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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Labo is going to flop

 

Sales prediction of Labo (in millions)?

<1 17 13.49%
 
1 12 9.52%
 
2 22 17.46%
 
3 16 12.70%
 
4 5 3.97%
 
5 16 12.70%
 
6 2 1.59%
 
7 1 0.79%
 
8 1 0.79%
 
>8 34 26.98%
 
Total:126

Don't see why people are putting numbers to this. It's a commercial success if they make a profit and its just some cardboard and a low capacity games cartridge. It could cost $4 to produce and sell to wholesale at $30 or more even if the sell through was only 60% of what was made it could still be hugely profitable with the final stock being discounted. Cardboard is incredibly cheap to produce. It probably goes into profit allowing for R&D after maybe a tenth of a million have sold and anything beyond that is seriously profitable. If its a runaway success then big money for Nintendo but also what some would consider a huge failure may still be profitable for Nintendo.

For the same price of Labo with some crayons here in the UK you can buy a generic 10" octacore android tablet. The manufacturing cost is going to be next to nothing.



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Green098 said:
Soundwave said:

 

Labo isn't gonna touch Brain Training or Nintendogs type numbers. If it's lucky it will get to Nintendo Land (non bundled) range in Japan. 

I don't know why people would compare Labo to them in the first place. Brain Training and Nintendogs had a target audience of 8 to 80, whereas Labo is aimed at like 4-12 at best (with the exception of those who are kids at heart/build it with their kid). 1-2-Switch was in the "Brain Training and Nintendogs" demographic and it did great thanks to that huge target audience.

Even that is a stretch for 1,2 Switch ... it's doing about the same as Nintendo Land did in Japan (unbundled) ... which wasn't some huge success for Nintendo.

These concepts are only doing a tiny fraction of the business things like Nintendogs and Brain Training did, they're not system sellers. 



Soundwave said:
Green098 said:

I don't know why people would compare Labo to them in the first place. Brain Training and Nintendogs had a target audience of 8 to 80, whereas Labo is aimed at like 4-12 at best (with the exception of those who are kids at heart/build it with their kid). 1-2-Switch was in the "Brain Training and Nintendogs" demographic and it did great thanks to that huge target audience.

Even that is a stretch for 1,2 Switch ... it's doing about the same as Nintendo Land did in Japan (unbundled) ... which wasn't some huge success for Nintendo.

These concepts are only doing a tiny fraction of the business things like Nintendogs and Brain Training did, they're not system sellers. 

The thing is... NintendoLand was bundled and ended up doing 5m or something like that. That's not Nintendogs or Brain Trainning, but it's still decent. Now think how much it would have sold if Wii U was a moderate success ( something like 50m consoles sold lifetime). It would easily cross the 10m mark, which would be great. What I mean is... what prevented NintendoLand from being bigger was Wii U itself. I mean, it's the 6th best selling title of the system, and it was very close from being 5th.

I agree 1-2-Switch will end up selling about 5m or something, and that's certainly not amazing, but I think it's a great result for something that probably was cheap to make and will return a lot of money. That's why I think they should keep doing these experiments. You never know when you'll find the next big hit, and in the worst case scenario those games will end up paying themselves due to being cheap to make. It's probably a win-win situation for Nintendo.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Labo is approaching 200k sold in Japan, that in itself is quite solid.



It should be over 500k by now



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Soundwave said:
TheMisterManGuy said:
People obsessing over Labo being a "failure" don't realize that toys have different sales traction than games do. They rely more on holiday sales than launch day performance. Not to mention, many of Nintendo's other "expanded audience titles" like Nintendogs and Brain Age also didn't do huge numbers out of the gate, but they had crazy long legs that contributed to their success. Labo will likely be the same, especially once Nintendo gets more kits out in time for the holidays.

 

Labo isn't gonna touch Brain Training or Nintendogs type numbers. If it's lucky it will get to Nintendo Land (non bundled) range in Japan. 

Labo isn't a conventional game series. It's a line of construction toys. Much like Lego or K'nex. The huge sales numbers will come from the multiple kits that get released overtime as well as Holiday pushes. That's really what people are underestimating here. 



Soundwave said:
Green098 said:

I don't know why people would compare Labo to them in the first place. Brain Training and Nintendogs had a target audience of 8 to 80, whereas Labo is aimed at like 4-12 at best (with the exception of those who are kids at heart/build it with their kid). 1-2-Switch was in the "Brain Training and Nintendogs" demographic and it did great thanks to that huge target audience.

Even that is a stretch for 1,2 Switch ... it's doing about the same as Nintendo Land did in Japan (unbundled) ... which wasn't some huge success for Nintendo.

These concepts are only doing a tiny fraction of the business things like Nintendogs and Brain Training did, they're not system sellers. 

Well I'm talking more about worldwide. I mean 2.29 million in less than a year for such a bare bones experience compared to Nintendogs and Brain Training. Out selling much bigger budget titles like ARMS and Xenoblade 2. So far that puts in the Top 50 selling DS games and it's sales are only going to continue. I think 3/4 million for this unbundled for being a full priced game at launch at least shows a spark of what the "Wii" line and etc games managed to do.



TheMisterManGuy said:

Labo isn't a conventional game series. It's a line of construction toys. Much like Lego or K'nex. The huge sales numbers will come from the multiple kits that get released overtime as well as Holiday pushes. That's really what people are underestimating here. 

It is and it might. Not saying it definitely will.

At the same time Labo doesn't seem to be to expensive, developmentcost as well as production. It's likely a commercial success right now. It might be positive PR for Nintendo outside the core gamer crowd.

What people think is a flop seems a bit weird today.



So... we have two weeks of Labo-sales now on VGC and take a look. As the prediction wildly vary and the definitions of success even more, it can bolster the point of view of probably nearly everyone, but it will be fun to look at it anyway.

The variety kit is after two weeks just shy of 298K, the robot kit did 103K. Here the sales curve:

As I see it, the variety kit has a good chance to break the million at the holidays, the robot kit will end the year probably above 300K.

What do you think about that?



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Mnementh said:

So... we have two weeks of Labo-sales now on VGC and take a look. As the prediction wildly vary and the definitions of success even more, it can bolster the point of view of probably nearly everyone, but it will be fun to look at it anyway.

The variety kit is after two weeks just shy of 298K, the robot kit did 103K. Here the sales curve:

As I see it, the variety kit has a good chance to break the million at the holidays, the robot kit will end the year probably above 300K.

What do you think about that?

A couple more weeks and the Variete Kit is now just shy of 450k and selling steadily. Robot kit however isn't doing so hot, probably around 140k. In other words, almost 600k combined by now, which ain't too shabby yet.