I give Bayonetta 2 Boo's out of 5.

It's going to be difficult for the Switch to hit 20 million next fiscal year with a 40-50k weekly average in Japan. I believe that's roughly 2-2.5 million for a year in one of its strongest regions. Hope it has some big plans for the second half of 2018 to be able to reach such a bold goal.

Overall, not a very good week. Hardware seems to be down across most platforms. On the positive side, Monster Hunter seems to be performing nicely, but PS4 hardware took a bit more of a hit than I expected.

Bayonetta's combined sales of 21,226 is quite bad. Though not unexpected based on its bad COMG run.

I am noticing Switch is now more in stock than out of stock on the online stores of Amazon, Yodobashi Camera, and BIC Camera. So I think without a new software release or holidays we are looking at a baseline of 35-45k right now.

Well yeah Switch will catch up again. Before something as big as MHW, Switch dominated weekly. It will happen again, but MHW is a monster right now, its kicking butt and taking names and giving PS4 a much needed boost in Japan. Sony needs to toss Capcom some cash and make sure MHW-2 is a reality

MHW and ps4 beast.

Right, but before that baseline was mainly only due to stock shortages. Now, it may just be the new normal.

And yes, big game releases will definitely help. That's what I was alluding to with my post. Nintendo needs some big game releases for 2018.

New software and non-winter holidays will drive hardware and software sales (like golden week) so using a flat weekly total is not ideal.

They will need new software to keep up momentum. Kirby is fairly popular in Japan (though certainly not like Mario or Pokemon), so it should help it in Q1. But of course they will need bigger titles for the rest of the year.

One issue with your analysis is that it does not include the bigger bumps that come from holidays.

Though I too remain skeptical that they will hit 20 million. If they do not introduce more mainstream titles, of which they still have plenty of options (Pokemon, 2D Mario, 2D Zelda, Smash, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, etc), and/or adjust pricing then I don't think they will maintain even their current momentum much less being able to expand it.

@Bayonetta comments: maybe Japan just doesn't like buying the same game over and over again?
Nice job Monster Hunter, also great legs on Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart.

Yeah, but I think it's also partly due to the lack of the Japanese Blockbusters like Pokémon or Fire Emblem plus those from third party developers who where hesitant at first. When these will be out and no stock issues holding the console back then I think it will make at least 80k weeks, if not 100k