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In progress NPD predicting tool

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02/20/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 20 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 32 (-4) - 298.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 37 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (-15) - TP
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 55 (R) - 233.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 75 (R) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-8) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 70 (-3) - 219.00$

PS4 : 54 + 26 + 15 = 95 points (-12) ; XBO : 46 points (+15) ; NS : 115 + 88 + 78 = 281 points (+3)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 8 (+5) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+5) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+7) - 299.99$
7 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 17 (-2) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+20) ; XBO : 175 + 130 = 305 points (+15) ; NS : 210 + 145 + 140 = 495 points (+62)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 26 (+6)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 76 (-3)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 160 (-38)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 174 (-31)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 180 (-18)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 186 (-14)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 21 points (-19) ; XBO : 76 + 11 = 87 point (-11) ; NS : 150 + 14 + 8 = 172 points (-7)

Overall :

1 - NS : 495.8 points (+7.8) ; Month Average : 500.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 174.0 points (-24.6) ; Month Average : 248.1 points/day ; 0.50 (-)
3 - XBO : 240.2 points (+5.2) ; Month Average : 218.7 points/day ; 0.44 (+0.01)



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January :

Tool : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.76 ; XBO : 0.10
NPD : NS : 1.0 ; PS4 : 0.69 ; XBO : 0.36

Good month again ! XBO sharp drop was detected but overestimated. This is not a surprise as when a product get out of the charts often, it is mechanically undertracked due to 0 point being lower from the truth... We need top500s... lol



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Hardware revision shares (Feb 19):

PS4:

Slim: 84*0.8+185*02+40= 144.2
Pro: 23*08+180*0.2+0= 54.4

Slim/Pro ratio: 72.6/27.4%

Xbox One:

S: 31*0.8+ 140*0.2+0= 52.8
X: 0+150*0.2+78+20= 128

S/X ratio: 29.2/70.8%

Slim+S 197/Pro+X 182.4

Total ratio: 51.9%/48.1%

S and Slim are practically not moving at all, neither does the Pro. Almost all changes from today stem from the X rising at Gamestop again.

All of your ratio posts look very interesting to me.  Especially since PS4 is mostly selling its base (slim) model, while XB1 is mostly selling the X model.  Looks like Microsoft made the right call making the X more powerful than the PS4 Pro.  Most of the people who want a premium console are going for the absolutely highest specs (XB1X).  Meanwhile, the people buying the cheaper models are going for the better game library which is obviously PS4. 

Thank you very much

I just remarked that I always forgot to use the 1.3 multiplier on Xbox. will make correct numbers starting the next update. will probably not change too much except keep the Pro/X from dropping under 50% again as the X profits much more from it.



Hardware revision shares (Feb 20):

PS4:

Slim: (54+26)*0.8+200*02+21= 125
Pro: 15*08+185*0.2+0= 49

Slim/Pro ratio: 71.8/28.2%

Xbox One:

S: (46*0.8+ 130*0.2+0)*1.3= 81.6
X: (0+175*0.2+76+11)*1.3= 158.6

S/X ratio: 34/66%

Slim+S 206.6/Pro+X 207.6

Total ratio: 49.9%/50.1%

First one with the 1.3 multiplier applied for the Xbox, and that's juuuust enough to get the mid-life upgrades past 50%.



02/21/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 20 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 32 (-) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 63 (-14) - TP
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 68 (+18) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 77 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 87 (-32) - 233.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 38 + 33 + 24 = 95 points (-) ; XBO : 14 points (-32) ; NS : 115 + 88 + 80 = 283 points (+2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (-2) - 399.99$
5 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 11 (+6) - 249.99$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+1) - 299.99$
8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2k19 - 89 (R) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 190 = 395 points (+10) ; XBO : 165 + 160 + 12 = 337 points (+22) ; NS : 210 + 150 + 145 = 505 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 27 (-1)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 86 (-10)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 141 (+19)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 153 (+21)
5 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 160 (N)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 177 (+9)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 180 (-18)

PS4 : 30 points (+9) ; XBO : 66 + 21 = 87 point (-) ; NS : 145 + 24 + 12 = 181 points (+9)

Overall :

1 - NS : 508.4 points (+12.6) ; Month Average : 501.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 185.0 points (+11.0) ; Month Average : 244.8 points/day ; 0.49 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 215.3 points (-24.9) ; Month Average : 218.6 points/day ; 0.44 (-)



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February is not going to be kind for the tool. The order could be OK, but the ratios will certainly be completely off.



globalisateur said:
February is not going to be kind for the tool. The order could be OK, but the ratios will certainly be completely off.

Why do you think the ratios will be completely off? If anything, the ratios should be better this month than they were in January thanks to Xbox One charting again.



globalisateur said:
February is not going to be kind for the tool. The order could be OK, but the ratios will certainly be completely off.

I wouldn't count on that if I were you.

  1. XBO charting again, so the problem there from last month is solved.
  2. No preorders screwing with the charts this month either.
  3. No BF/retail only deals which screw with the data here either, which is the reason why the tool is off during the holiday season.

So yeah, it looks increasingly realistic that the Switch will outsell PS4 2:1 and PS4+XBO combined this month.



Hardware revision shares (Feb 21):

PS4:

Slim: (38+24)*0.8+205*02+30= 120.6
Pro: 33*08+190*0.2+0= 64.4

Slim/Pro ratio: 65.2/34.8%

Xbox One:

S: (14*0.8+ (160+12)*0.2+21)*1.3= 86.3
X: (0+165*0.2+66)*1.3= 128.7

S/X ratio: 40.1/59.9%

Slim+S 206.9/Pro+X 193.1

Total ratio: 51.7%/48.3%

X sliding down, and the rise of the Pro sales ain't enough to counterbalance this. Slim/S sales are virtually unchanged, the variation was only behind the comma after adding both together.



Great start for the NPT(NPD Predicting Tool).

So, based on the chart we have now Switch is likely to take the number 1 spot for February?