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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?



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Hardware revision shares (March 2nd):

PS4:

Slim: (23+9)*0.8+(210)*02+160= 227.6
Pro: 40*08+185*0.2+32= 101

Slim/Pro ratio: 69.3/30.7%

Xbox One:

S: (21*0.8+ (140+64)*0.2+125+98)*1.3= 364.8
X: (0*0.8+(165+16)*0.2+35)*1.3= 92.5

S/X ratio: 79.8/20.2%

Slim+S 592.4/Pro+X 193.5

Total ratio: 75.4%/24.6%

Little changes in the ratios right now, Pro/X lost a little bit but the change is negligible.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?

That got tended to, the calculation gets multiplied by 1.3 to get it's end result on the graph to counter that tracking error we had in the past.



Symbios you'll have to introduce a variable "Number of SKU" in your methodology and a weight with the rank system.



03/03/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 11 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 49 (-4) - 298.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 51 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (-8) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 83 (-3) - 233.00$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 86 (+6) - 319.99$
7 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 93 (R) - TP
8 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 97 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 78 (R) - 299.99$


PS4 : 32 + 15 = 47 points (-25) ; XBO : 18 + 8 + 4 = 30 points (+9) ; NS : 160 + 54 + 50 = 264 points (-8)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+4) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 5 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 11 (-1) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 16 (-1) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 59 (-15) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 180 = 390 points (-5) ; XBO : 160 + 135 + 42 = 337 points (-32) ; NS : 200 + 190 + 170 = 560 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 10 (-)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 18 (+4)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Anthem - 28 (+8)
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee + Pokeball Charger - 38 (+85)
5 (+4) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 52 (+92)
6 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 63 (-9)
7 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 125 (-25)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 136 (+2)
9 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 147 (-15)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 33 = 203 points (+11) ; XBO : 145 + 88 + 27 = 260 point (+2) ; NS : 190 + 120 + 100 + 38 = 448 points (+138)

Overall :

1 - NS : 771.2 points (-) ; Month Average : 771.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 456.8 points (-) ; Month Average : 456.8 points/day ; 0.59 (-)
3 - PS4 : 318.6 points (-) ; Month Average : 318.6 points/day ; 0.41 (-)



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I wonder if the S is selling well as a 4k blu ray player along with the 4k TV's people are purchasing with their tax returns.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
IIRC, the XBox1 tends to be undertracked a bit on this tool right? Doesn't that mean it will likely take second place?

That got tended to, the calculation gets multiplied by 1.3 to get it's end result on the graph to counter that tracking error we had in the past.

Ok thanks.  It really is close for second place then.



globalisateur said:
Symbios you'll have to introduce a variable "Number of SKU" in your methodology and a weight with the rank system.

The different stores are already weighted. Gamestop is at 100%, Amazon at 80% and Best Buy at only 20%.

Also, the higher they get the more points they get per position. 51-100 are worth 1 point, 21-50 are worth 2 points and 1-20 5 points.

ironmanDX said: 
I wonder if the S is selling well as a 4k blu ray player along with the 4k TV's people are purchasing with their tax returns.

Is that worth it, though? Blu-ray Player should be much cheaper than a XBOS by now

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 04 March 2019

Also, wtf did my post go? I had done the entire calculations for today. Oh well, the changes were minimal today anyway, so I won't redo it



Bofferbrauer2 said: 
ironmanDX said: 
I wonder if the S is selling well as a 4k blu ray player along with the 4k TV's people are purchasing with their tax returns.

Is that worth it, though? Blu-ray Player should be much cheaper than a XBOS by now

Regular Blu-Ray players are much cheaper but he's talking about 4K Blu-Ray players which I think are still like $200 if you get one of the big brands.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.