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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Symbios63 on 06 April 2019

04/06/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (-1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 42 (-4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 83 (-13) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 96 (R) - 232.50$

PS4 : 86 + 18 = 104 points (-13) ; XBO : 0 points (-5) ; NS : 115 + 68 = 183 points (-13)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 2 (+3) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 14 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 18 (-2) - 299.99$
6 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 71 (+9) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 86 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

2 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 2 (R) - 399.99$

PS4 : 205 + 125 = 330 points (+5) ; XBO : 145 + 30 + 15 = 190 points (+5) ; NS : 210 + 180 = 390 points (-195)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 27 (+4)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 38 (+24)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 85 (+24)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 90 (+9)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 113 (+8)
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P - 133 (+17)
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 138 (+3)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 120 + 62 = 182 points (+40) ; XBO : 34 points (+8) ; NS : 145 + 66 + 44 + 32 = 287 points (+36)

Overall :

1 - NS : 511.4 points (-13.4) ; Month Average : 506.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 331.2 points (+30.6) ; Month Average : 310.8 points/day ; 0.61 (-)
3 - XBO : 93.6 points (+6.5) ; Month Average : 180.2 points/day ; 0.36 (-)


Final March update...



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Symbios63 on 07 April 2019

04/07/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 30 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 42 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 93 (-10) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 96 (R) - 232.50$

PS4 : 92 + 8 = 100 points (-4) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 130 + 68 = 198 points (+15)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 3 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 18 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (-3) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 59 (+12) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 64 (+22) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 110 = 310 points (-20) ; XBO : 125 + 42 + 37 = 204 points (+14) ; NS : 210 + 185 = 395 points (+5)


- Gamestop :

1 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 + 50$GC - 6 (N)
2 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P + 50$GC - 7 (N)
3 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V + 50$GC - 8 (N)
4 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White EPUB + 50$GC - 9 (N)
5 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + 50$GC - 10 (N)
6 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black P + 50$GC - 11 (N)
7 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 25 (+2)
8 (-6) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 44 (-6)
9 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 86 (-1)
10 (-6) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 113 (-23)
11 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 129 (-16)
12 (-6) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P - 138 (-5)
13 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 185 (-47)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 108 + 44 = 152 points (-30) ; XBO : 200 + 195 + 195 + 190 + 190 + 185 + 32 = 1187 points (+1153) ; NS : 150 + 66 + 36 + 8 = 260 points (-27)

Overall :

1 - XBO : 1596.1 points (-) ; Month Average : 1596.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 497.4 points (-) ; Month Average : 497.4 points/day ; 0.31
3 - PS4 : 294.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 294.0 points/day ; 0.18

XBO promotion at gamestop will probably induce a bias this month in favor of XBO. I will try to work with the formula to take into account promo SKUs when we have NPD results for April (I will have 4-5 months to work with...).



Bofferbrauer2 on 08 April 2019

Seriously at this rate, Microsoft could just cut the prices by 50-100$, that would be easier



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 08 April 2019
Marth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Seriously at this rate, Microsoft could just cut the prices by 50-100$, that would be easier

I think the rumored digital only XBOX ONE could improve the situation a lot and it would cover that pricerange.

I was expecting that one for 149-199$, meaning an XBO for 249$ and an One X for 400$ should be possible. Especially the latter could use a pricecut to compete better with the Pro.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 08 April 2019

04/08/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 17 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 42 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 94 (-1) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 96 (R) - 232.50$

PS4 : 88 + 7 = 95 points (-5) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 130 + 68 = 198 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 14 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 28 (-7) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 58 (+6) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 67 (-8) - 299.99$


Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 96 = 296 points (-14) ; XBO : 145 + 43 + 34 = 222 points (+18) ; NS : 210 + 175 = 385 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (+5) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black P + 50$GC - 6 (+5)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P + 50$GC - 7 (-)
3 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White EPUB + 50$GC - 8 (+1)
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V + 50$GC - 9 (-1)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + 50$GC - 10 (-)
6 (-5) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 + 50$GC - 11 (-5)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 28 (-3)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 43 (+1)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 102 (-16)
10 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 135 (-6)
11 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 165 (-52)

Out of Top 100 :

12 (-6) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P - 138 (-5)
13 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 185 (-47)

PS4 : 108 + 18 = 126 points (-26) ; XBO : 200 + 195 + 195 + 190 + 190 + 185 = 1155 points (-32) ; NS : 145 + 50 + 33 = 228 points (-32)

Overall :

1 - XBO : 1559.2 points (-36.9) ; Month Average : 1577.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 463.4 points (-34.0) ; Month Average : 480.4 points/day ; 0.30 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 261.2 points (-32.8) ; Month Average : 277.6 points/day ; 0.18 (-)



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Bofferbrauer2 on 08 April 2019
RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I was expecting that one for 149-199$, meaning an XBO for 249$ and an One X for 400$ should be possible. Especially the latter could use a pricecut to compete better with the Pro.

Why would retailers sell a digital-only console without a significant markup?

Is the digital-only Xbox One supposed to be exclusively available in Microsoft stores?

That's why I gave it up to 199$. I'm pretty sure by now the most expensive thing in the XBOS is the BD4K disc drive. Remove that and you can have a console with a very low pricetag... and some margin to give retailers to convince then stocking the unit. I calculate the production price of a discless XBO between $120 and $160 (20-25$ for casing, same for mainboard, around $30 for the APU and 20$ for the memory, plus 10-20$ assembly and shipping) depending on controllers, HDD (500GB for about 20$) and pack-in games, so even at $149.99 retailers could get some money out of it.

