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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

03/06/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 7 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 45 (+10) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 50 (+4) - 299.00$
4 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 55 (-2) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 74 (+5) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 88 (+5) - 229.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 95 (-4) - 389.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 96 (-1) - 227.00$

PS4 : 62 + 27 = 89 points (+21) ; XBO : 13 + 6 = 19 points (-4) ; NS : 180 + 52 + 46 = 278 points (+13)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 8 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (-1) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 13 (-1) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 42 (+1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 185 = 395 points (-) ; XBO : 150 + 68 = 218 points (-3) ; NS : 200 + 175 + 160 = 535 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (-)
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 47 (+3)
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 56 (-43) - Unavailable
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 69 (-35) - Unavailable
5 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 118 (-10)
6 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 121 (+29)
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 131 (-10)
8 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 132 (-94) - Unavailable
9 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 154 (+3)
10 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 175 (-119)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 35 = 210 points (-5) ; XBO : 104 + 40 + 13 = 157 point (-67) ; NS : 96 + 82 + 42 + 35 + 24 = 279 points (-220)

Overall :

1 - NS : 608.4 points (-211.6) ; Month Average : 762.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 280.5 points (-92.1) ; Month Average : 377.3 points/day ; 0.49 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 360.2 points (+11.8) ; Month Average : 334.8 points/day ; 0.44 (+0.04)


50$ XBO promotion did end at Gamestop as well.
Pokemon bundles at Gamestop are now unavailable as expected and should disapear quickly.
More surprising, the 35$ Neon bundle is currently unavailable as well (at gamestop).



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Hardware revision shares (March 6):

PS4:

Slim: (62)*0.8+(210)*02+175= 266.6
Pro: 27*08+185*0.2+35= 93.6

Slim/Pro ratio: 74/26%

Xbox One:

S: ((13)*0.8+ (68)*0.2+104+13)*1.3= 183.3
X: (6*0.8+(150)*0.2+40)*1.3= 97.2

S/X ratio: 65.3/34.7%

Slim+S 540.9/Pro+X 180.1

Total ratio: 75%/25%

XBO 50$ promotion is ending, and the S immediately drops a big chunk of it's sales. Almost as foreboding, I had to type 13 into the calculator so many times when getting the S ratio numbers. On the other hand the Slim extends it's lead over the Pro a bit.



Symbios63 said:
03/06/19 :

- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (-)
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 47 (+3)
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 56 (-43) - Unavailable
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 69 (-35) - Unavailable
5 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 118 (-10)
6 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 121 (+29)
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 131 (-10)
8 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 132 (-94) - Unavailable
9 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 154 (+3)
10 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 175 (-119)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 35 = 210 points (-5) ; XBO : 104 + 40 + 13 = 157 point (-67) ; NS : 96 + 82 + 42 + 35 + 24 = 279 points (-220)

Overall :

1 - NS : 608.4 points (-211.6) ; Month Average : 762.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 280.5 points (-92.1) ; Month Average : 377.3 points/day ; 0.49 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 360.2 points (+11.8) ; Month Average : 334.8 points/day ; 0.44 (+0.04)


50$ XBO promotion did end at Gamestop as well.
Pokemon bundles at Gamestop are now unavailable as expected and should disapear quickly.
More surprising, the 35$ Neon bundle is currently unavailable as well (at gamestop).

Might just be that Gamestop sold all of their allocated consoles for that promo. So probably the ones of Amazon and Best Buy will end soon, too, normalizing sales data for all 3 consoles.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wow, Switch is on fire and for apparently no reason.

35$ Gift card is certainly helping in this regard, as does the comeback of the PLG bundles on Gamestop.

However, I'm sure the Switch will still lead when the promotion ends, just not by as much.

Thanks, I forgot about the $35 gift card promotion.  Any idea when that ends?



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

35$ Gift card is certainly helping in this regard, as does the comeback of the PLG bundles on Gamestop.

However, I'm sure the Switch will still lead when the promotion ends, just not by as much.

Thanks, I forgot about the $35 gift card promotion.  Any idea when that ends?

Well, it's already sold out at Gamestop, so possibly very soon.



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Siwtch's holiday sales this year are going to be completely absurd. I won't be surprised if it sets a new record for a system during q4.



03/07/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 5 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 40 (+5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 45 (+5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 57 (-2) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 77 (-3) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 94 (-6) - 239.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 95 (-4) - 389.99$

PS4 : 72 + 24 = 96 points (+7) ; XBO : 7 points (-12) ; NS : 190 + 62 + 44 = 296 points (+18)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 9 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 14 (-1) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 42 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 180 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 145 + 68 = 213 points (-5) ; NS : 200 + 170 + 160 = 530 points (-5)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 16 (-1)
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 83 (-36)
3 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 92 (+39)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 95 (-26) - Unavailable
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 111 (+10)
6 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 113 (+41)
7 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 116 (+2)
8 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 169 (-113) - Unavailable
9 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 191 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 132 (-94) - Unavailable
10 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 175 (-119)

PS4 : 175 + 60 = 235 points (+25) ; XBO : 68 + 45 + 5 = 118 point (-39) ; NS : 56 + 44 + 43 + 16 = 159 points (-120)

Overall :

1 - NS : 501.8 points (-106.6) ; Month Average : 710.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - PS4 : 389.8 points (+29.6) ; Month Average : 345.8 points/day ; 0.49 (+0.05)
3 (-1) - XBO : 216.1 points (-64.4) ; Month Average : 345.1 points/day ; 0.49 (-)



HyrulianScrolls said:

Siwtch's holiday sales this year are going to be completely absurd. I won't be surprised if it sets a new record for a system during q4.

Highly unlikely, the current records are completely absurd.



Hardware revision shares (March 7):

PS4:

Slim: (72)*0.8+(210)*02+175= 274.6
Pro: 24*08+180*0.2+60= 115.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 70.4/29.6%

Xbox One:

S: ((7)*0.8+ (68)*0.2+68)*1.3= 113.3
X: (0*0.8+(145)*0.2+45+5)*1.3= 102.7

S/X ratio: 52.4/47.6%

Slim+S 387.9/Pro+X 217.9

Total ratio: 64%/36%

XBO 50$ promotion has ended, and the S is dropping further down and down, and the X is selling a bit better again. The Pro also grows a bit faster than the Slim, which results in the ratio of the upgrade consoles rapidly growing again.



I'm kinda surprised the $35 gift card promotion for Switch is attractive enough to entice more consumers. Sure, its basically a few free games from the eshop, but its not necessarily a must get, even at this time of year. Kudos to whoever thought of using a $35 gift card as an enticing promotion, especially after the huge holiday explosion that was Smash Bros. and Switch.