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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Sorry for not updtaing the ratios the last couple days. As a bonus you'll get four at once now, so enjoy

Hardware revision shares (Feb 13):

PS4:

Slim: 78*0.8+190*02+86= 186.4
Pro: 22*08+175*0.2+35= 87.6

Slim/Pro ratio: 68/32%

Xbox One:

S: 29*0.8+ 49*0.2+0= 33
X: 0+160*0.2+76+49= 157

S/X ratio: 17.4/82.6%

Slim+S 219.4/Pro+X 244.6

Total ratio: 47.3%/52.7%

Hardware revision shares (Feb 14):

PS4:

Slim: 74*0.8+185*02+90= 186.2
Pro: 36*08+165*0.2+39= 100.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 64.9/35.1%

Xbox One:

S: 43*0.8+ 58*0.2+0= 46.2
X: 0+170*0.2+80+32= 146

S/X ratio: 24/76%

Slim+S 232.4/Pro+X 246.8

Total ratio: 48.5%/51.5%

Hardware revision shares (Feb 15):

PS4:

Slim: 66*0.8+180*02+68= 158.8
Pro: 27*08+155*0.2+48= 100.6

Slim/Pro ratio: 61.2/38.8%

Xbox One:

S: 34*0.8+ 46*0.2+0= 36.4
X: 0+160*0.2+60+37= 129

S/X ratio: 22/78%

Slim+S 195.2/Pro+X 229.6

Total ratio: 46%/54%

Hardware revision shares (Feb 16):

PS4:

Slim: 78*0.8+160*02+40= 134.4
Pro: 16*08+115*0.2+35= 70.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 65.5/34.5%

Xbox One:

S: 37*0.8+ 34*0.2+0= 36.4
X: 0+155*0.2+31+30= 92

S/X ratio: 28.4/71.6%

Slim+S 170.8/Pro+X 162.8

Total ratio: 51.2%/48.8%

The upgrade consoles seem to outsell the base consoles most of the time, if not by much. Time will tell if that's just because of the Fallout bundle being 100$ off or if that's the normal ratio. Also, PS4 Pro sales are pretty consistently over 30% of total PS4 sales by now.

While the S is almost always under those 30%, we have to consider that the Fallout 76 bundle is 100$ off, so I won't call it a trend yet. Let's see the following weeks, as botht e S and the X will be 50$ off then, balancing the whole thing a bit more.



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Also, those drops in sales the last couple days on PlayStation and Xbox side. Looks like the Switch is trying to outsell both combined this month



Today is the day the xbox price drops goes into effect. Interested to see its impact on the ratios.



When does the NPD report comes live?



Chorlin said:
When does the NPD report comes live?

Tuesday 



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MasonADC said:
Chorlin said:
When does the NPD report comes live?

Tuesday 

Thanks



02/18/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (-) - 298.99$
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 32 (+10) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (+4) - 299.95$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (+1) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 67 (-3) - 219.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 90 (-5) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 11 = 97 points (+3) ; XBO : 34 points (-3) ; NS : 102 + 88 + 74 = 264 points (+22)


- Best Buy :

1 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 1 (+12) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (+6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 9 (+3) - 399.99$
4 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (+9) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-11) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 18 (+49) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 160 = 350 points (+75) ; XBO : 170 + 125 = 295 points (+106) ; NS : 210 + 145 + 140 = 495 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 28 (-6)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 111 (-43)
3 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 112 (+27)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 132 (-11)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 164 (-23)
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 174 (-42)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 191 (-26)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 35 + 14 = 49 points (-26) ; XBO : 45 + 19 = 64 point (+3) ; NS : 145 + 45 + 5 = 195 points (-67)

Overall :

1 - NS : 505.2 points (-46.4) ; Month Average : 501.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 196.6 points (-8.6) ; Month Average : 255.8 points/day ; 0.51 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 195.3 points (+28.4) ; Month Average : 216.4 points/day ; 0.43 (-0.01)



Hardware revision shares (Feb 18):

PS4:

Slim: 86*0.8+190*02+35= 141.8
Pro: 11*08+160*0.2+14= 54.8

Slim/Pro ratio: 72.1/27.9%

Xbox One:

S: 34*0.8+ 125*0.2+0= 52.2
X: 0+170*0.2+45+19= 98

S/X ratio: 34.8/65.2%

Slim+S 194/Pro+X 152.8

Total ratio: 55.9%/44.1%


Total sales of PS4/XBO are going down, and what's mostly going down are the mid-gen upgrades while the base consoles are more stable.

The 50$ promotion of the Xbox doesn't seem to do much, it mostly just boosted the S at Best Buy and not much else.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Also, those drops in sales the last couple days on PlayStation and Xbox side. Looks like the Switch is trying to outsell both combined this month

Well a $35 price cut will always help.



02/19/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 23 (+9) - 299.00$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 28 (-3) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (-1) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (+1) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 70 (-3) - 219.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 78 (+12) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 23 = 107 points (+10) ; XBO : 31 points (-3) ; NS : 106 + 96 + 76 = 278 points (+14)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (+4) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 13 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 15 (+3) - 249.99$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-5) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 22 (-7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 180 = 365 points (+15) ; XBO : 150 + 140 = 290 points (-5) ; NS : 205 + 120 + 108 = 433 points (-62)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 32 (-4)
2 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 73 (+39)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 122 (+10)
4 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 143 (-32)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 162 (+2)
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 172 (+19)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 174 (-42)

PS4 : 40 points (-9) ; XBO : 78 + 20 = 98 point (+34) ; NS : 135 + 29 + 15 = 179 points (-16)

Overall :

1 - NS : 488.0 points (-17.2) ; Month Average : 501.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 198.6 points (+2.0) ; Month Average : 252.4 points/day ; 0.50 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 235.1 points (+39.8) ; Month Average : 217.5 points/day ; 0.43 (-)