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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 9): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - February 26 - March 04, 2018

Megiddo said:

But the MHW boost has not run its course. That's why there is a wide-scale shortage for the PS4. And that's why MHW is still in the top 3 for Amazon JP. Its legs are going to be enormous.

Then you have games like Spider-Man (Homecoming grossed 25 mil in Japan) and Kingdom Hearts 3 which are going to sell some systems.

Thats why i said essentially, the boost isnt completely over but its nearing the end.

Spider Man is not going to be huge in Japan, i dont care how much the movie grossed there, just look at the sales of Spider Man games over history, it has never done over 50k there.

Kingdom Hearts is big but its no bigger than Final Fantasy  or Dragon Quest which PS4 got in Q4 2016 & Q3 2017 so dont expect KH to give it a bigger boost than those games gave it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Breath of the Wild's legs are insane. Not the PS4 falling below 30k again, mess, are there still shortages?



PAOerfulone said:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Japanese Sales Tracker (Single SKUs): UPDATE!!

1. (NES) The Legend of Zelda - 1,690,000
2. (NES) Zelda II: The Adventure of Link - 1,610,000
3. (N64) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 1,450,000
4. (SNES) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 1,115,000
5. (DS) The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 950,000
6. (NS) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild* - 896,455 (+12,675)
7. (GC) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 890,000

*Without Digital

The physical Switch version of Breath of the Wild has surpassed Wind Waker to move into 6th place on the All-Time Single SKUs Legend of Zelda Japan Sales List.

And now, Phantom Hourglass is next!

6th on sku only (excluding digital) is a funny disadvantage here. If you include digital (around. 80k-100k) and add wiiu 140k (minimum) that make botw in the ballpark of 1.1mil sold. By wnd of the quarter we will see BotW over 1.2mil ship+digital and its not slowing down. 

 

So for the remainder of the year (9 months) it needs to ship+digital 500k more to be the best selling zelda by years end.... Possible? Maybe... At worse if it avg 5k-7k a week for apr-dec itll be at 1.4mil-1.5mil

 

Yeah im going with zelda botw doing 2mil in Japan lifetime. Its doing 10k+ a week, the biggest surprise leg game thats single player



tbone51 said:
PAOerfulone said:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Japanese Sales Tracker (Single SKUs): UPDATE!!

1. (NES) The Legend of Zelda - 1,690,000
2. (NES) Zelda II: The Adventure of Link - 1,610,000
3. (N64) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 1,450,000
4. (SNES) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 1,115,000
5. (DS) The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 950,000
6. (NS) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild* - 896,455 (+12,675)
7. (GC) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 890,000

*Without Digital

The physical Switch version of Breath of the Wild has surpassed Wind Waker to move into 6th place on the All-Time Single SKUs Legend of Zelda Japan Sales List.

And now, Phantom Hourglass is next!

6th on sku only (excluding digital) is a funny disadvantage here. If you include digital (around. 80k-100k) and add wiiu 140k (minimum) that make botw in the ballpark of 1.1mil sold. By wnd of the quarter we will see BotW over 1.2mil ship+digital and its not slowing down. 

 

So for the remainder of the year (9 months) it needs to ship+digital 500k more to be the best selling zelda by years end.... Possible? Maybe... At worse if it avg 5k-7k a week for apr-dec itll be at 1.4mil-1.5mil

 

Yeah im going with zelda botw doing 2mil in Japan lifetime. Its doing 10k+ a week, the biggest surprise leg game thats single player

I know that. I'm just having a little fun watching a chase. Trying to catch the rabbit is more entertaining than actually catching it, I find in this case.
Plus, it'd be THAT much more incredible if the Switch version was able to do it by itself, just to showcase how much Breath of the Wild has truly brought a breath of fresh air (pun completely intended) to the series.

And yes, I also believe that, combining digital and the Wii U versions, that it will be the first Zelda game in history to do 2 million lifetime in Japan.



