In progress NPD predicting tool

duduspace1

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duduspace1 on 07 December 2018

Symbios63 said:

Intrinsic said:
So this tool has the NS coming first and PS4 coming second right?

First time I have come into this thread.

Out of curiosity....... how many times has this tool been wrong?

For beginning of December yes, the tool has NS first and PS4 second.

Read the OP to have an idea of the tool accuracy but you have keep in mind that it was dead wrong for October (not yet in the OP) and will (very likely) be for November as well.

I will try to adjust the formula for holyday season in the future.

I am more confident for December.

I still feel that if the Switch takes November, there would be no need to tweak it as it would mean it was just a problem with the time period the Smash and Pokemon Pre-Orders counted for.

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 07 December 2018

12/07/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 4 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 45 (-5) - 299.98$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 48 (+1) - 239.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 57 (+6) - 249.00$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 64 (+15) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 66 (+4) - 399.00$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 97 (-3) - 399.99$

PS4 : 62 + 37 = 99 points (+1) ; XBO : 56 + 44 = 100 points (-27) ; NS : 195 + 102 = 297 points (-16)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 14 (-6) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 21 (-5) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 44 (-6) - 399.99$
7 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 67 (+11) - 249.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 69 (-3) - 249.99$
9 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 73 (-13) - 449.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 145 = 345 points (-30) ; XBO : 110 + 64 + 34 + 32 + 28 = 268 points (-42) ; NS : 205 + 165 = 370 points (-5)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 9 (+1)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 37 (+2)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 41 (+7)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 124 (+9)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 138 (+34)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 156 (+31)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 199 (-36)

PS4 : 120 + 110 + 32 = 262 points (+28) ; XBO : 23 points (+15) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 39 = 439 points (+5)

Overall :

1 - NS : 750.6 points (-8.8) ; Month Average : 741.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 410.2 points (+22.8) ; Month Average : 409.7 points/day ; 0.55 (-)
3 - XBO : 203.6 points (-19.5) ; Month Average : 178.2 points/day ; 0.24 (+0.01)

Bofferbrauer2

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Bofferbrauer2 on 07 December 2018

Can't wait to see first reports about how Smash and Switch are selling - and how November went

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 08 December 2018

12/08/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 38 (+7) - 299.98$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 45 (+12) - 249.00$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 53 (-5) - 240.08$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 62 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 76 + 39 = 115 points (+16) ; XBO : 62 + 48 = 110 points (+10) ; NS : 200 + 120 = 320 points (+23)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 7 (-4) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 15 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 23 (-2) - 249.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 52 (-8) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 77 (-10) - 249.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 85 (-12) - 449.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 87 (-18) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 140 = 320 points (-25) ; XBO : 106 + 49 + 24 + 16 + 14 = 209 points (-59) ; NS : 205 + 175 = 380 points (+10)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 9 (-)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 40 (-3)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 46 (-5)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 107 (+17)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 126 (+12)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 156 (-)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 115 + 106 + 38 = 259 points (-3) ; XBO : 23 points (-) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 47 = 447 points (+8)

Overall :

1 - NS : 779.0 points (+28.4) ; Month Average : 746.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 415.0 points (+4.8) ; Month Average : 410.5 points/day ; 0.55 (-)
3 - XBO : 198.6 points (-5.0) ; Month Average : 181.1 points/day ; 0.24 (-)

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 09 December 2018

12/09/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 18 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 35 (+3) - 319.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 47 (-2) - 249.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 60 (-7) - 242.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 65 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 36 = 118 points (+3) ; XBO : 58 + 41 = 99 points (-11) ; NS : 200 + 125 = 325 points (+5)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 4 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 5 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 12 (+11) - 249.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 21 (-6) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 65 (-13) - 399.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 84 (+1) - 449.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 91 (-14) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 87 (-18) - 249.99$

PS4 : 195 + 110 = 305 points (-15) ; XBO : 155 + 36 + 17 + 10 = 218 points (+9) ; NS : 205 + 190 = 395 points (+15)

- Gamestop :

1 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 47 (-7)
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 52 (-6)
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 98 (+9)
4 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 130 (+26)
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 161 (-35)

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 2 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 9 (-)

PS4 : 104 + 100 + 20 = 224 points (-35) ; XBO : 36 points (+13) ; NS : 54 points (-393)

Overall :

1 - NS : 393.0 points (-386.0) ; Month Average : 702.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 379.4 points (-35.6) ; Month Average : 406.6 points/day ; 0.58 (+0.03)
3 - XBO : 206.4 points (+7.8) ; Month Average : 184.3 points/day ; 0.26 (+0.02)

I guess Gamestop gift card deal on NS came to an end...

nero

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nero on 09 December 2018

What’s with the sudden drop? 😱

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abronn627 on 09 December 2018

nero said:
What’s with the sudden drop? 😱

Less skus at gamestop, doesn’t mean the Switch is selling less since the points are influenced by the number of skus. Massive drops or spikes should be expected during holidays.

jason1637

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jason1637 on 09 December 2018

Benji said Smash is selling about 2x more than Pokemon. 3m NPD opening would be crazy.

PortisheadBiscuit

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PortisheadBiscuit on 09 December 2018

nero said:
What’s with the sudden drop? 😱

Gamestop's promo for the $25 gift card with Switch purchase ended so they removed the sku from the website.

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 10 December 2018

12/10/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (+4) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 39 (-4) - 323.95$
4 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 42 (+23) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 55 (+5) - 238.90$
6 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 69 (-22) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 68 = 142 points (+24) ; XBO : 46 + 32 = 78 points (-21) ; NS : 200 + 145 = 345 points (+20)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 3 (+9) - 249.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 4 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 21 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 48 (+17) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 75 (+9) - 449.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 81 (+10) - 249.99$
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 99 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 110 + 2 = 307 points (+2) ; XBO : 200 + 56 + 26 + 20 = 302 points (+84) ; NS : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-5)

- Gamestop :

1 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 42 (+56)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 46 (+1)
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 52 (-)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 100 (+30)
5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 118 (R)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 181 (+20)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 + 100 + 10 = 216 points (-8) ; XBO : 52 points (+16) ; NS : 110 + 42 = 152 points (+98)

Overall :

1 - NS : 506.0 points (+113.0) ; Month Average : 680.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 391.0 points (+11.6) ; Month Average : 404.8 points/day ; 0.59 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 227.2 points (+20.8) ; Month Average : 189.0 points/day ; 0.28 (+0.02)

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