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In progress NPD predicting tool

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So Xbox and PS4 are just trundling along. Switch doing well. Be interesting to see if as the big games come along if it makes any difference at this point... suspect it won't too much as we are at the tail end of this gen.



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03/14/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 38 (-23) - TP
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 45 (+5) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 73 (+13) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 94 + 28 = 122 points (+13) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 140 + 76 + 62 = 278 points (-34)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+5) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (+9) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 5 (+6) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 11 (+10) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 41 (+10) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 61 (+7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 195 = 395 points (+70) ; XBO : 160 + 70 = 230 points (+70) ; NS : 205 + 190 + 40 = 435 points (+57)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 12 (-3)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 39 (-4)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 84 (-6)
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 98 (-6)
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 99 (-19)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 121 (+14)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 54 = 239 points (-11) ; XBO : 52 + 40 = 92 point (-13) ; NS : 115 + 68 = 183 points (-16)

Overall :

1 - NS : 492.4 points (-31.8) ; Month Average : 584.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 415.6 points (+13.4) ; Month Average : 366.8 points/day ; 0.63 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 179.4 points (+1.3) ; Month Average : 259.7 points/day ; 0.44 (-0.01)



Tool correctly predicted the winner of February, Switch wins by a good margin.
However PS4 comfortably ahead of Xbox for 2nd place

NSW; 363k
PS4: 283k
Xbx: 225k



Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62



jason1637 said:
Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62

NSW & XBO ratios pretty good, PS4 very undertracked.



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zorg1000 said:
jason1637 said:
Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62

NSW & XBO ratios pretty good, PS4 very undertracked.

Well, not a horrible month for the tool. I think PS4 undertracking might be due to the lack of new SKU/promo compared to both Switch (35$ eshop bundle) and XBO (promo).

This will have to be included in the formula at some point using the months where the tool was obviously wrong but it will be easier when we have few more "bad" months.



03/15/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 16 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 44 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 67 (-29) - TP
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 71 (+2) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 88 + 30 = 118 points (-4) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 135 + 64 + 34 = 233 points (-45)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 8 (-4) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 11 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 32 (+9) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 52 (+9) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 175 = 370 points (-25) ; XBO : 160 + 88 = 248 points (+18) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 49 = 434 points (-1)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 19 (-7)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 37 (+2)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 93 (+5)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 101 (-17)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 104 (-5)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 141 (-20)
7 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 168 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 165 + 58 = 223 points (-16) ; XBO : 49 + 30 + 17 = 96 point (+4) ; NS : 120 + 50 = 170 points (-13)

Overall :

1 - NS : 443.2 points (-49.2) ; Month Average : 573.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 391.4 points (-24.2) ; Month Average : 368.7 points/day ; 0.64 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 189.3 points (+9.9) ; Month Average : 254.3 points/day ; 0.44 (-)



Welp, this tool has certainly help me do better better predictions than I ever had before ^^ Congrats !



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03/17/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 91 (-20) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 67 (-29) - TP

PS4 : 84 + 10 = 94 points (-24) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 120 + 66 = 186 points (-47)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-4) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 13 (-5) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 14 (-3) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 40 (-8) - 299.99$
7 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 50 (N) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 82 (-30) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 150 = 325 points (-45) ; XBO : 145 + 72 + 52 = 269 points (+21) ; NS : 205 + 170 + 19 = 394 points (-40)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (-2)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 82 (-45)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 96 (+5)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 108 (-15)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 116 (-12)
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 156 (+12)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 141 (-20)

PS4 : 160 + 47 = 207 points (-16) ; XBO : 43 + 23 = 66 point (-30) ; NS : 70 + 56 = 126 points (-44)

Overall :

1 - NS : 353.6 points (-89.6) ; Month Average : 546.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 347.2 points (-44.2) ; Month Average : 367.9 points/day ; 0.67 (+0.03)
3 - XBO : 155.7 points (-33.6) ; Month Average : 242.1 points/day ; 0.44 (-)



Damn every console took a hit.