Let me address the elephant in the room. Japan might well be the only region where the Xbox One X is outselling the Xbox One S. Also, according to both Kakaku and Amazon, it is the highest rated console. I think M$ is turning the corner here.



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PAOerfulone said:
tbone51 said:

6th on sku only (excluding digital) is a funny disadvantage here. If you include digital (around. 80k-100k) and add wiiu 140k (minimum) that make botw in the ballpark of 1.1mil sold. By wnd of the quarter we will see BotW over 1.2mil ship+digital and its not slowing down. 

 

So for the remainder of the year (9 months) it needs to ship+digital 500k more to be the best selling zelda by years end.... Possible? Maybe... At worse if it avg 5k-7k a week for apr-dec itll be at 1.4mil-1.5mil

 

Yeah im going with zelda botw doing 2mil in Japan lifetime. Its doing 10k+ a week, the biggest surprise leg game thats single player

I know that. I'm just having a little fun watching a chase. Trying to catch the rabbit is more entertaining than actually catching it, I find in this case.
Plus, it'd be THAT much more incredible if the Switch version was able to do it by itself, just to showcase how much Breath of the Wild has truly brought a breath of fresh air (pun completely intended) to the series.

And yes, I also believe that, combining digital and the Wii U versions, that it will be the first Zelda game in history to do 2 million lifetime in Japan.

Sorry didnt mean it that way. Im saying it in a good way, your comparison is fine. 

 

My dq11 vs splat2 has splat2 in a disadvantage as well. As we dont kno exact dq11 sales but im putting a number every week. Splat2 is more closer than what i posted



No worries. :) 

As for your DQXI vs. Splatoon 2 comparison. I don't really think that the 3DS + PS4 versions can grow beyond this, which is why I believe that Splatoon 2 will eventually catch and eclipse them.

I would say that Splatoon 2 will eventually outsell Dragon Quest XI in general, but the Switch version of DQXI is real wild card and throws a monkey wrench into making predictions like that one.



PAOerfulone said:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Japanese Sales Tracker (Single SKUs): UPDATE!!

1. (NES) The Legend of Zelda - 1,690,000
2. (NES) Zelda II: The Adventure of Link - 1,610,000
3. (N64) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 1,450,000
4. (SNES) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 1,115,000
5. (DS) The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 950,000
6. (NS) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild* - 896,455 (+12,675)
7. (GC) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 890,000

*Without Digital

The physical Switch version of Breath of the Wild has surpassed Wind Waker to move into 6th place on the All-Time Single SKUs Legend of Zelda Japan Sales List.

And now, Phantom Hourglass is next!

Hmm, at current pace Phantom hourglass is five weeks and Link to the Past eleven weeks away. So this summer should both be overtaken. The others are bigger chunks to swallow, we'll have to see how the momentum develops from here.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Farsala said:
Switch down massively YoY, what a flop.

At least sales increased WoW though.

Switch couldn't beat it's launch week? See, Switch is on a downward spiral, Nintendoom confirmed!



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
PAOerfulone said:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Japanese Sales Tracker (Single SKUs): UPDATE!!

1. (NES) The Legend of Zelda - 1,690,000
2. (NES) Zelda II: The Adventure of Link - 1,610,000
3. (N64) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 1,450,000
4. (SNES) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 1,115,000
5. (DS) The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 950,000
6. (NS) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild* - 896,455 (+12,675)
7. (GC) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 890,000

*Without Digital

The physical Switch version of Breath of the Wild has surpassed Wind Waker to move into 6th place on the All-Time Single SKUs Legend of Zelda Japan Sales List.

And now, Phantom Hourglass is next!

Hmm, at current pace Phantom hourglass is five weeks and Link to the Past eleven weeks away. So this summer should both be overtaken. The others are bigger chunks to swallow, we'll have to see how the momentum develops from here.

This is true. The top 3 are going to be quite the mountain to climb, but if Breath of the Wild can maintain that 12k baseline average for the remaining 43 weeks of the year, that would put it at around 1.41 million, and it'll be knocking on Ocarina of Time's door.