In progress NPD predicting tool

chakkra

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chakkra on 20 May 2018

Symbios63 said:

05/18/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 22 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 51 (-1) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 85 (-12) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 64 (R) - 249.00$
7 (-2) - Xbox One S 500Gb White - 94 (-30) - TP

PS4 : 16 points (-12) ; XBO : 50 + 43 = 93 points (-5) ; NS : 160 + 108 = 268 (-3) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 19 (-5) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 22 (+10) - 399.99$
3 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 54 (R) - 199.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 63 (+3) - 249.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 65 (-12) - 299.00$
6 (-3) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 68 (-25) - 229.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 69 (+22) - 359.99$
8 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 73 (+7) - 299.99$
9 (R) - XBox One S 1 Tb Playerunknown's Battleground - 124 (+R) - 249.99$
10 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 133 (R) - 499.99$
11 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 150 (-34) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Forza Horizon 3 - 148 (R) - 229.99$
10 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 172 (-11) - 359.99$

PS4 : 165 + 160 + 78 + 26 = 429 points (-1) ; XBO : 98 + 88 + 84 + 39 + 34 = 343 points (+122) ; NS : 86 + 82 = 168 points (-5)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 503.8 points (-10.6) ; Month Average : 581.67 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 406.4 points (-7.4) ; Month Average : 430.29 points/day ; 0.74
3 - XBO : 463.0 points (+118.0) ; Month Average : 211.83 points/day ; 0.36

It is good to see that the good old price cuts and deals still help.

I was wondering why MS didnt just make those price cuts permanent but I think that they are afraid that Sony might just counter attack with price cuts of their own. So I think they're just sneaking those price cuts as "temporary deals".

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Bofferbrauer2 on 20 May 2018

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Wow Switch dropped below XBO in the dailies and everything nosediving hard! What happened to cause all this ruckus?

We're at the slowest part of the year ...

Spring/Summer has always had the lowest hardware sales during any period ...

OP, did you make sure to adjust your model to be consistent with previous data ?

Doesn't explain why it went south so sharply only that day and not the other days

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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fatslob-:O on 21 May 2018

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Doesn't explain why it went south so sharply only that day and not the other days

Well that's the market for ya, sales patterns just aren't very deterministic ...

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Bofferbrauer2 on 21 May 2018

fatslob-:O said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Doesn't explain why it went south so sharply only that day and not the other days

Well that's the market for ya, sales patterns just aren't very deterministic ...

Nah, there has to be more to it. The curb was pretty stable for over a month, with predictable spikes on new releases and the curb then going down again until it reached it's baseline. sales did deviate a bit, but never nearly as much or as fast as it did yesterday - and it also never affected all at once like that.

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Symbios63 on 21 May 2018

05/20/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 51 (+6) - 484.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 82 (-1) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 19 points (-1) ; XBO : 50 points (+6) ; NS : 170 + 104 = 274 (+10) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 12 (-1) - 279.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 18 (+7) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 25 (+7) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 121 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 130 (-20) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 140 (+15) - 299.00$
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 171 (+2) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 183 (-20) - 359.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 185 (R) - 359.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 150 + 40 + 15 = 375 points (+38) ; XBO : 185 + 36 = 221 points (-10) ; NS : 31 + 9 + 8 = 48 points (+6)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 452.2 points (+37.2) ; Month Average : 566.97 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 291.2 points (+14.0) ; Month Average : 415.12 points/day ; 0.73 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 306.6 points (-5.2) ; Month Average : 230.51 points/day ; 0.41 (+0.01)

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SWORDF1SH on 21 May 2018

Things look to be going back to normal and starting to follow the overal trend down. We are going to get extremes but the average is what we should be more interested in.

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Madword on 21 May 2018

SWORDF1SH said:
Things look to be going back to normal and starting to follow the overal trend down. We are going to get extremes but the average is what we should be more interested in.

I think the average is whats really useful on this. Normally people will pop in and go, OMG look how well ABC is doing at that particular moment and make a estimation at that point. A is winning, B is doing terrible.... just on 1 or 2 days data. This changes everything.

Averages are where its at.

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jason1637 on 21 May 2018

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Wow Switch dropped below XBO in the dailies and everything nosediving hard! What happened to cause all this ruckus?

Xbox has got a deals until the end of next week.

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Symbios63 on 22 May 2018

05/22/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 51 (-) - 484.99$
4 (R) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 73 (R) - 251.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 91 (-9) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 10 points (-9) ; XBO : 50 + 28 = 78 points (+28) ; NS : 170 + 102 = 272 (-2) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 13 (-1) - 279.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 20 (-2) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 26 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 95 (+26) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 116 (+24) - 299.00$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 165 (-35) - 299.99$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 172 (R) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 171 (+2) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 183 (-20) - 359.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 185 (R) - 359.99$

PS4 : 165 + 150 + 56 = 371 points (-4) ; XBO : 180 + 18 + 15 = 213 points (-8) ; NS : 43 points (-5)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 441.0 points (-11.2) ; Month Average : 561.24 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 284.6 points (-6.6) ; Month Average : 409.24 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 321.0 points (+14.4) ; Month Average : 234.66 points/day ; 0.42 (+0.01)

Best buy has been stuck for a while again...

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Symbios63 on 23 May 2018

05/23/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 24 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 46 (+5) - 484.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 62 (+11) - 251.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 87 (+4) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 58 (-3) - 249.00$

PS4 : 14 points (+4) ; XBO : 60 + 39 = 99 points (+21) ; NS : 165 + 104 = 269 (-3) points

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 15 (-) - 399.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 25 (-) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 48 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-4) - 299.00$

PS4 : 170 + 140 = 310 points (-) ; XBO : 102 + 70 + 56 = 228 points (-) ; NS : 120 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One S 500Gb White - 12 (+1) - 279.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 19 (+1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 25 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 96 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 115 (+1) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Shadow of War - 165 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 168 (+4) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Monster Hunter World - 171 (+2) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Odyssey Bundle - 183 (-20) - 359.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 185 (R) - 359.99$

PS4 : 165 + 150 + 56 = 371 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 18 + 17 = 220 points (+7) ; NS : 43 points (-)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 444.2 points (+3.2) ; Month Average : 556.14 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 282.2 points (-2.4) ; Month Average : 403.71 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 344.8 points (+23.8) ; Month Average : 239.45 points/day ; 0.43 (+0.01)

Best buy still not moving...

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