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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 10): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - March 05-11, 2018

Megiddo said:

I decided last week I'd start keeping track of the prospective PS4 and Switch Japanese sales estimates that I keep seeing repeated in these threads. The estimates are 2 million PS4 sales in Japan for 2018 and 4 million Switch sales in Japan for 2018.

Current Week: 10 (Please correct me if I'm wrong here as it will change the results slightly)

 

  YTD Units Till Estimate Average Weekly Needed
PS4 647,945 1,352,055 32,191
Switch 535,375 3,464,625 82,491

I'll be keeping an update of this each week to see how each week's sales will impact the ability to reach the sales estimates from people in this thread.

Good idea, what is your prediction?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Splat2 vs DQ11

Splatoon2: 2.106mil
DQ(ps4): 1.424mil
DQ(3ds): 1.823mil
DQ(Com): 3.247mil


Splat2 losing by...

DQ: Left... 1141k



Dragon Ball Xenoverse 2 legs are impressive in Japan.



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zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

 

Good idea, what is your prediction?

Hard to say honestly. Would probably go with 2.8 million PS4 and 3.6 million Switch. Switch is hard to peg since it has had basically no big releases thus far in the year yet still sells very well. PS4 is hard to peg as well. Things could very easily fluctuate back and forth. Nintendo could have a huge second half of 2018 planned as well which would really boost them way over both estimates. That's why I thought it'd be neat to try and keep track.



Hiku said:

What caused PS4 Pro's and PS4 Slim to sell the same?

Switch seems to be on a pretty good baseline considering current releases.
Curious how it will look next week with Kirby's release. Not sure what kind of impact a game like that will have.

There are reports that PS4 is sold out especially the slim.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20180307-00000058-zdn_mkt-bus_all



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PwerlvlAmy said:
splatoon 2 will never die

Sure it will, as soon as Splatoon 3 is released 



Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

Good idea, what is your prediction?

Hard to say honestly. Would probably go with 2.8 million PS4 and 3.6 million Switch. Switch is hard to peg since it has had basically no big releases thus far in the year yet still sells very well. PS4 is hard to peg as well. Things could very easily fluctuate back and forth. Nintendo could have a huge second half of 2018 planned as well which would really boost them way over both estimates. That's why I thought it'd be neat to try and keep track.

You really think PS4 being up ~55% YOY eems realistic?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

ktay95 said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
splatoon 2 will never die

Sure it will, as soon as Splatoon 3 is released 

If the Octo Expansion sells well, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon though. :P

 

Switch doing better, and while it isn't impossible to find I think they are still selling through their entire shipments for now. Kirby+Splatoon 2 bundle will be interesting next week. Those Nintendo legs are still very sexy.

The Monster Hunter behemoth is finally starting to drop off, but the slim is possibly still supply constrained. PS overall is lower than I anticipated for this week.



ktay95 said:
PwerlvlAmy said:
splatoon 2 will never die

Sure it will, as soon as Splatoon 3 is released 

I thought the same thing with stuff like Mario Kart 7 but that damn game stayed in the top 30 for years xD



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zorg1000 said:

You really think PS4 being up ~55% YOY eems realistic?

I do actually.  Monster Hunter is just that big in Japan. It's causing shortages 4+ years into the console's life when there hadn't been PS4 shortages in Japan for a long, long time. I expect a good pull for Spider-Man as well, assuming that it's actually a good game unlike many of the previous Spider-Man games. 

But yeah, I expect 2018 to be much better for the PS4 than 2017 was. Time will tell of course though.