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Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch Overtake the Xbox One in the USA?

zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:
Despite the tension between zorg and fatslob, it's a good back and forth between you 2. I think zorg is making a better case though. I don't disagree with anything he's saying.

Every good debate has to have some tension, gotta make it fun for the audience

I maintain that fatslob is acting.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Yes, it will. Pokemon will make sure that it happens.



RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Every good debate has to have some tension, gotta make it fun for the audience

I maintain that fatslob is acting.

Im sure you'r right, i have a hard time believing anybody could oversimplify so many things and be serious.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

fatslob-:O said:
flashfire926 said:

First off, that saying doesnt work all the time. Just look at the Dreamcast. It had an exceptional library for a console that was on sale for one and a half year. Jet Set Radio, Shenmue, Sonic Adventure, NBA 2k, soul calibur, crazy taxi, and more.

Super Smash Bros 4 is widely regarded as better than Brawl and the original. DKCTF  was on par with its predecessors well, the backlash to that game only came because people were pissed retro made another donkey kong instead of doing something else. Captain toad is regarded as an underrated gem. As much as I dont like super mario 3d world, it still got a 93 METACRITIC. Shows that critics and audience alike still liked the game.

As for animal crossing, the decision to make one for the 3DS instead of Wii U was right because Wild World outsold City folk and the original like 3:1.

Zelda had a game come out in 2011, so it was obvious that a 2012 release for next zelda was unreasonable.

But you are right to an extent. Animal crossing amiibo festival, star fox zero, mario party 10, wii party U, mario tennis ultra smash, paper mario color splash, nintendo land and more were underwhelming.

But it cant be argued that the main cause of the failure of WiiU was the console itself. Terrible tablet gimmick controller, teriible and non-existent marketing, terrible name, the list goes on and on.

And sony's victory over microsoft was mostly cause of the drm blunder and higher price of the xbox one. The excusives were just a supporting cause.

Dreamcast had nearly nothing, it's library was anything but "exceptional" aside from the reviewer/critic perspective ... (if the customers weren't convinced then that's all that mattered) 

SSB4 was about equal as far as critics go compared with SSB Brawl but that stops right there since there were much more who was convinced of the quality of the latter ... 

DKCTF obviously wasn't as good as it's predecessor, Captain Toad deserves it's rating as is and SM3DW just wasn't as good as SMG so all of these things factored into WII U's suffering hardware sales and when you don't convince your customers that's exactly what will happen ... 

WII U's hardware sales was more than warranted given the shit effort that Nintendo went through with it. Nintendo making SSB for WII U and not for Animal Crossing despite the fact that both would've sold more on their handheld counterparts was an amateur's mistakes but then you ignore the biggest elephant in the room which is the absence of the Wii franchise ... (Nobody let down the WII U down other than Nintendo themselves!)

The always online DRM was fixed before launch and the price was fixed shorty thereafter but did their sales ever equalize ? Nope, the only explanation for that is because Sony somehow convinced it's customer base that it had a better library than the competitor and that's despite Microsoft's more aggressive deals ... 

This is getting off-topic anyways so let's leave it at that ... 

Well, I was gonna leave this, but seeing all this carry on between you and zorg, I'll pitch in too.

Just look anywhere in the internet, SSB4 is commonly regarded as better than Brawl. There are more people who like SSB4 better, than vice-versa.

And DKCTF is as good as its predecessor. Again, the backlash was because people didnt want retro to make another donkey kong.

Wii franchise was there. But just look at how Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, and wii sports club sold compared to their predecessors.

And no, Animal Crossing sells better on handheld, BY A WIDE MARGIN. NOT EVEN CLOSE. This is a fact that cant be disputed.

No the Dreamcast failed primarily because the shit sega pulled off with 32X/CD/Saturn and all. They lost everyone's trust, and the PS2 was on the horizon, so people just waited for that.

And their is a huge fanbase for 3D World. Its at 5.75 million copies shipped, second only behind MK8. It isnt higher only because no one bought the Wii U.

