That's really has nothing to do with what i said since i made no sales comparations lol, the point remain that Switch shipped 15 million in 2017 with stocks problems and at 300$/330€, withouth stock problems, Switch would have shipped more than 15 million, and future sales surely doesn't seem to drop because it still hasn't showed his true potential.

It seem that most people forget that the PS4 also had a lot of stock problems in launch year. Not just the poor switch...

The one who's actually going to hit it.

Nope, pretty much everybody agrees that smartphones/tablets were a huge factor in the decline of DS/PSP to 3DS/Vita.

DS was the go to device for low cost, simple casual titles but those have now moved onto smart devices.

PSP was by far the best portable multimedia device when it released but smart device are now superior.

With that said, Nintendo/Sony also made a bunch of key mistakes that made the decline larger than it needed to be. 3DS+Vita will sell around ~90m, if they had better execution they could have possibly done ~120m or so.

Only the Wii, but it sell like crap after year 4.

what the people really underestimate is that Sony consoles sell for a long period of time, even the disaster of the PS3, whose never achieved the mighty $199, $149 or even the $99 price tag. But the PS4 will.

switch will be similar to the Wii, skyrocket sales for a couple of years and then vanished.

The reason why the decline is unlikely to continue is because the entire "casual" market basically disapeared in the DS to 3DS transition, you can see this in the software sales.

"Casual" games on DS like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Big Brain Academy, Cooking Mama, Clubhouse Games, Carnival Games, Art Academy, Imagine Series, Penguin Club, Style Savvy, along with dozens of games based on kids shows were all multimillion sellers.

How did these series perform on 3DS? With the exception of Nintendogs (which had an 80% decline but still sold a few million) all of them were either non existent, sold like shit or best case scenario carved out a small niche.

3DS did not sell on the strength of these expanded audience "casual" titles. Look at the list of multimillion 3DS titles and it consists entirely of Nintendo's traditional IP (Pokemon, Mario, Animal Crossing, Smash, Zelda) along with a few big Japanese titles (Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Yokai Watch).

The majority of Nintendo's traditional IP on 3DS saw little to no decline from DS, some even grew. 2D Mario is the only one that had a massive decline.

Based on essentially all "casual" titles disapearing and most "core" titles remaining stable in the DS to 3DS decline than its easy to conclude that damage is done and smart devices will have little affect on handhelds going forward.

This thread isnt talking about lifetime sales, its about fastest to a certain milestone.

But PS3 did officially reach $199 late in its life.

In the first year PS4
- had stock issues
- no differentiating software like the massive titles in Zelda/Splatoon/Mario
- no portability feature that is clearly creating demand for the Switch
- launched at $400 ($100 more than Switch)

Yet first year sales are comparable to Switch, of course with Switch selling more. Every year gets better for PS4, not just in sales but in all areas, which has led to the sales PS4 has garnered. PS4 has PROVEN itself as a monster economy for the gaming crowd whereas Switch has been a monster in sales/critique/software for less than a year and Nintendo fans are surprised when people choose PS4 to be the fastest to 100M?

It's pretty obvious PS4 is the safest bet when you don't narrow your perspective to a single year. Not to take anything away from Switch here because for all we know Switch could end up selling 100M faster than PS4 by continuing to appeal to their dual market. There are sooo many more things to come for Nintendo but they must work for Nintendo really well.

I think PS4. 

I see the switch selling as well as the 3DS. Its taken the 3ds about 7yrs to get to 70M. And i don't even think the Switch will sell the way handhelds sell and it doesn't have Wii level of buzz and penetration (has nothing to do with rate of sales but rather sales demographic penetration.... in context, seniors homes bought wiis). So somewhere in between.

Does Not help that by the Switches 3rd year or so the industry will be talking about the PS5/XB2 which I feel will dampen whatever momentum it has gathered by that point.

no its not. Look at the 3ds.