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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Symbios63 said:
So, about April 2019 :


Great job Symbios!!

I actually follow your post and actualizations since a good amount of months. Today, observing the effect of the calibration in the formula has pumped me so much, that I have registered myself just to comment on it xD

Is there any place or link where all the numbers are collected (since March 2018)?



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Urko said:
Symbios63 said:
So, about April 2019 :


Great job Symbios!!

I actually follow your post and actualizations since a good amount of months. Today, observing the effect of the calibration in the formula has pumped me so much, that I have registered myself just to comment on it xD

Is there any place or link where all the numbers are collected (since March 2018)?

I would have said the OP, but that one only goes until September 2018. Still, might be interesting: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8756071



Symbios63 said:
So, about April 2019 :

Final tool results :

1 - XBO : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 0.83
3 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.51

NPD results (thanks Slarvax) :

1 - NS : 227k ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 148k ; 0.65
3 - XBO : 106k ; 0.47

As expected, XBO was wrong while NS/PS4 ratio was accurate.

I used those data to try something with the formula. I reduced the amount of point a console got based on the amount of Promotional SKUs in the list. To match the NPD data we got, I had to divide gamestop XBO total points during the first 8 days by : 1+(0.3xnumber of promo SKUs). In this case, it was 1+(0.3*6)=2.8.

Doing this, this is what we get :

1 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.61
3 - XBO : 231.7 points/day ; 0.54


Interestingly, if we apply this to October 2018 (another dude for the tool), this is what we get :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 1.0
XBO : 324.4 points/day ; 0.57

Before the change :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 0.89
XBO : 637.0 points/day ; 1.0

NPD :

PS4 : 340k ; 1.0
XBO : 215k ; 0.62

This looks pretty good, I have to try and see if I should include new bundles in this calculation as well (to see if it has an impact on NS numbers). I will have to look into November and December 2018 as well...

I admire your hard work man. Keep it up.



05/24/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 34 (+7) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 92 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb - 99 (R) - 207.79$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 9 = 83 points (-1) ; XBO : 2 points (+2) ; NS : 170 + 84 = 254 points (+24)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 41 (+10) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 68 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 72 (+14) - 249.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 83 (+6) - 399.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 95 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 145 = 335 points (-20) ; XBO : 70 + 33 + 29 + 6 = 138 points (+34) ; NS : 200 + 150 + 18 = 368 points (+1)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (+12)
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 39 (+3)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 124 (+20)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 125 (-14)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 165 (-8)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 198 (R) - 399.99$

PS4 : 135 + 38 = 173 points (+20) ; XBO : 0 points (-2) ; NS : 115 + 39 + 18 = 172 points (+11)

Overall :

1 - NS : 448.8 points (+30.4) ; Month Average : 437.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 306.4 points (+15.2) ; Month Average : 276.2 points/day ; 0.63 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 37.9 points (+8.3) ; Month Average : 53.2 points/day ; 0.12 (-0.01)


Thanks everyone. As soon as I find some times I will double check changes in the formula over several past month to validate them. Current month NS spike (50$ GC at gamestop) will have to be adjusted accordingly (not a huge change as only two SKUs for few days but still...).

Next idea is to consider new bundles (preorder and first week/month of release) as promotional SKUs as well. We will see.



Symbios63 said:
05/24/19 :




Thanks everyone. As soon as I find some times I will double check changes in the formula over several past month to validate them. Current month NS spike (50$ GC at gamestop) will have to be adjusted accordingly (not a huge change as only two SKUs for few days but still...).

Next idea is to consider new bundles (preorder and first week/month of release) as promotional SKUs as well. We will see.

Switch is on a rollercoaster right now. But like you said, that will get flattened a bit. Can't wait to see what the final will look like and how well it will match NPD.

About the new bundles: if they are special SKU, I would support it, especially when it's known from the get-go that the numbers will be limited.



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Way to adapt the tools ! You're making yourself a strong case of "best predicting tools" for the video game industry as of now :O



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

05/26/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (-4) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb - 79 (+20) - 207.79$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 96 (-4) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 5 = 79 points (-4) ; XBO : 22 points (+20) ; NS : 160 + 76 = 236 points (-18)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (+5) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (+3) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 48 (-7) - 399.99$
6 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 73 (+22) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 79 (-11) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 95 (-23) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 83 (+6) - 399.99$

PS4 : 185 + 170 = 355 points (+20) ; XBO : 56 + 28 + 22 + 6 = 112 points (-26) ; NS : 210 + 165 = 375 points (+7)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 31 (+8)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 37 (-5)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 100 (+24)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 122 (+3)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 186 (-21)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 120 + 40 = 160 points (-13) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 135 + 52 + 8 = 195 points (+23)

Overall :

1 - NS : 458.8 points (+10.0) ; Month Average : 415.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 294.2 points (-12.2) ; Month Average : 278.3 points/day ; 0.67 (+0.04)
3 - XBO : 52.0 points (+14.1) ; Month Average : 52.7 points/day ; 0.13 (+0.01)


Ok NS point reduction linked to gamestop promotional SKUs was done. As expected the change was not huge but still significant.
XBO will be undertracked this month most likely as usual when it is too low on the charts.
The new formula works well to put PS4 and XBO neck to neck last November as well (though the order would have been wrong nonetheless).



It is pretty clear that Switch conquered the US by now. PS4 doesn't even get close anymore. Though that could still change with a pricecut from Sony - although Nintendo can do the exact same, and probably will sometime this year. I mean, a console without a pricecut during it's first 3 years would be something radically new.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
It is pretty clear that Switch conquered the US by now. PS4 doesn't even get close anymore. Though that could still change with a pricecut from Sony - although Nintendo can do the exact same, and probably will sometime this year. I mean, a console without a pricecut during it's first 3 years would be something radically new.

But it's Nintendo, so tight your seatbelt until we get to that point ;)



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Bofferbrauer2 said:
It is pretty clear that Switch conquered the US by now. PS4 doesn't even get close anymore. Though that could still change with a pricecut from Sony - although Nintendo can do the exact same, and probably will sometime this year. I mean, a console without a pricecut during it's first 3 years would be something radically new.

I don't think either of them is gonna make a price cut this year. They both have shown that they are in for maximum profits this time around.