February 2018 NPD predictions thread

zorg1000

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zorg1000 on 28 February 2018

Last months prediction

NSW-280k

PS4-260k

XBO-190k

I was pretty spot on for NSW & PS4, just underestimated XBO.

This month ill go with

NSW-370k

XBO-350k

PS4-330k

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 28 February 2018

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jason1637

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jason1637 on 28 February 2018

NSW- 300k
PS4- 290k
XBO- 280k

Bofferbrauer2

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Bofferbrauer2 on 28 February 2018

Switch: 280k
PS4: 250k
XBO: 235k

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/

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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 28 February 2018

What ? I thought SOTC released in January.

Welfare

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Welfare on 28 February 2018

[PS4] 316K
[XB1] 299K
[NSW] 286K

Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

xMetroid

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xMetroid on 28 February 2018

Switch : 340k
PS4 : 300k
One : 280k (discount)

Last edited by xMetroid - on 28 February 2018

quickrick

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quickrick on 28 February 2018

Welfare said:
[PS4] 316K
[XB1] 299K
[NSW] 286K

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

My prediction

[PS4] 289K
[XB1] 299K
[NSW] 280K

Last edited by quickrick - on 05 March 2018

Welfare

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Welfare on 01 March 2018

quickrick said:

Welfare said:
[PS4] 316K
[XB1] 299K
[NSW] 286K

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Last edited by Welfare - on 01 March 2018

Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

quickrick

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quickrick on 01 March 2018

Welfare said:

quickrick said:

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Thanks for the info. Really appreciate your math for NPD estimates.

Last edited by quickrick - on 01 March 2018

Lawlight

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Lawlight on 01 March 2018

Welfare said:

quickrick said:

are you the same welfare from REtera/neogaf? and if so why do you think the numbers will be that low.

Yes I am.

The last time we had a 5 week January, the week over week improvements in February were nothing special.

Xbox 360 January 2013: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February 2013: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up +34%

PS3 January 2013: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February 2013: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up +63%

3DS January 2013: 145K / 5 = 29,000
3DS February 2013: 189K / 4 = 47,250
Weekly average up +63%

Wii January 2013: 100K / 5 = 20,000
Wii February 2013: 99K / 4 = 24,750
Weekly average up +24%

Right now my predictions show a ~+60% increase in weekly average for Xbox One, ~+55% for PS4, and ~+30% for Switch so those would be alright outcomes. If all 3 consoles go above 300K I would be pleasantly shocked.

Very interesting. Why do you have the Switch increase by such a low percentage, as opposed to the 3DS?


which console will sell the most
Switch, by a lot	7	11.11%
Switch, barely	31	49.21%
PS4, by a lot	10	15.87%
PS4, barely	7	11.11%
XB1, by a lot	3	4.76%
XB1, barely	5	7.94%
Total:	63

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Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2018 NPD predictions thread

which console will sell the most

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