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In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Great start for the NPT(NPD Predicting Tool).

So, based on the chart we have now Switch is likely to take the number 1 spot for February?

That's putting it lightly, if the data is correct then the Switch would probably still win February if it would stop selling this instant.

Also, we should have called it NPD prediction Data to make it a backronym of NPD again.



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StarDoor said:
globalisateur said:
February is not going to be kind for the tool. The order could be OK, but the ratios will certainly be completely off.

Why do you think the ratios will be completely off? If anything, the ratios should be better this month than they were in January thanks to Xbox One charting again.

I am talking about the ratio between xb1 and ps4.



globalisateur said:
StarDoor said:

Why do you think the ratios will be completely off? If anything, the ratios should be better this month than they were in January thanks to Xbox One charting again.

I am talking about the ratio between xb1 and ps4.

Well, with the Fallout bundle having been 100$ off the first 2 weeks and then all the Xbox bundles being 50$ off, it actually wouldn't surprise me if the PS4 would actually be third for once.

But in any case, the PS4 is still barely in front - and whenever the Xbox promotion ends Microsoft's console will slump again into the depths of the charts.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 22 February 2019

02/22/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 16 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 33 (-1) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (-4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 47 (+16) - 285.99$
5 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 65 (+22) - 233.00$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 68 (-) - 399.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 81 (-4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 58 + 33 + 20 = 111 points (+16) ; XBO : 36 points (+22) ; NS : 135 + 86 + 72 = 293 points (+10)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 9 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 13 (-2) - 249.99$
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 - 89 (R) - 249.99$

PS4 : 200 + 190 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 170 + 150 = 320 points (-17) ; NS : 210 + 160 + 140 = 510 points (+5)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 35 (-8)
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 85 (+75)
3 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 108 (-22)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 127 (+26)
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 167 (-26)
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 169 (R)
7 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P White - 177 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 177 (+9)

PS4 : 17 + 16 = 33 points (+3) ; XBO : 66 + 47 + 12 = 125 point (+38) ; NS : 125 + 37 = 162 points (-19)

Overall :

1 - NS : 498.4 points (-10.0) ; Month Average : 501.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 199.8 points (+14.8) ; Month Average : 242.5 points/day ; 0.48 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 285.1 points (+67.8) ; Month Average : 221.8 points/day ; 0.44 (-)



Hardware revision shares (Feb 21):

PS4:

Slim: (58+20)*0.8+200*02+17= 119.4
Pro: 33*08+190*0.2+16= 80.4

Slim/Pro ratio: 60/40%

Xbox One:

S: (36*0.8+ 150*0.2+66)*1.3= 162.2
X: (0+170*0.2+47+12)*1.3= 120.9

S/X ratio: 57.3/42.7%

Slim+S 281.6/Pro+X 201.3

Total ratio: 58.3%/41.7%

Big push from the S and small one for the Pro. In fact, all winnings today are just for one model: The S model for the XBO and the Pro model for the PS4. The sales of the PS4 Slim are remarkably stable and stay around 120 points for 3 days now.



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02/23/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 19 (-3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 36 (-3) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 60 (+8) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 67 (-20) - TP
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 78 (+3) - 299.99$
7 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 79 (-14) - 233.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 41 + 34 + 23 = 98 points (-13) ; XBO : 22 points (-14) ; NS : 120 + 80 + 70 = 270 points (-23)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 5 (-4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-3) - 399.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 16 (-3) - 249.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-3) - 299.99$
8 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 55 (N) - 249.99$
9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield V - 72 (+7) - 449.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 175 = 360 points (-30) ; XBO : 165 + 135 + 46 + 29 = 375 points (+55) ; NS : 190 + 140 + 130 = 460 points (-50)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 32 (+3)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 43 (+42)
3 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 103 (+5)
4 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 118 (+51)
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 126 (+1)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 135 (+32)
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P White - 167 (+10)
8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 172 (R)
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 178 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 42 + 33 = 75 points (+42) ; XBO : 108 + 49 + 17 + 15 = 189 point (+64) ; NS : 135 + 38 + 12 = 185 points (+23)

Overall :

1 - NS : 493.0 points (-5.4) ; Month Average : 500.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 225.4 points (+25.6) ; Month Average : 241.7 points/day ; 0.48 (-)
3 - XBO : 366.1 points (+83.0) ; Month Average : 228.7 points/day ; 0.46 (+0.02)



Hardware revision shares (Feb 23):

PS4:

Slim: (34+23)*0.8+185*02+33= 115.6
Pro: 41*08+175*0.2+42= 109.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 51.3/48.7%

Xbox One:

S: (22*0.8+ (165+46)*0.2+108+15)*1.3= 235.8
X: (0+(135+29)*0.2+49+17)*1.3= 128.5

S/X ratio: 64.7/35.3%

Slim+S 281.6/Pro+X 201.3

Total ratio: 58.3%/41.7%

Big push from the S again, outselling the PS4 models by itself. The Slim model is the only one who didn't increase in fact, which results in the Pro creeping up on it again.



Also, very close battle for the second spot, this might get a very close one



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Also, very close battle for the second spot, this might get a very close one

This is gonna be so close that it is actually gonna be quite an achievement for the tool if it can get the rankings right.



chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Also, very close battle for the second spot, this might get a very close one

This is gonna be so close that it is actually gonna be quite an achievement for the tool if it can get the rankings right.

Well, that also depends if they are correct of course. First spot is clear, and outselling the competition combined or at least on par of both together mostly too. But PS4 and XBO are still in tossup territory. Unless they break away from each other real soon they'll stay that way, too.

Anybody knows how long that 50$ promotion on the XBO will last? Because I'm sure XBO sales will slump down deep again when it's over.