For the bolded, it was already too late. People already had a bad taste in their mouth's, and were done with the Xbox. Word of mouth goes a long way, and their are still many people under the impression that the One cant read used discs, and/or despise xbox now. People' s friends were more liklier to have PS4's, and as a result they were more likely to get a PS4. A snowball effect took place.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

zorg1000 said:

Again you are oversimplifying. You cant limit success/failure to one single thing, there are always multiple factors at play and if you cant understand that than its hopeless to even discuss with you.

I never said PS1 had special hardware features, im talking about hardware in general which includes things like features, design & specs.

Im not changing goalposts, you asked how PS1 ended up being so popular despite a slow start and i explained that none of the big console manufacturers had mainstream success right off the bat with their first successful console.

Youre arguing semantics, fine its not billions, its hundreds of millions they spend. The point is that every large company regardless of industry spends a shitload of money to market/advertise their products/services. If it wasnt an important factor than they wouldnt do it, simple as that.

I absolutely can since the other factors you mention have very little or not correlation at all and you haven't shown many cases where marketing/advertising mattered much either ... 

Hundreds of millions ? LOL, maybe that's only true at the lower end and they certainly don't constantly do it over the lifetime duration of the systems either aside from advertising the hardware again for price cuts or holiday deals ... 

An effective advertising campaign means so little to console manufacturers like Sony or Microsoft to the point that it hardly effects their daily cost of operation ... (that's how much marketing/advertising truly is "worth" to them)

If marketing was truly important then the biggest console manufacturers wouldn't have a noncommittal attitude towards it and they would be dedicating a far larger cost of operations towards it too ... 

flashfire926 said:

Well, I was gonna leave this, but seeing all this carry on between you and zorg, I'll pitch in too.

Just look anywhere in the internet, SSB4 is commonly regarded as better than Brawl. There are more people who like SSB4 better, than vice-versa.

And DKCTF is as good as its predecessor. Again, the backlash was because people didnt want retro to make another donkey kong.

Wii franchise was there. But just look at how Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, and wii sports club sold compared to their predecessors.

And no, Animal Crossing sells better on handheld, BY A WIDE MARGIN. NOT EVEN CLOSE. This is a fact that cant be disputed.

No the Dreamcast failed primarily because the shit sega pulled off with 32X/CD/Saturn and all. They lost everyone's trust, and the PS2 was on the horizon, so people just waited for that.

And their is a huge fanbase for 3D World. Its at 5.75 million copies shipped, second only behind MK8. It isnt higher only because no one bought the Wii U.

For the bolded, it was already too late. People already had a bad taste in their mouth's, and were done with the Xbox. Word of mouth goes a long way, and their are still many people under the impression that the One cant read used discs, and/or despise xbox now. People' s friends were more liklier to have PS4's, and as a result they were more likely to get a PS4. A snowball effect took place.

Internet and especially forums/community boards are not a reliable gauge for trends as it pretty much leaves out the general consumer interest ... 

If very few other high profile sequels get backlash in the industry then it's a problem with DKCTF ... 

You also missed Wii Play but it didn't help that the entries on the WII U had it's most interesting functionalities locked behind an external peripheral not included with the system and they didn't have much in terms of compelling content ... 

Of course it's easy for Animal Crossing to sell more on handhelds when you don't make a canon entry for consoles like Nintendo does for the WII U. Animal Crossing: City Folk didn't even sell all that bad on the WII even though it was outsold by the DS entry of somewhat under 3X factor. Instead Nintendo chooses half-ass WII U's library by not making games like that for it and frankly Nintendo deserves as much distress as they can get now if they think they can keep up by gambling on these low effort projects such ports to reap high rewards then must be delusional which is probably why third parties or Sony don't see Nintendo as their equals since they can't match in terms of software output ... 

