May looks like it will be a pretty slow month.

05/22/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 42 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 85 (+1) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 99 (-11)

PS4 : 68 + 16 = 84 points (+7) ; XBO : 0 points (-2) ; NS : 160 + 70 = 230 points (+9)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-5) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-7) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 51 (-18) - 399.99$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 69 (R) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 86 (+2) - 249.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 89 (R) - 399.99$
9 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 94 (-20) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 160 = 355 points (-25) ; XBO : 50 + 32 + 15 + 7 = 104 points (-22) ; NS : 200 + 155 + 12 = 367 points (-33)


- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 42 (R)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 44 (+84)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 111 (+59)
4 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 144 (R)
5 (-3) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 157 (-3)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 198 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 108 + 45 = 153 points (+100) ; XBO : 2 points (+2) ; NS : 110 + 29 + 22 = 161 points (+137)

Overall :

1 - NS : 418.4 points (+137.6) ; Month Average : 437.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 291.2 points (+100.6) ; Month Average : 272.9 points/day ; 0.62 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 29.6 points (-5.2) ; Month Average : 54.9 points/day ; 0.13 (-)

So, about April 2019 :

Final tool results :

1 - XBO : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 0.83
3 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.51

NPD results (thanks Slarvax) :

1 - NS : 227k ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 148k ; 0.65
3 - XBO : 106k ; 0.47

As expected, XBO was wrong while NS/PS4 ratio was accurate.

I used those data to try something with the formula. I reduced the amount of point a console got based on the amount of Promotional SKUs in the list. To match the NPD data we got, I had to divide gamestop XBO total points during the first 8 days by : 1+(0.3xnumber of promo SKUs). In this case, it was 1+(0.3*6)=2.8.

Doing this, this is what we get :

1 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.61
3 - XBO : 231.7 points/day ; 0.54


Interestingly, if we apply this to October 2018 (another dude for the tool), this is what we get :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 1.0
XBO : 324.4 points/day ; 0.57

Before the change :

PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 0.89
XBO : 637.0 points/day ; 1.0

NPD :

PS4 : 340k ; 1.0
XBO : 215k ; 0.62

This looks pretty good, I have to try and see if I should include new bundles in this calculation as well (to see if it has an impact on NS numbers). I will have to look into November and December 2018 as well...

Great work Symbios, looks like these changes are very good for the tool.

Definately, always the slowest month of the year. 

Last years numbers:

[PS4]  221k
[NSW]166k
[XB1] 144k

Great job Symbios!!

I actually follow your post and actualizations since a good amount of months. Today, observing the effect of the calibration in the formula has pumped me so much, that I have registered myself just to comment on it xD

Is there any place or link where all the numbers are collected (since March 2018)?

I would have said the OP, but that one only goes until September 2018. Still, might be interesting: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8756071

Symbios63 said: So, about April 2019 : Final tool results : 1 - XBO : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0 2 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 0.83 3 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.51 NPD results (thanks Slarvax) : 1 - NS : 227k ; 1.0 2 - PS4 : 148k ; 0.65 3 - XBO : 106k ; 0.47 As expected, XBO was wrong while NS/PS4 ratio was accurate. I used those data to try something with the formula. I reduced the amount of point a console got based on the amount of Promotional SKUs in the list. To match the NPD data we got, I had to divide gamestop XBO total points during the first 8 days by : 1+(0.3xnumber of promo SKUs). In this case, it was 1+(0.3*6)=2.8. Doing this, this is what we get : 1 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 1.0 2 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.61 3 - XBO : 231.7 points/day ; 0.54 Interestingly, if we apply this to October 2018 (another dude for the tool), this is what we get : PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 1.0 XBO : 324.4 points/day ; 0.57 Before the change : PS4 : 565.3 points/day ; 0.89 XBO : 637.0 points/day ; 1.0 NPD : PS4 : 340k ; 1.0 XBO : 215k ; 0.62 This looks pretty good, I have to try and see if I should include new bundles in this calculation as well (to see if it has an impact on NS numbers). I will have to look into November and December 2018 as well...

I admire your hard work man. Keep it up.

05/24/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 34 (+7) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 92 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb - 99 (R) - 207.79$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 9 = 83 points (-1) ; XBO : 2 points (+2) ; NS : 170 + 84 = 254 points (+24)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 41 (+10) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 68 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 72 (+14) - 249.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 83 (+6) - 399.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 95 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 145 = 335 points (-20) ; XBO : 70 + 33 + 29 + 6 = 138 points (+34) ; NS : 200 + 150 + 18 = 368 points (+1)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (+12)
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 39 (+3)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 124 (+20)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 125 (-14)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 165 (-8)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 198 (R) - 399.99$

PS4 : 135 + 38 = 173 points (+20) ; XBO : 0 points (-2) ; NS : 115 + 39 + 18 = 172 points (+11)

Overall :

1 - NS : 448.8 points (+30.4) ; Month Average : 437.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 306.4 points (+15.2) ; Month Average : 276.2 points/day ; 0.63 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 37.9 points (+8.3) ; Month Average : 53.2 points/day ; 0.12 (-0.01)


Thanks everyone. As soon as I find some times I will double check changes in the formula over several past month to validate them. Current month NS spike (50$ GC at gamestop) will have to be adjusted accordingly (not a huge change as only two SKUs for few days but still...).

Next idea is to consider new bundles (preorder and first week/month of release) as promotional SKUs as well. We will see.

Symbios63 said: 05/24/19 : Thanks everyone. As soon as I find some times I will double check changes in the formula over several past month to validate them. Current month NS spike (50$ GC at gamestop) will have to be adjusted accordingly (not a huge change as only two SKUs for few days but still...). Next idea is to consider new bundles (preorder and first week/month of release) as promotional SKUs as well. We will see.

Switch is on a rollercoaster right now. But like you said, that will get flattened a bit. Can't wait to see what the final will look like and how well it will match NPD.

About the new bundles: if they are special SKU, I would support it, especially when it's known from the get-go that the numbers will be limited.