) - 449.99$

PS4 : 175 + 160 + 78 = 413 points (-83) ; XBO : 22 points (-42) ; NS : 60 + 4 = 64 points (-121)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 482.6 points (-95.4) ; Month Average : 558.87 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 321.8 points (-135.0) ; Month Average : 411.55 points/day ; 0.74 (-)
3 - XBO : 123.4 (-66.6) points ; Month Average : 235.70 points/day ; 0.42 (-0.01)



Best Buy is moving again.



These fluctuations are a bit weird.

Also, is it just me, or do One X and Pro both outsell their base consoles for a while now?