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February 2018 NPD predictions thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2018 NPD predictions thread

which console will sell the most

Switch, by a lot 7 11.11%
 
Switch, barely 31 49.21%
 
PS4, by a lot 10 15.87%
 
PS4, barely 7 11.11%
 
XB1, by a lot 3 4.76%
 
XB1, barely 5 7.94%
 
Total:63
Welfare said:
quickrick said:

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Thanks for the info. Really appreciate your math for NPD estimates. 

Last edited by quickrick - on 01 March 2018

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Welfare said:
quickrick said:

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Very interesting. Why do you have the Switch increase by such a low percentage, as opposed to the 3DS?



Lawlight said:
Welfare said:

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Very interesting. Why do you have the Switch increase by such a low percentage, as opposed to the 3DS?

After a weaker January than I was expecting, I'm being a bit reserved with February. I do think Switch will manage to take March so I'm predicting momentum will be stronger for Switch going into Spring.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

My prediction:

PS4: 350k
XBox: 305k
Switch: 275k



PS4 wins in $ again eh.

Switch: 340k
XB1: 320k
PS4: 290k



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Ok, let's see if I'm getting better at this.

NS - 330K

ps4 - 320K

X1 -  300K



aren't we in 2018 lol



quickrick said:
aren't we in 2018 lol

Lol this thread has been open for over 2 weeks and nobody caught that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:
aren't we in 2018 lol

Lol this thread has been open for over 2 weeks and nobody caught that.

lol i just noticed as well :P



Switch 350k > PS4 325k > XB1 305K



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