A new console generation is a clean slate or a new platform even in the same generation as Nintendo shows with the Switch. Dreamcast failed not because of trust but because Sega couldn't convince third parties to make games for it ... (that's why Dreamcast is left with a gaping hole in it's library) 

Too late ? It was less than 6 months and console wars are marathons, not 100m dash as much as I fucking hate that saying even though the fate of every platform is determined in just a year ... 

I don't know why you guys have to find so many excuses for WII U's failure other than it's most obvious reason ... 



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fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

Again you are oversimplifying. You cant limit success/failure to one single thing, there are always multiple factors at play and if you cant understand that than its hopeless to even discuss with you.

I never said PS1 had special hardware features, im talking about hardware in general which includes things like features, design & specs.

Im not changing goalposts, you asked how PS1 ended up being so popular despite a slow start and i explained that none of the big console manufacturers had mainstream success right off the bat with their first successful console.

Youre arguing semantics, fine its not billions, its hundreds of millions they spend. The point is that every large company regardless of industry spends a shitload of money to market/advertise their products/services. If it wasnt an important factor than they wouldnt do it, simple as that.

I absolutely can since the other factors you mention have very little or not correlation at all and you haven't shown many cases where marketing/advertising mattered much either ... 

Hundreds of millions ? LOL, maybe that's only true at the lower end and they certainly don't constantly do it over the lifetime duration of the systems either aside from advertising the hardware again for price cuts or holiday deals ... 

An effective advertising campaign means so little to console manufacturers like Sony or Microsoft to the point that it hardly effects their daily cost of operation ... (that's how much marketing/advertising truly is "worth" to them)

If marketing was truly important then the biggest console manufacturers wouldn't have a noncommittal attitude towards it and they would be dedicating a far larger cost of operations towards it too ... 

flashfire926 said:

Well, I was gonna leave this, but seeing all this carry on between you and zorg, I'll pitch in too.

Just look anywhere in the internet, SSB4 is commonly regarded as better than Brawl. There are more people who like SSB4 better, than vice-versa.

And DKCTF is as good as its predecessor. Again, the backlash was because people didnt want retro to make another donkey kong.

Wii franchise was there. But just look at how Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, and wii sports club sold compared to their predecessors.

And no, Animal Crossing sells better on handheld, BY A WIDE MARGIN. NOT EVEN CLOSE. This is a fact that cant be disputed.

No the Dreamcast failed primarily because the shit sega pulled off with 32X/CD/Saturn and all. They lost everyone's trust, and the PS2 was on the horizon, so people just waited for that.

And their is a huge fanbase for 3D World. Its at 5.75 million copies shipped, second only behind MK8. It isnt higher only because no one bought the Wii U.

For the bolded, it was already too late. People already had a bad taste in their mouth's, and were done with the Xbox. Word of mouth goes a long way, and their are still many people under the impression that the One cant read used discs, and/or despise xbox now. People' s friends were more liklier to have PS4's, and as a result they were more likely to get a PS4. A snowball effect took place.

Internet and especially forums/community boards are not a reliable gauge for trends as it pretty much leaves out the general consumer interest ... 

If very few other high profile sequels get backlash in the industry then it's a problem with DKCTF ... 

You also missed Wii Play but it didn't help that the entries on the WII U had it's most interesting functionalities locked behind an external peripheral not included with the system and they didn't have much in terms of compelling content ... 

Of course it's easy for Animal Crossing to sell more on handhelds when you don't make a canon entry for consoles like Nintendo does for the WII U. Animal Crossing: City Folk didn't even sell all that bad on the WII even though it was outsold by the DS entry of somewhat under 3X factor. Instead Nintendo chooses half-ass WII U's library by not making games like that for it and frankly Nintendo deserves as much distress as they can get now if they think they can keep up by gambling on these low effort projects such ports to reap high rewards then must be delusional which is probably why third parties or Sony don't see Nintendo as their equals since they can't match in terms of software output ... 

