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Prediction: Labo is going to flop

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Sales prediction of Labo (in millions)?

<1 17 13.49%
 
1 12 9.52%
 
2 22 17.46%
 
3 16 12.70%
 
4 5 3.97%
 
5 16 12.70%
 
6 2 1.59%
 
7 1 0.79%
 
8 1 0.79%
 
>8 34 26.98%
 
Total:126
quickrick said:
VGPolyglot said:

What do you consider to be a flop?

2-3 million.

OK, which games are a flop at 2-3 million? A new GTA selling 2-3 million would be certainlya flop, but that is the outlier. 2-3 million for something new, something that needs crafting skills (which isn't that common among gamers), something pretty expensive as it contains physical stuff - this is not  bad.



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my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

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Slownenberg said:
quickrick said:

2-3 million.

That's crazy! This isn't a major Nintendo franchise game. It's a kids toy peripheral. 2-3 million would be a great success for Labo! Switch's user base is people in their 20s and 30s. Some of those people have kids. Labo is aimed at getting those parents to buy Labo so their kids can play with the Switch too. Labo isn't going for a Mario/Zelda/MarioKart/Smash audience. I don't know in what world you think selling 2-3 million kid's toy peripherals would be a flop!

 

Mnementh said:
quickrick said:

2-3 million.

OK, which games are a flop at 2-3 million? A new GTA selling 2-3 million would be certainlya flop, but that is the outlier. 2-3 million for something new, something that needs crafting skills (which isn't that common among gamers), something pretty expensive as it contains physical stuff - this is not  bad.

 I think nintendo invested a lot into this project and looking for a kinect like hit.



It really depends on the games and how its marketed. The potential is there and now Nintendo "just" need to make it the next big hit.



How is 2 million sales a flop?



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quickrick said:
Mnementh said:

OK, which games are a flop at 2-3 million? A new GTA selling 2-3 million would be certainlya flop, but that is the outlier. 2-3 million for something new, something that needs crafting skills (which isn't that common among gamers), something pretty expensive as it contains physical stuff - this is not  bad.

 I think nintendo invested a lot into this project and looking for a kinect like hit.

I doubt it. It probably had a small core team of about 10-20 people for one or two years, prototyping ideas and a big push with more personnel at the end to create a polished product. I think development was cheaper than for the new Kirby or Yoshi.

That's the point here: ideas are pretty cheap, if you have the right ideas. Development of assets like models and textures takes a lot of manual work.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Now 2-3 millions is a flop.... especially for labo? People are getting ridiculous



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I think it will be big.. and sell Switch to alot of people that dont normally buys videogame consoles.. a bit like wii-fit
So my prediction..
5 million 2018
20 million 2019
And more than 50 million lifetime
(I expect atleast 5 diffenrent sku's.. and the "garage" part to becomme bigger)



Every time I think something from Nintendo will flop, it's ends up surprising me. Most recent example was Splatoon. So I'm going to say that this will be a success :P



quickrick said:
VGPolyglot said:

What do you consider to be a flop?

2-3 million.

2-3 million would be amazing, I'd say less than 1 million is a flop.