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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 8): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - February 19-25, 2018

Green098 on 01 March 2018
Megiddo said:
Very odd to see people predicting 2mil PS4 sold in Japan for 2018 when Media Crate, the very source of this thread, has the PS4 just under 600k sold after 2 months.

Unless a Dragon Quest 12 or Pokemon game releases on PS4 this year which isn't going to happen, I can't see anything that's going to push PS4 more than what Monster Hunter did for it. Around 2 million seems like a safe bet.

I still see PS4 doing better than it did last year though.

Last edited by Green098 - on 01 March 2018

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Megiddo on 01 March 2018

Is Kingdom Hearts 3 not a big property in Japan? I'm not into it myself so I haven't kept up with any news about it, but I know Frozen did gangbusters in Japan and if KH3 features Frozen stuff and Sony advertises the hell out of it, focusing on Frozen content, then I can see it selling some systems.



NoCtiS_NoX on 01 March 2018

Famitsu hardware up

Model Sales Last week Last year YTD Last YTD LTD
Switch 41,294 40,655   441,035   3,848,193
PS4 36,193 48,391 44,158 594,179 452,488 6,451,042.00
3DS 12,621 13,075 24,740 164,505 470,801 23,903,049
Vita 5,666 5,274 11,069 43,984 155,372 5,687,610
Xbo 428 267 525 4,594 3,215 92,186
WiiU 172 132 626 605 12,031 3,302,160 

 

Model Sales Last week Last year YTD Last YTD LTD
PS4 Slim 30,186 39,928 37,472 478,617 384,720 5,820,536
PS4 Pro 6,007 8,463 6,686 115,562 67,768 630,506
2DSLL 7,635 8,036   108,379   695,930
n2DS 755 636 5,362 7,245 135,725 569,935
n3DS 4,231 4,403 19,378 48,881 335,076 5,716,907
XboS 225 51 506 737 2,514 14,024
XBoX 203 216   3,857   6,160


Green098 on 01 March 2018
Megiddo said:

Is Kingdom Hearts 3 not a big property in Japan? I'm not into it myself so I haven't kept up with any news about it, but I know Frozen did gangbusters in Japan and if KH3 features Frozen stuff and Sony advertises the hell out of it, focusing on Frozen content, then I can see it selling some systems.

It will and should but it's just on the line of Monster Hunter is all which is a 3-4 million seller in Japan with full priced expansions a year later on top of that whereas Kingdom hearts would be 1 million seller in Japan. I did forget about Kingdom hearts 3 but it still shouldn't push as many consoles as monster hunter/enough to push a bump up to 3 million PS4's in Japan this year.



NoCtiS_NoX on 01 March 2018
Green098 said:
Megiddo said:
Very odd to see people predicting 2mil PS4 sold in Japan for 2018 when Media Crate, the very source of this thread, has the PS4 just under 600k sold after 2 months.

Unless a Dragon Quest 12 or Pokemon game releases on PS4 this year which isn't going to happen, I can't see anything that's going to push PS4 more than what Monster Hunter did for it. Around 2 million seems like a safe bet.

I still see PS4 doing better than it did last year though.

Granblue fantasy could be big if it will be release this year. Kingdom Hearts III will also be a system seller for it if it will be release this year. 

Megiddo said:

Is Kingdom Hearts 3 not a big property in Japan? I'm not into it myself so I haven't kept up with any news about it, but I know Frozen did gangbusters in Japan and if KH3 features Frozen stuff and Sony advertises the hell out of it, focusing on Frozen content, then I can see it selling some systems.

It is but not DQ or MH level. 

Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep 727,938 PSP

Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance 311,688 3DS

 Last known numbers from MC I can find.

Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 Remix FW 62,770 last known numbers
102,281		 PS4






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takoyaki7 on 01 March 2018

年　Year

値下　Price cut

週　　　Week



tbone51 on 01 March 2018

People are arguing on Era about BotW WW sales, can someone correct them on the MC thread? WiiU version is 1.5mil ship+digital or sold. 8.2mil total

Says here from nintendo http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234553&page=1



zorg1000 on 01 March 2018
Pinkie_pie said:
I only mentioned Zelda and odyssey but there were Mario kart 8 deluxe, splatoon 2, xenoblade 2 and such. Smash, kirby and animal crossing ain't really better than last years titles. So even if they sort out the stock issue this year I can only see 4m max

From April 3-Nov 12, Switch sold an average of 50k each week, this period included medium-big releases like Mario Kart Deluxe,  Minecraft, ARMS, Splatoon 2, Monster Hunter XX, Mario Odyssey, Pokken DX, Fire Emblem Warriors & Xenoverse 2.

The last 7 weeks has seen an average of 43k with the only somewhat big game being Mario Rabbids.

 

If Switch can sell close to last years numbers without big games than its only logical to assume it will see a decent increase once big games release.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo on 01 March 2018
Pinkie_pie said:
Ps4 will be 25-30k until a big release. Switch 40k is really bad. At this rate it won't outsell the ps4 until year 2020 and that's when ps5 arrives

40k can be bad in any case, especially if we talking about sales without any new bigger release from start of year and still with some kind of stock problems.

 

Megiddo said: 
40k/week isn't near enough in Japan for Nintendo to come close to their goal of 20 mil next FY. Really hope things pick up in the next few months.

Like people already wrote, Switch had some 20-30k with huge stock problems last year and Switch sold 3.3m in Japan and Switch is shipped around 15m WW.

 

Megiddo said: 
zorg1000 said: 

They had a dozen weeks in the 20-30k range last year and will have 15m for the FY.

Right. And this fiscal year won't have a launch.  So take that away from the 15m and how much is left? How much more does Nintendo need to increase its sales? This ain't the time for Nintendo to be complacent.

This year they want have huge stock problems also, Switch this year with March sales will be above last year March sales that had launch. Switch needs to be shipped around 5m in FY 2018. in order that Nintendo meet target.

 

Intrinsic said: 
zorg1000 said: 

40k baseline with no major releases isnt amazing but its not really bad either and Switch will pass PS4 by Spring 2019.

How? will the PS4 just stop selling?

Is PS4 stop selling when Switch hit half of PS4 istallbase in Japan in just one year?

 

Pinkie_pie said: 
I only mentioned Zelda and odyssey but there were Mario kart 8 deluxe, splatoon 2, xenoblade 2 and such. Smash, kirby and animal crossing ain't really better than last years titles. So even if they sort out the stock issue this year I can only see 4m max

Well last year Switch had huge stock problems, so games like Smash Bros and Animal Crossing would easily push Switch this year over 4m, probably around 5m. 



SuperNova on 01 March 2018
zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

Right. And this fiscal year won't have a launch.  So take that away from the 15m and how much is left? How much more does Nintendo need to increase its sales? This ain't the time for Nintendo to be complacent.

Neither did the current fiscal year.

Nintendo is forcasting 15 million shipped from April 1, 2017-March 31, 2018. As of Dec 31, they were at 12.13 million so they need to ship 2.87 million this quarter to reach that which is about 220k/week.

 

Japan represents about 1/4 of Switch shipments at this point, so they need to ship a little over 700k to Japan this quarter. They have already sold ~450k with 5 weeks to go.

If it retains 40k/week it will be ~650k sold this quarter so right about 700k shipped is right.

 

No sign of them being complacent, they are right on track to reach their goals.

That calculation combined with the fact that the Switch is pulling consistent numbers week over week right now definitely points to it still being supply constrained. 

Nintendo is shipping 40k/week and those 40k are selling through. They might also be holding a small amount of stock back for Kirbys launch. Demand might not massivey outstrip supply anymore, especially without major releases, but Switch could at the very least sell 3-5k more each week imho.