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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

Conquered the US? Quite an odd choice of words when comparing monthly sales of a 2 year old console to a 5 year console that is still $299. Let me know when the Switch has passed the PS4's LTD, then we can talk about conquered.

Good, see you in about 3-4 years then.

Switch sold over 1.4M in the US YTD but the PS4 less than 1M. While the PS4 sales have dropped, even in it's best year it couldn't have kept up with the Switch sales from this year. And the Switch is still at full price, so there's still much space for pricecuts to boost sales later on, ensuring that the Switch will have a long shelf life, or at least longer than many believe.

In other words, I'm pretty sure that the Switch will outsell the PS4's best years in the US during the next years, making the advantage melt down fast. How long exactly it will take depends on how well and long the PS4 will sell from here on out, but if the PS5 really has backwards compatibilty out of the box, there's not much reason anymore to buy the console (at least not a new one) after the PS5 is out. So I expect the PS4 sales will drop fast after the PS5 is out, much faster than the PS2 and PS3 did.

This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon.  That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired.  Maybe one more price cut.  PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well.  It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years.  And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games.  Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.

Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead.  It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up. 



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thismeintiel said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Good, see you in about 3-4 years then.

Switch sold over 1.4M in the US YTD but the PS4 less than 1M. While the PS4 sales have dropped, even in it's best year it couldn't have kept up with the Switch sales from this year. And the Switch is still at full price, so there's still much space for pricecuts to boost sales later on, ensuring that the Switch will have a long shelf life, or at least longer than many believe.

In other words, I'm pretty sure that the Switch will outsell the PS4's best years in the US during the next years, making the advantage melt down fast. How long exactly it will take depends on how well and long the PS4 will sell from here on out, but if the PS5 really has backwards compatibilty out of the box, there's not much reason anymore to buy the console (at least not a new one) after the PS5 is out. So I expect the PS4 sales will drop fast after the PS5 is out, much faster than the PS2 and PS3 did.

This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon.  That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired.  Maybe one more price cut.  PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well.  It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years.  And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games.  Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.

Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead.  It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up. 

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).



Sorry, doublepost.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 28 May 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon.  That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired.  Maybe one more price cut.  PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well.  It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years.  And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games.  Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.

Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead.  It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up. 

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

So, wait, which is it? Is the PS5 going to be so expensive that there will be a $300+ (which won't be closed much if the used market becomes as saturated as you say it will) between it and the PS4, or is it going to be cheap enough that no PS4's will be sold after it's launch because everyone, even budget gamers, have jumped ship? Can't have it both ways.

Also, launch PS3s played PS2 games, and while there were tons of used ones out there, the PS2 still sold. Same goes for the PS1. The PS4 isn't going to just stop selling. At $149, it would be closer to an impulse buy for budget gamers and parents wanting a cheap system for the kids. Those types of people will wait for the PS5 to hit that price, as well.

And it will have been 3 years since the X launched and you think Sony could only slightly outdo it with a $50 savings? That's not how tech works. Sony also always takes a loss on HW. So, while it may be priced at $449, it'll cost them $549 to build.



thismeintiel said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

So, wait, which is it? Is the PS5 going to be so expensive that there will be a $300+ (which won't be closed much if the used market becomes as saturated as you say it will) between it and the PS4, or is it going to be cheap enough that no PS4's will be sold after it's launch because everyone, even budget gamers, have jumped ship? Can't have it both ways.

Also, launch PS3s played PS2 games, and while there were tons of used ones out there, the PS2 still sold. Same goes for the PS1. The PS4 isn't going to just stop selling. At $149, it would be closer to an impulse buy for budget gamers and parents wanting a cheap system for the kids. Those types of people will wait for the PS5 to hit that price, as well.

And it will have been 3 years since the X launched and you think Sony could only slightly outdo it with a $50 savings? That's not how tech works. Sony also always takes a loss on HW. So, while it may be priced at $449, it'll cost them $549 to build.

I'm saying that only one of the two will sell anything. If the PS5 is priced right, then the PS4 will stop selling. If it's too expensive, the PS4 will continue selling until the PS5 drops enough in price.

