Quantcast
In progress NPD predicting tool

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

quickrick said:
MasonADC said:

Looking at previous years, it is not like sales just tank in the first two weeks of November. 

last year switch was killing ps4/xb online till black friday, and it was destroyed in sales. anyway i don't put too much stock in this tool, i'll just wait for NPD. 

Based on what?



Around the Network
quickrick said:
MasonADC said:

Looking at previous years, it is not like sales just tank in the first two weeks of November. 

last year switch was killing ps4/xb online till black friday, and it was destroyed in sales. anyway i don't put too much stock in this tool, i'll just wait for NPD. 

The tool hasn't been drastically wrong yet, so I don't know why you wouldn't trust it. We'll see how October looks before we should lose trust in the tool



Mbolibombo said:
quickrick said:

last year switch was killing ps4/xb online till black friday, and it was destroyed in sales. anyway i don't put too much stock in this tool, i'll just wait for NPD. 

Based on what?

I remember the Amazon thread from last year seemed to suggest a Switch victory, but when the NPD came around PS4 won.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8633395 - 21st before blackfriday, shows Switch leading month on amazon.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8638443 - 25th day after blackfriday, shows ps4 winning on amazon.

Last edited by Barkley - on 09 November 2018

Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Barkley said:
Mbolibombo said:

Based on what?

I remember the Amazon thread from last year seemed to suggest a Switch victory, but when the NPD came around PS4 won.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8633395 - 21st before blackfriday, shows Switch leading month on amazon.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8638443 - 25th day after blackfriday, shows ps4 winning on amazon.

Yeah obviously, but it's been well established by now that Amazon is not soleley a good predictor of anything. Thus I assume Rick has some sort of other source that Switch was killing PS4 and Xbox for the entire month prior to BF.  



Mbolibombo said:
Barkley said:

I remember the Amazon thread from last year seemed to suggest a Switch victory, but when the NPD came around PS4 won.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8633395 - 21st before blackfriday, shows Switch leading month on amazon.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8638443 - 25th day after blackfriday, shows ps4 winning on amazon.

Yeah obviously, but it's been well established by now that Amazon is not soleley a good predictor of anything. Thus I assume Rick has some sort of other source that Switch was killing PS4 and Xbox for the entire month prior to BF.  

It wasn't well established back then, November 2017 was one of the few months that Amazon did not agree to NPD.  And even the best this site has didn't have another source, why would you think Rick would have one?



Around the Network
Train wreck said:
Mbolibombo said:

Yeah obviously, but it's been well established by now that Amazon is not soleley a good predictor of anything. Thus I assume Rick has some sort of other source that Switch was killing PS4 and Xbox for the entire month prior to BF.  

It wasn't well established back then, November 2017 was one of the few months that Amazon did not agree to NPD.  And even the best this site has didn't have another source, why would you think Rick would have one?

What I am saying is we dont know if the Switch was crushing PS4 or Xbox at the time. What people thought then, means nothing when making a statement today with the knowledge we have now.

Clearly Rick does not have any other source. I just wanted to see him say he was using Amazon which would be amusing.



We have to let the tool do its job and amend AFTER the results come in to work out what the normality of it is. Otherwise the baseline will never be right.

To me the tool is showing precisely what happened last year, switch was ahead and then Black Friday comes along and PS4/Xbox will sell more (we assume).. So the only thing the tool may not get right is the actual gap, i.e the total number of sales might be lower and the gap doesn't make much difference at this point.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Mbolibombo said:
Train wreck said:

It wasn't well established back then, November 2017 was one of the few months that Amazon did not agree to NPD.  And even the best this site has didn't have another source, why would you think Rick would have one?

What I am saying is we dont know if the Switch was crushing PS4 or Xbox at the time. What people thought then, means nothing when making a statement today with the knowledge we have now.

Clearly Rick does not have any other source. I just wanted to see him say he was using Amazon which would be amusing.

I don't get what you are trying to say.  Using Amazon last year to say Switch was selling more before BF is no different than looking at this tool now and saying switch is selling more before black friday.  



Mbolibombo said:
nero said:
XBO an PS4 the same and the switch is entering holidays mode. Can the swich surpass the 1m+ sold this month?

Last years November Switch sold 800k With no significant releases in the month outside of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 late in the period and Odyssey in the month before.

This year there's Pokemon and the upcoming Smash which surely should drive hardware at a higer rate. Not to mention all the bundles availible around BF. I would be hugely surprised if it did not reach 1M this November.

Yeah, the $299 Switch + Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can entice some new consumers (especially since Kart 8 Deluxe has already passed it's original's LT sales so there's more potential for new consumers).



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Mar1217 said:
I know he isn't there but I should say it :

"This trajectory from Xbone is litteraly a cliff !"

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

Well that 10 day ban was followed by a 2 week ban so he won't be back until Black Friday.

Barkley said:
Chorlin said:
Im a little lost. Can someone tell me who will win october npd according to this tool?
Thanks.

Switch > XBO > PS4 according to this tool.

Ratios - Switch 1, XBO 0.74, PS4 0.66.

I just can't see it working out like that for October. When do we get results? 

MasonADC said:
kenjab said:

It's still early in the month.  I bet most PS4/XB1 shoppers are waiting for the Black Friday deals, which are better for those consoles than Switch

Even then, being in first by three times the closer competitor is a really strong start. We also have October results to look forward too

Again I just can't see it. IMO PS4 will beat Switch for October and November.