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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

January Summaries :

Amazon : 1) NS : 240.4 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 91.2 points/day ; 3) XBO : 3.6 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 378.2 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 332.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 137.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 153.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 151.7 points/day ; 3) XBO : 3.1 points/day



Overall : 1) NS : 419.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 320.9 points/day (0.76) ; 3) XBO : 43.7 points/day (0.10)



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Hardware revision shares:

PS4:

Slim: 78+8+170+32=288 50.8%
Pro: 37+180+62=279 49.2%

Xbox One:

S: 102+17=119 43.1%
X: 115+42=157 56.9%

Slim+S 407/Pro+X 436 48.3%/51.7%

And X is in front again. Pro and Slim are almost selling the same amount now.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 05 February 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Hardware revision shares:

PS4:

Slim: 78+8+170+32=288 50.8%
Pro: 37+180+62=279 49.2%

Xbox One:

S: 102+17=119 43.1%
X: 115+42=157 56.9%

Slim+S 407/Pro+X 436 48.3%/51.7%

And X is in front again. Pro and Slim are almost selling the same amount now.

If you take into account retailer weighting this is what you get :

 

PS4 :

Slim : (78+8)*0.8 + 170*0.2 + 32 = 68.8 + 34 + 32 = 134.8 (51.4%)

Pro : 37*0.8 + 180*0.2 + 62 = 29.6 + 36 + 62 = 127.6 (48.6%)

 

XBO :

S : 102*0.2 + 17 = 20.4 + 17 = 37.4 (54.4%)

X : (115+42)*0.2 = 31.4 (45.6%)



Symbios63 said:
January Summaries :

Amazon : 1) NS : 240.4 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 91.2 points/day ; 3) XBO : 3.6 points/day
Best Buy : 1) NS : 378.2 points/day ; 2) PS4 : 332.9 points/day ; 3) XBO : 137.9 points/day
Gamestop : 1) PS4 : 153.3 points/day ; 2) NS : 151.7 points/day ; 3) XBO : 3.1 points/day



Overall : 1) NS : 419.7 points/day (1.00) ; 2) PS4 : 320.9 points/day (0.76) ; 3) XBO : 43.7 points/day (0.10)

Since Everybody stayed on their position throughout, I think it will be correct. Only thing could be that the ratio is thrown off a bit by the leftover of the holiday boost early January.

And is it just me, or are the PS4's points at the end of the month disappointing? I mean, they got KH3 and RE2, and yet it almost didn't go up at all - unlike the Switch for no apparent reason.



Symbios63 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Hardware revision shares:

PS4:

Slim: 78+8+170+32=288 50.8%
Pro: 37+180+62=279 49.2%

Xbox One:

S: 102+17=119 43.1%
X: 115+42=157 56.9%

Slim+S 407/Pro+X 436 48.3%/51.7%

And X is in front again. Pro and Slim are almost selling the same amount now.

If you take into account retailer weighting this is what you get :

 

PS4 :

Slim : (78+8)*0.8 + 170*0.2 + 32 = 68.8 + 34 + 32 = 134.8 (51.4%)

Pro : 37*0.8 + 180*0.2 + 62 = 29.6 + 36 + 62 = 127.6 (48.6%)

 

XBO :

S : 102*0.2 + 17 = 20.4 + 17 = 37.4 (54.4%)

X : (115+42)*0.2 = 31.4 (45.6%)

Ah yeah, forgot about the weighting. It's 80% Amazon, 20% BestBuy and 100% Gamestop, right? Will implement that into the next update



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02/05/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+4) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (+4) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 60 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 94 (-1) - 319.99$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 99 (R) - 225.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 41 + 7 = 134 points (+11) ; XBO : 2 points (+2) ; NS : 150 + 92 = 242 points (+14)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (+4) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 19 (+1) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 23 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 59 (-12) - 499.99$

PS4 : 190 + 175 = 365 points (+15) ; XBO : 120 + 106 = 226 points (-33) ; NS : 200 + 170 = 370 points (-10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 35 (-2)
2 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 84 (R)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 115 (+13)
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 116 (-27)
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 127 (+14)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 167 (-33)

PS4 : 43 + 37 = 80 points (-12) ; XBO : 68 point (+51) ; NS : 125 + 43 = 168 points (+1)

Overall :

1 - NS : 435.6 points (+11.2) ; Month Average : 408.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 260.2 points (-0.2) ; Month Average : 260.6 points/day ; 0.64 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 149.2 points (+59.8) ; Month Average : 116.4 points/day ; 0.28 (+0.03)



Hardware revision shares:

PS4:

Slim: (86+7)*0.8+190*02+37=149.4 57.4%
Pro: 41*08+175*0.2+43=110.8 42.6%

Xbox One:

S: 2*0.8+ 106*0.2+0=22.8 21.8%
X: 120*0.2+68=82 78.2%

Slim+S 172.2/Pro+X 192.2 43.3%/52.7%

Fallout 76 bundle on Gamestop totally changes the balance in the end



02/06/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 37 (-4) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 62 (-2) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 70 (+29) - 219.00$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 100 (-6) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 + 39 + 1 = 118 points (-16) ; XBO : 31 points (+29) ; NS : 150 + 98 = 248 points (+6)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (+3) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 13 (+6) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 50 (-27) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 185 = 375 points (+10) ; XBO : 150 + 52 = 202 points (-24) ; NS : 210 + 180 = 390 points (+20)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 31 (+4)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 51 (+33)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 88 (+27)
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 98 (+29)
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 105 (+11)
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 176 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 54 + 48 = 102 points (+22) ; XBO : 100 + 13 = 113 point (+45) ; NS : 135 + 64 = 199 points (+31)

Overall :

1 - NS : 475.4 points (+39.8) ; Month Average : 425.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 271.4 points (+11.2) ; Month Average : 263.3 points/day ; 0.62 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 231.7 points (+82.5) ; Month Average : 145.2 points/day ; 0.34 (+0.06)



02/07/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 35 (+2) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 60 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 66 (+4) - 219.00$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 100 (R) - 233.00$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 100 (-6) - 319.99$

PS4 : 82 + 41 = 123 points (+5) ; XBO : 35 + 1 = 36 points (+5) ; NS : 150 + 98 = 248 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 4 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 5 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 10 (+3) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 48 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 185 = 375 points (-) ; XBO : 165 + 56 = 221 points (+19) ; NS : 210 + 195 = 405 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 36 (-5)
2 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 D - 49 (+2)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 76 (+12)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 91 (+7)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 P - 99 (+77)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 101 (+4)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 60 + 50 = 110 points (+8) ; XBO : 102 + 52 = 154 point (+41) ; NS : 125 + 76 = 201 points (+2)

Overall :

1 - NS : 480.4 points (+5.0) ; Month Average : 436.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 283.4 points (+12.0) ; Month Average : 267.3 points/day ; 0.61 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 295.1 points (+63.4) ; Month Average : 175.2 points/day ; 0.40 (+0.06)



Switch seems to be doing well for February so far.



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