The PS2 still sold because the PS3 didn't. It continued to sell as Sony ditched the backwards compatibility as one of it's first cost-saving measures, so to be sure to be able to play PS1-PS2 games, you had to buy a PS2.

PS1 is part of another era, where the console manufacturers kept the old console on the market and supplied them with games as the budget option until their successor's successor came out. But that's not really done anymore these days. Sony made 1st party games for the PS1 until 2004. That's akin to make first party PS4 titles until 2025. PS2 was also kept alive from Wii ports, as their hardware was similar, otherwise it would have died much earlier.

@bolded: Tech these days works slowly, as shrinks get more and more apart. At the same time, prices have shot up over the last years.

AMD got applauded for it's $499 pricetag of their top model, but in 2012, Lisa Su would have been booed of the stage for moneygrabbing. A Core i7 3770K had a release price of $278 back then, and quickly went further down. But nowadays, you'll have to cash double that amount for the best Mainstream desktop chips.

Same deal on the GPU side: A GeForce 680 hat a $499 pricetag. A 980Ti sit at $649, a 1080Ti $699, and a 2080Ti at a staggering $1199 - even the 2080's $799 pricetag is $100 more than than the 1080Ti at release. Even AMD went up in prices depite being outmatched: a 7970 and a 290X each cost $549 at launch, but Vega 64 liquid and Vega VII had a $699 pricetag

All that results in hardware in general getting more expensive, and Semi-custom chips are certainly no exception to the rule. And since AMD can now sustain without the semi-custom console deal, they don't need to accept Sony's and Microsoft conditions, but can set the terms - and that means they will get more expensive for the same amount of chip size.

Btw, I'm also pretty sure that that's part of the reason, why we didn't get any real pricecuts for years now, only short term promotions, both on Playstation and Xbox side



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon.  That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired.  Maybe one more price cut.  PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well.  It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years.  And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games.  Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.

Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead.  It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up. 

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

Ok, honest question here:
I'm a total analphabet when it comes to Pokemon, but isn't Pokemon Go supposed to be a remake of Pokemon Yellow? So why is this not considered a mainline Pokemon? Or wasn't Pokemon Yellow a mainline game to begin with?

Or is it not considered a mainline title precisely because is a remake?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

This is most likely going to be the Switch's best year, with the launch of new HW, possibly with a price cut, and Pokemon.  That will be pretty much all of Nintendo's big guns fired.  Maybe one more price cut.  PS4 may not have too many big games launching this year, but it does have room for price cuts and may have another HW revision, as well.  It will also see many cross-gen releases that will be on the PS5, as well, in the coming years.  And considering the PS5 will most likely be $449-$499, budget gamers will be more inclined to buy a PS4 at $199, maybe eventually $149, to play those games.  Nothing that will bring it back to its former glory years, but it will add to its legs.

Right now, the PS4 has a ~17.5M lead.  It's going to take much more than a 2M-3M lead in its best year to make that kind of gap up. 

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

And sorry to barge in in your discussion but I had to address this:

Errr.. Nintendo did only ONE price cut for the Wii U in its lifetime. And before you tell me that was because of costs, in the last 2.5 years they have refused to do even heavy promotions for the Switch. I mean, besides the $30 gift card, what other promotions have they done?

So I think you are being waaay too optimistic about those price cuts. BUT, on the other hand, I think they will follow the 3DS route and launch a cheaper version. So that should help a lot anyways.



chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

And sorry to barge in in your discussion but I had to address this:

Errr.. Nintendo did only ONE price cut for the Wii U in its lifetime. And before you tell me that was because of costs, in the last 2.5 years they have refused to do even heavy promotions for the Switch. I mean, besides the $30 gift card, what other promotions have they done?

So I think you are being waaay too optimistic about those price cuts. BUT, on the other hand, I think they will follow the 3DS route and launch a cheaper version. So that should help a lot anyways.