A new console generation is a clean slate or a new platform even in the same generation as Nintendo shows with the Switch. Dreamcast failed not because of trust but because Sega couldn't convince third parties to make games for it ... (that's why Dreamcast is left with a gaping hole in it's library) 

Too late ? It was less than 6 months and console wars are marathons, not 100m dash as much as I fucking hate that saying even though the fate of every platform is determined in just a year ... 

I don't know why you guys have to find so many excuses for WII U's failure other than it's most obvious reason ... 

If that holds true, than how do you know people like smash brawl better than 4? Or that people like DKCR over DKCTF?

Wait, what? AC had two main entries on console. The original game was on Gamecube, with City Folk on Wii. 

And if wii fit and party couldnt save wiiU, than I doubt Wii Play would either. And what peripheral are you talking about?

I am making no excuses for the WiiU's failure. I already said its SHITTY console. Yes, it is a clean slate, but with that name and marketing campaign, it made it look like wii add-on tablet to the mass audience.

These low effort ports are warranted, because these games had their sales potential cut by the miniscule wiiU base. Many of these games deserve a second life that isnt on a fisher price toy. Third parties are getting there. Ubisoft with MarioXrabbids (switch exclusive), skylanders and just dance, activision with skylanders and crash, ea with fifa, fe, take two with LA noire and nba 2k18. Square Enix is coming out with an exclusive Switch game this July. Koei Tecmo just did Fire Emblem Warriors. Diablo 3 is all but confirmed. Bethesda seems to be all in too. Mega Man 11 from Capcom. Sega with Sonic Mania and Forces. The third party situation is the best it has ever been since the gamecube days.

Now for the first half of 2018, when it comes to brand-new games, that includes mario tennis, kirby, sushi striker, and project octopath traveler. It might be a bit lackluster, but c'mon. Lets not pretend that they didnt give us two GOAT games last year. They deserve a somewhat of a break, at least.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

The Switch is the fastest selling console in the US (and in the world) right now, I don't know why it couldn't reach Xbox One sales. The Switch is about to sell more than 6 millions during it's first year while the Xbox One never sold more than 5 millions in a year. I think the Xbox One will get to the 30 millions in 2020 while the Switch will probably around 25 millions by then.

Last edited by SKMBlake - on 11 March 2018

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flashfire926 said:

If that holds true, than how do you know people like smash brawl better than 4? Or that people like DKCR over DKCTF?

Wait, what? AC had two main entries on console. The original game was on Gamecube, with City Folk on Wii. 

And if wii fit and party couldnt save wiiU, than I doubt Wii Play would either. And what peripheral are you talking about?

I am making no excuses for the WiiU's failure. I already said its SHITTY console. Yes, it is a clean slate, but with that name and marketing campaign, it made it look like wii add-on tablet to the mass audience.

These low effort ports are warranted, because these games had their sales potential cut by the miniscule wiiU base. Many of these games deserve a second life that isnt on a fisher price toy. Third parties are getting there. Ubisoft with MarioXrabbids (switch exclusive), skylanders and just dance, activision with skylanders and crash, ea with fifa, fe, take two with LA noire and nba 2k18. Square Enix is coming out with an exclusive Switch game this July. Koei Tecmo just did Fire Emblem Warriors. Diablo 3 is all but confirmed. Bethesda seems to be all in too. Mega Man 11 from Capcom. Sega with Sonic Mania and Forces. The third party situation is the best it has ever been since the gamecube days.

Now for the first half of 2018, when it comes to brand-new games, that includes mario tennis, kirby, sushi striker, and project octopath traveler. It might be a bit lackluster, but c'mon. Lets not pretend that they didnt give us two GOAT games last year. They deserve a somewhat of a break, at least.

Just sales alone would tell us that there were more people who liked SSB Brawl over SSB4 and is generally representative of consumer reception ... 

Animal Crossing was a small game on the GC before it's growth hit stride in 7th gen but that's not an excuse for Nintendo to skip AC for WII U when it sold OVER 4M units on the Wii. Nintendo made a bad decision by skipping that franchise ... 

