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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 24 February 2018

duduspace1 on 16 March 2018
Lawlight said:
duduspace1 said:

Amazon US is certainly representative of sales, its just not in absolute terms........and there is a technique to interpreting the chart. There is a reason why Amazon US is followed and statistically correct in predicting the NPD winner 85% of the time.

Note that my point isnt that the Switch is selling more than the PS4, it is simply that based on Amazon trends, the current ratio of PS4 to Switch cannot be correct and that I expect to see a correction in the future.

How would you know what the ratios are based on amazon rankings? Just based on the ranks, the Switch should be way ahead of the PS4 in sales in January and yet it was not. And keep in mind that Amazon does not represent the whole market.

I know because I have followed the trend on Amazon all through Q1 and compared it to last years. The only way Amazon can end up not correlating with other sales outlets from this year to last year is if all PS4 buyers suddenly move off Amazon and started buying elsewhere while all the Switch buyers moved in the opposite direction, a notion that is extremely unlikely.

From what I can see in the sales trend, no way is the PS4 outselling the Switch 2:1 in Q1 2018 and I'm willing to do a bet on that if you are so inclined.



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duduspace1 on 16 March 2018
zorg1000 said:
duduspace1 said:

Amazon US is certainly representative of sales, its just not in absolute terms........and there is a technique to interpreting the chart. There is a reason why Amazon US is followed and statistically correct in predicting the NPD winner 85% of the time.

Note that my point isnt that the Switch is selling more than the PS4, it is simply that based on Amazon trends, the current ratio of PS4 to Switch cannot be correct and that I expect to see a correction in the future.

Which countries did you look at?

Nintendo has done well in the bigger and richer countries like France, Germany, UK so they may be competitve there but historically they havent done nearly as well in the smaller or poorer countries.

 

This site has the big 3 European countries making up about 65% of European Switch sales while they only make up about 50% for PS4.

I was referring to France, Germany, UK and Italy.  I expect those 4 to be quite capable of influencing the sales for Europe significantly. I have to say though that Italy is an outlier of sorts, the trend is not as pronounced in Italy as it is in France, Germany and Spain. The UK is somewhere in between.



loy310 on 19 March 2018

Adjustments made? PS4 at 300k



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 19 March 2018

PS4 sold about 300k this week ?



Barkley on 19 March 2018
trunkswd said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
PS4 sold about 300k this week ?

US figures were adjusted for all of February to reflect the leaked NPD figures.

Shame we can't see the current figures for the other weeks in February. xD