You may barge in, no problem

Nintendo only did one because they knew a second one wouldn't have changed anything, and because Nintendo got pretty bad deals from suppliers due to the the low sales numbers. Having cut the price then would maybe have resulted in 1M more sales a year, but would also have resulted in bleeding money. Unless they would have had a serious chance in reversing the bad sales, cutting the price wasn't an option for Nintendo on the Wii U.

Besides, the first pricecut did practically nothing to the Wii U, what do you think that tells you if you're in the position of an executive? That another one would just be a waste of money, for the most part.

chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

All guns fired?

  1. This will be the first mainline Pokemon title on the Switch, but certainly not the only one
  2. Nintendo still has tons of IP where they can make great games, not mentioning any potential new IP
  3. Why do you think there will be only 1-2 pricecuts? I'm positive that there can and will be more than that.

Also, PS5 at $449? Only if it matches or slighly outdoes One X performance. $499 is the minimum, not the ceiling.

As for the budget gamers: If the PS5 is backwards compatible, there's little reason to keep your PS4. So many will trade them in for a PS5, meaning that the used market will flow over with PS4 consoles and ruining the value of new PS4 consoles. Even at $149, they won't sell many of them anymore after PS5 launch - except if the PS5 is too expensive for everybody (Hello, PS3 launch!).

Ok, honest question here:
I'm a total analphabet when it comes to Pokemon, but isn't Pokemon Go supposed to be a remake of Pokemon Yellow? So why is this not considered a mainline Pokemon? Or wasn't Pokemon Yellow a mainline game to begin with?

Or is it not considered a mainline title precisely because is a remake?

Pokemon Let's go is both a remake of 1st Gen and, more importantly, a spinoff of the mobile Pokemon Go - and thus doesn't qualify as a mainline title.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
thismeintiel said:

So, wait, which is it? Is the PS5 going to be so expensive that there will be a $300+ (which won't be closed much if the used market becomes as saturated as you say it will) between it and the PS4, or is it going to be cheap enough that no PS4's will be sold after it's launch because everyone, even budget gamers, have jumped ship? Can't have it both ways.

Also, launch PS3s played PS2 games, and while there were tons of used ones out there, the PS2 still sold. Same goes for the PS1. The PS4 isn't going to just stop selling. At $149, it would be closer to an impulse buy for budget gamers and parents wanting a cheap system for the kids. Those types of people will wait for the PS5 to hit that price, as well.

And it will have been 3 years since the X launched and you think Sony could only slightly outdo it with a $50 savings? That's not how tech works. Sony also always takes a loss on HW. So, while it may be priced at $449, it'll cost them $549 to build.

I'm saying that only one of the two will sell anything. If the PS5 is priced right, then the PS4 will stop selling. If it's too expensive, the PS4 will continue selling until the PS5 drops enough in price.

The PS2 still sold because the PS3 didn't. It continued to sell as Sony ditched the backwards compatibility as one of it's first cost-saving measures, so to be sure to be able to play PS1-PS2 games, you had to buy a PS2.

PS1 is part of another era, where the console manufacturers kept the old console on the market and supplied them with games as the budget option until their successor's successor came out. But that's not really done anymore these days. Sony made 1st party games for the PS1 until 2004. That's akin to make first party PS4 titles until 2025. PS2 was also kept alive from Wii ports, as their hardware was similar, otherwise it would have died much earlier.

@bolded: Tech these days works slowly, as shrinks get more and more apart. At the same time, prices have shot up over the last years.

AMD got applauded for it's $499 pricetag of their top model, but in 2012, Lisa Su would have been booed of the stage for moneygrabbing. A Core i7 3770K had a release price of $278 back then, and quickly went further down. But nowadays, you'll have to cash double that amount for the best Mainstream desktop chips.

Same deal on the GPU side: A GeForce 680 hat a $499 pricetag. A 980Ti sit at $649, a 1080Ti $699, and a 2080Ti at a staggering $1199 - even the 2080's $799 pricetag is $100 more than than the 1080Ti at release. Even AMD went up in prices depite being outmatched: a 7970 and a 290X each cost $549 at launch, but Vega 64 liquid and Vega VII had a $699 pricetag

All that results in hardware in general getting more expensive, and Semi-custom chips are certainly no exception to the rule. And since AMD can now sustain without the semi-custom console deal, they don't need to accept Sony's and Microsoft conditions, but can set the terms - and that means they will get more expensive for the same amount of chip size.