We can all argue about sales potential with other platforms but with exclusive software it's all about convincing the consumers to go past the barrier of entry to access that content and it was solely supposed to be the job of 1st party WII U software but now Nintendo are going to attempt the same thing again by porting the entire WII U library to the Switch this year ... 

New games are supposed to be the main system pushers and it should not solely be about old games like what the Switch is this year. Nobody is denying the great backlog that the Switch has built up last year but that doesn't mean they shouldn't put up a similar effort for this year to deliver a just as competitive quality software output ...



fatslob-:O said:
flashfire926 said:

If that holds true, than how do you know people like smash brawl better than 4? Or that people like DKCR over DKCTF?

Wait, what? AC had two main entries on console. The original game was on Gamecube, with City Folk on Wii. 

And if wii fit and party couldnt save wiiU, than I doubt Wii Play would either. And what peripheral are you talking about?

I am making no excuses for the WiiU's failure. I already said its SHITTY console. Yes, it is a clean slate, but with that name and marketing campaign, it made it look like wii add-on tablet to the mass audience.

These low effort ports are warranted, because these games had their sales potential cut by the miniscule wiiU base. Many of these games deserve a second life that isnt on a fisher price toy. Third parties are getting there. Ubisoft with MarioXrabbids (switch exclusive), skylanders and just dance, activision with skylanders and crash, ea with fifa, fe, take two with LA noire and nba 2k18. Square Enix is coming out with an exclusive Switch game this July. Koei Tecmo just did Fire Emblem Warriors. Diablo 3 is all but confirmed. Bethesda seems to be all in too. Mega Man 11 from Capcom. Sega with Sonic Mania and Forces. The third party situation is the best it has ever been since the gamecube days.

Now for the first half of 2018, when it comes to brand-new games, that includes mario tennis, kirby, sushi striker, and project octopath traveler. It might be a bit lackluster, but c'mon. Lets not pretend that they didnt give us two GOAT games last year. They deserve a somewhat of a break, at least.

Just sales alone would tell us that there were more people who liked SSB Brawl over SSB4 and is generally representative of consumer reception ... 

Animal Crossing was a small game on the GC before it's growth hit stride in 7th gen but that's not an excuse for Nintendo to skip AC for WII U when it sold OVER 4M units on the Wii. Nintendo made a bad decision by skipping that franchise ... 

We can all argue about sales potential with other platforms but with exclusive software it's all about convincing the consumers to go past the barrier of entry to access that content and it was solely supposed to be the job of 1st party WII U software but now Nintendo are going to attempt the same thing again by porting the entire WII U library to the Switch this year ... 

New games are supposed to be the main system pushers and it should not solely be about old games like what the Switch is this year. Nobody is denying the great backlog that the Switch has built up last year but that doesn't mean they shouldn't put up a similar effort for this year to deliver a just as competitive quality software output ...

but SSB4 sold more.......while on a smaller userbase too...

if youre talking about just the wiiU version, its literally impossible to outsell brawl. It would need to have a 100% attach rate. The reason why? Bad marketing, bad name, and entirely bad concept of the shitpile known as WiiU.

and lets say that analogy is true...is Resident evil 6 better than 7? is mariokart wii better than mk8? Is pokemon red/blue still the best pokemon? The answer to all those questions is NO. Sales isnt indicative of a game's quality a lot of the times.

In an ideal world, yes there should be a barrage of brand new games every year. But developers aren't robots. It takes time to make game. There are only so many developers at Nintendo. And after a big game almost every month last year, they need time to make more games. We cant a breath of the wild every year. This is just stuff to hold us over until the next barrage comes.

Still, we are still getting at least 8 brand new titles this year: Kirby Star Allies, Mario Tennis Aces, Super Smash Bros., Sushi Skriker: The way of sushido, Project Octopath Traveler, Yoshi, Fire Emblem, No more heroes: travis strikes back.  There probably will be more in the second half of the year.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.