Plus, since Microsoft will make money with the games and especially gamepass with this unit, there's no reason for them not to subvention the unit to get them to retailers.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 08 April 2019
Mar1217 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's why I gave it up to 199$. I'm pretty sure by now the most expensive thing in the XBOS is the BD4K disc drive. Remove that and you can have a console with a very low pricetag... and some margin to give retailers to convince then stocking the unit. I calculate the production price of a discless XBO between $120 and $160 (20-25$ for casing, same for mainboard, around $30 for the APU and 20$ for the memory, plus 10-20$ assembly and shipping) depending on controllers, HDD (500GB for about 20$) and pack-in games, so even at $149.99 retailers could get some money out of it.

Plus, since Microsoft will make money with the games and especially gamepass with this unit, there's no reason for them not to subvention the unit to get them to retailers.

Subvention or not, I do not think retailers would have any incentive to sell an all digital console. They loose in the long run so why bother ?

Microsoft will probably be left to sell this iteration at their own store ... which I doubt many people will flock-in to buy this specific product.

Depends on the retailers. Gamestop probably wouldn't want without any other incentives, but I don't see an issue for general stores like Walmart.

RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's why I gave it up to 199$. I'm pretty sure by now the most expensive thing in the XBOS is the BD4K disc drive. Remove that and you can have a console with a very low pricetag... and some margin to give retailers to convince then stocking the unit. I calculate the production price of a discless XBO between $120 and $160 (20-25$ for casing, same for mainboard, around $30 for the APU and 20$ for the memory, plus 10-20$ assembly and shipping) depending on controllers, HDD (500GB for about 20$) and pack-in games, so even at $149.99 retailers could get some money out of it.

Plus, since Microsoft will make money with the games and especially gamepass with this unit, there's no reason for them not to subvention the unit to get them to retailers.

If the goal from the get-go is to subsidize such an SKU, then why go through the trouble when the existing Slim SKU could be subsidized all the same while being able to be produced in much larger numbers?

A disc drive costs what, ~$25 at most? Also, putting in a 500 GB HDD isn't thought through either, because that's filled up fast and the SKU would not be able to read discs to install games again, so repeated large downloads in a datacap country would be the norm for anyone who plays more than 5-10 games.

You have to remember that the PSP Go got rid of its UMD drive and in turn launched $50 more expensive than the regular PSP SKU. When retailers aren't going to see any money from a consoler buyer again, they want a hefty margin on this one-time sale. Realistically, I don't see how Microsoft could offer a discless Xbox One at all major retailers that is cheaper than a Slim.

A DVD drive costs even less than 25$, and a BD-Rom drive costs slightly more. But a BD4K drive has still a major pricetag due to scarcity and novelty. That's also one of the main reasons why 4K Blu-Ray players still cost around $500

The PSP Go was more expensive mainly because of the integrated Flash memory. Flash Memory was still very expensive at the time (it's also the reason why the Switch only has 32GB of it), so even a small amount was a major price point. But it's 16GB of flash memory in 2009 was akin to installing a 1TB SSD in the Switch nowadays. The PSP Go was too early on many aspects to be viable; price of flash memory back then is one of them. I even think that Sony sold the PSP Go with a strong subsidy to retailers because of the expensive Flash memory.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 April 2019

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 10 April 2019

04/10/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (+5) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 26 (+6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (+17) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 96 (R) - 232.50$

PS4 : 100 + 24 = 124 points (+29) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 155 + 70 = 225 points (+27)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 22 (+6) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 23 (-9) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 76 (-9) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 58 (+6) - 299.99$

PS4 : 200 + 108 = 308 points (+12) ; XBO : 106 + 25 = 131 points (-91) ; NS : 210 + 185 = 395 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black P + 50$GC - 2 (+4)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P + 50$GC - 3 (4)
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White EPUB + 50$GC - 4 (+4)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V + 50$GC - 5 (+4)
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 + 50$GC - 6 (+5)
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + 50$GC - 7 (+3)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 25 (+3)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (-6)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 82 (+20)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 170 (-35)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 190 (-25)
12 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 195 (-10)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 6 = 108 points (-18) ; XBO : 210 + 205 + 205 + 200 + 200 + 195 = 1215 points (+60) ; NS : 150 + 70 + 16 + 3 = 239 points (+11)

Overall :

1 - XBO : 1613.6 points (+54.4) ; Month Average : 1585.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 498.0 points (+34.6) ; Month Average : 487.0 points/day ; 0.31 (+0.01)
3 - PS4 : 268.8 points (+7.6) ; Month Average : 275.8 points/day ; 0.17 (-0.01)



Bofferbrauer2 on 10 April 2019

April NPD will become interesting with that extreme distortion at Gamestop.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

chakkra on 10 April 2019
Symbios63 said:

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black P + 50$GC - 2 (+4)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White P + 50$GC - 3 (4)
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White EPUB + 50$GC - 4 (+4)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V + 50$GC - 5 (+4)
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 + 50$GC - 6 (+5)
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + 50$GC - 7 (+3)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 25 (+3)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (-6)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 82 (+20)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 170 (-35)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 190 (-25)
12 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 195 (-10)

Wait, so the XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 is basically selling for $350 then?