Btw, I'm also pretty sure that that's part of the reason, why we didn't get any real pricecuts for years now, only short term promotions, both on Playstation and Xbox side

The truth is, it will be somewhere in between.  Even at $449-$499, it will be cheaper than the PS3 when considering inflation.  Early adopters will still purchase it in the millions.  However, there are always gamers who are going to wait until it hits $299 or so and still others who will wait for it to hit $199, or cheaper. Those people will stick with PS4, especially the latter group, with the former group possibly upgrading to a Pro when it drops in price.

No, the PS2 kept selling because it still saw support from 1st and 3rd parties, like the PS4 will see, and because it was $129 (~$165 with inflation) when the PS3 launched.  And it eventually dropped to $99 (~$127 with inflation.)  Even with the popular PS2, the PS1 still managed to sell ~20M units after it launched.  The vast majority of which came in the 2-3 years after the PS2 launched, which means it wasn't because it stayed on shelves in a couple of countries (definitely not in the US) until late 2004/early 2005.

Your comparison is flawed with tech, though.  First of all, this is a new GPU the PS5 is using, with an updated architecture and smaller die size compared to the X's GPU.  Even just putting in a cheaper 6 Tflops version would see it outperform the X, and probably save them a huge amount compared to the X's GPU's cost in 2017.  We really have no idea what the price on the thing is going to be.  Supposedly it will be giving really good performance for a good price, which is most likely why Sony is going with it in the first place.  Also, those are retail prices you are looking at.  Those have included in it: the profit AMD wishes to see plus the profit the 3rd party GPU maker wants to see plus the profit that the retailer wishes to see.  Who knows which increased to get the higher prices that we have, now, and we also have to take into account inflation.  Either way, Sony is buying directly from AMD, which means they only pay for whatever profit AMD wants, and in bulk, which means savings per chip.  They will be paying much less for the parts than we would.

As for price, I highly doubt that has anything to do with it.  Besides, the XBO has effectively been $199 for months, now, with its $229 bundles.  Sony hasn't cut price because they haven't needed to.  The PS4 is going to hit 100M while still being $299.  They also obviously make a profit, or at least break even, on the $199 SKUs they put out for BF.  Which means we will be seeing a $249 price point some time this year, as sales have started to slow.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
chakkra said:

And sorry to barge in in your discussion but I had to address this:

Errr.. Nintendo did only ONE price cut for the Wii U in its lifetime. And before you tell me that was because of costs, in the last 2.5 years they have refused to do even heavy promotions for the Switch. I mean, besides the $30 gift card, what other promotions have they done?

So I think you are being waaay too optimistic about those price cuts. BUT, on the other hand, I think they will follow the 3DS route and launch a cheaper version. So that should help a lot anyways.

You may barge in, no problem

Nintendo only did one because they knew a second one wouldn't have changed anything, and because Nintendo got pretty bad deals from suppliers due to the the low sales numbers. Having cut the price then would maybe have resulted in 1M more sales a year, but would also have resulted in bleeding money. Unless they would have had a serious chance in reversing the bad sales, cutting the price wasn't an option for Nintendo on the Wii U.

Besides, the first pricecut did practically nothing to the Wii U, what do you think that tells you if you're in the position of an executive? That another one would just be a waste of money, for the most part.

chakkra said:

Ok, honest question here:
I'm a total analphabet when it comes to Pokemon, but isn't Pokemon Go supposed to be a remake of Pokemon Yellow? So why is this not considered a mainline Pokemon? Or wasn't Pokemon Yellow a mainline game to begin with?

Or is it not considered a mainline title precisely because is a remake?

Pokemon Let's go is both a remake of 1st Gen and, more importantly, a spinoff of the mobile Pokemon Go - and thus doesn't qualify as a mainline title.

Cool.  Thanks for the reply