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In progress NPD predicting tool

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Hardware revision shares (Feb 8):

PS4:

Slim: 82*0.8+185*02+58= 160.6 61%
Pro: 24*08+190*0.2+45= 102.2 39%

Xbox One:

S: (44+6)*0.8+ 68*0.2+0= 53.8 23.2%
X: 0+155*0.2+62+46+21= 160 74.8%

Slim+S 214.4/Pro+X 262.2 45%/55%

X Fallout 76 is dropping of a bit, equalizing the Slim/S and the Pro/X again a bit more



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
With that gap, either the Switch is selling significantly faster than last year or both PS4 and XBO dropped down significantly

Or a bit of both?



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I agree with peachbuggy. Switch is probably up YoY while the other two are down.



Still early days yet, no need to panic about Xbox and ps4... I think most people expect them to be down unless they drop the price and I think that Sony think why bother when people buying consoles this late in the gen are not going to be spending that much on the accessories and games so I think we can accept that except for the odd occasion Sony will be looking to keep profits high and that means it will drop by in yearly sales.



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jason1637 said:
I agree with peachbuggy. Switch is probably up YoY while the other two are down.

Even then, didn't PS4 win February NPD last year? If yes then the PS4 and the Switch must still have moved a lot



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Did X1 have a huge amount of pre-order points for February? PS4 has a healthy lead over X1 by 50 points on Amazon and 150 points by Best Buy, yet in terms of overall points the X1 is ahead and I can't really figure out why.



Megiddo said:
Did X1 have a huge amount of pre-order points for February? PS4 has a healthy lead over X1 by 50 points on Amazon and 150 points by Best Buy, yet in terms of overall points the X1 is ahead and I can't really figure out why.

PS4 formula : Amazon*0.8 + BB*0.2 + GS*1

XBO formula : (Amazon*0.8 + BB*0.2 + GS*1)*1.3

 

The 1.3 factor comes from the fact XBO were always undertracked by the tools during first 3/4 month. Results have been better with this change. 

ps : There are no preorder for February.



02/10/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 35 (-) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 59 (-2) - 219.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (+2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 97 (-2) - 233.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 26 = 108 points (+2) ; XBO : 42 + 4 = 46 points (-4) ; NS : 150 + 92 = 242 points (+2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (+2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 40 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 175 = 365 points (-10) ; XBO : 165 + 72 = 237 points (+14) ; NS : 210 + 185 = 395 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 41 (+1)
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 96 (-2)
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 104 (-20)
4 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 108 (-19)
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 123 (-11)
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White D - 148 (+11)
7 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 160 (N)
8 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 185 (-75)



Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 56 + 39 = 95 points (-8) ; XBO : 47 + 27 + 8 = 82 point (-47) ; NS : 110 + 49 + 21 = 180 points (+2)

Overall :

1 - NS : 452.6 points (+5.6) ; Month Average : 444.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 254.4 points (-8.4) ; Month Average : 267.9 points/day ; 0.60 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 216.1 points (-61.6) ; Month Average : 215.6 points/day ; 0.48 (-0.01)



Hardware revision shares (Feb 10):

PS4:

Slim: 82*0.8+190*02+56= 159.6 62.7%
Pro: 26*08+175*0.2+39= 94.8 37.3%

Xbox One:

S: (42+4)*0.8+ 72*0.2+0= 51 30.7%
X: 0+165*0.2+47+27+8= 115 69.3%

Slim+S 210.6/Pro+X 209.8 50.1%/49.9%

X Fallout 76 is dropping of a lot, totally equalizing the Slim/S and the Pro/X again. The Slim is also very slowly growing it's share again, almost reaching 2/3 of the PS4 sales.



02/12/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+2) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 34 (+1) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 72 (-13) - 219.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 83 (-8) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 96 (+1) - 233.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 84 + 18 = 102 points (-6) ; XBO : 29 + 5 = 34 points (-12) ; NS : 160 + 102 = 262 points (+20)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-3) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-4) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 15 (-5) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 52 (-12) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 160 = 330 points (-35) ; XBO : 140 + 49 = 189 points (-48) ; NS : 195 + 175 = 370 points (-25)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 29 (+12)
2 (+5) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 31 (+129)
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 73 (+23)
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 96 (+12)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White D - 120 (+28)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 135 (-12)
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 160 (+25)
8 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 166 (-62)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 + 33 = 111 points (+16) ; XBO : 56 + 41 + 21 = 118 point (+36) ; NS : 140 + 135 + 18 = 293 points (+113)

Overall :

1 - NS : 576.6 points (+126.0) ; Month Average : 466.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 258.6 points (+4.2) ; Month Average : 265.7 points/day ; 0.57 (-0.03)
3 - XBO : 237.9 points (+21.8) ; Month Average : 219.3 points/day ; 0.47 (-0.01)