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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 vs Switch: Launch aligned, who hits 100 million first?

 

which will reach 100m faster?

PS4 94 70.68%
 
Switch 39 29.32%
 
Total:133
zorg1000 on 20 February 2018
mZuzek said:
zorg1000 said:

This is a bit baffling.

Its tracking on par with 3DS which had an $80 price cut to $170 after 5 months while Switch is still at $300 with more expensive software & accessories.

3DS is not at 72m and growing. 3DS level sales really should be the minimum, not the max.

Stop deluding yourself, the Switch is obviously not even going to outsell the Wii U. There's no way a 7th gen console priced at $300 could compete with the mighty PS4 Pro and Xbox One X! You're all getting carried away by this launch season, but after Zelda and Mario, Nintendo's got no cards left, the system is doomed.

Sorry, i forgot price cuts, revisions and big hits like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, 2D Mario & Smash Bros dont push hardware........silly me



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Ryng on 20 February 2018
PDF said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Oh my... This thread will be gold in a few years.

As was many WiiU prediction threads.  Got heat then from people who thought I was way too low.

Too bad we are now one year in the Switch life, and is not like this matter anyway considering i predicted the SAME numbers it did in 2017 (~15m shipped), but anyway: things now should be clear, but looks like they aren't.

 

And yes, saying you would be surprised if Switch outsell 3DS mean you still have no realized how Switch is selling.



flashfire926 on 20 February 2018
PDF said:
zorg1000 said:

This is a bit baffling.

Its tracking on par with 3DS which had an $80 price cut to $170 after 5 months while Switch is still at $300 with more expensive software & accessories.

3DS is not at 72m and growing. 3DS level sales really should be the minimum, not the max.

https://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/3ds-outselling-ds-in-aligned-hardwre-sales-in-nort-29230177/
The 3DS was doing as well as the DS two years in but that didn't mean it was going to do DS sales.

https://eshopstation.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/nintendo-3ds-sales-performance-matches-that-of-the-nintendo-ds-and-gba/

 

I dont think anyone expected 3DS to outsell the DS. Like, ever.

It only tracked ahead for a while because DS didnt really get into beast mode until DS lite in 2006.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

zorg1000 on 20 February 2018
PDF said:
zorg1000 said:

This is a bit baffling.

Its tracking on par with 3DS which had an $80 price cut to $170 after 5 months while Switch is still at $300 with more expensive software & accessories.

3DS is not at 72m and growing. 3DS level sales really should be the minimum, not the max.

https://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/3ds-outselling-ds-in-aligned-hardwre-sales-in-nort-29230177/
The 3DS was doing as well as the DS two years in but that didn't mean it was going to do DS sales.

https://eshopstation.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/nintendo-3ds-sales-performance-matches-that-of-the-nintendo-ds-and-gba/

The WiiU proved there is not much demand for a home Nintendo console.  The 3DS compared to the DS shows the continuing shrinking of the handheld market.  I see zero evidence of this trend reversing.  A strong launch does not mean a strong finish as we saw with the Wii quicker decline compared tot he PS3.

 

You ignored my main point, 3DS needed a massive price cut to obtain those year one sales while Switch was able to achieve them at nearly twice the price.

 

Wii U sales prove nothing other than it was an unappealing device and DS to 3DS drop shows that handhelds SHRANK. 3DS sales would not have been stable for the last 4 years if they were continuing to shrink at a significant rate.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng on 20 February 2018
PDF said:
zorg1000 said:

This is a bit baffling.

Its tracking on par with 3DS which had an $80 price cut to $170 after 5 months while Switch is still at $300 with more expensive software & accessories.

3DS is not at 72m and growing. 3DS level sales really should be the minimum, not the max.

https://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/3ds-outselling-ds-in-aligned-hardwre-sales-in-nort-29230177/
The 3DS was doing as well as the DS two years in but that didn't mean it was going to do DS sales.

https://eshopstation.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/nintendo-3ds-sales-performance-matches-that-of-the-nintendo-ds-and-gba/

The WiiU proved there is not much demand for a home Nintendo console.  The 3DS compared to the DS shows the continuing shrinking of the handheld market.  I see zero evidence of this trend reversing.  A strong launch does not mean a strong finish as we saw with the Wii quicker decline compared tot he PS3.

 

You see no evidence that Switch "launch" was massive worse than what it could have been when it had stocks problems for literally all 2017 and cost more than any Nintendo consoles the first year? ( Even Wii U was at ~300$ after 1 year)

 

You just ignore facts:

Switch cost ~300$ ( actually more in some country, like Europe which is ~330€ )

At that price, Nintendo had stocks problem for all 2017, which mean the 2017 numbers, aka ~15m , were less than the actual demand.

 

First Nintendo still has to sell Switch at ~300/330 to all people who want a Switch at this price, and looks like there is still much to go, then they can even drop the price, at 250$, and will be still bigger than any others Nintendo console.

Oh, did i even mention Pokemon and all the line up?



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xl-klaudkil on 20 February 2018
mZuzek said:
But seriously, I'm not entirely sure yet that the Switch will hit 100m. However I do get a feeling that if it does, it'll do it faster than the PS4. Nintendo consoles sell much faster, that's just how it always was and it's especially true for handhelds, and of course the Switch is doing insane numbers right now. PS4 is still gonna take maybe a couple years to hit 100m (meaning 6 years total), whereas I can see the Switch doing it in 5.

That said, PS4 will sell more lifetime.

Nintendo consoles sell faster then sony's? Never heared that before.

 

I bet on ps4 btw.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

quickrick on 20 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
PDF said:

https://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/3ds-outselling-ds-in-aligned-hardwre-sales-in-nort-29230177/
The 3DS was doing as well as the DS two years in but that didn't mean it was going to do DS sales.

https://eshopstation.wordpress.com/2012/11/02/nintendo-3ds-sales-performance-matches-that-of-the-nintendo-ds-and-gba/

The WiiU proved there is not much demand for a home Nintendo console.  The 3DS compared to the DS shows the continuing shrinking of the handheld market.  I see zero evidence of this trend reversing.  A strong launch does not mean a strong finish as we saw with the Wii quicker decline compared tot he PS3.

 

You see no evidence that Switch "launch" was massive worse than what it could have been when it had stocks problems for literally all 2017 and cost more than any Nintendo consoles the first year? ( Even Wii U was at ~300$ after 1 year)

 

You just ignore facts:

Switch cost ~300$ ( actually more in some country, like Europe which is ~330€ )

At that price, Nintendo had stocks problem for all 2017, which mean the 2017 numbers, aka ~15m , were less than the actual demand.

 

First Nintendo still has to sell Switch at ~300/330 to all people who want a Switch at this price, and looks like there is still much to go, then they can even drop the price, at 250$, and will be still bigger than any others Nintendo console.

Oh, did i even mention Pokemon and all the line up?

yea but of course other consoles, being sold at launch, and missing the holiday boost doesn't count, but switch having shortages in slow months are a much bigger deal.



Ryng on 20 February 2018
quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

You see no evidence that Switch "launch" was massive worse than what it could have been when it had stocks problems for literally all 2017 and cost more than any Nintendo consoles the first year? ( Even Wii U was at ~300$ after 1 year)

 

You just ignore facts:

Switch cost ~300$ ( actually more in some country, like Europe which is ~330€ )

At that price, Nintendo had stocks problem for all 2017, which mean the 2017 numbers, aka ~15m , were less than the actual demand.

 

First Nintendo still has to sell Switch at ~300/330 to all people who want a Switch at this price, and looks like there is still much to go, then they can even drop the price, at 250$, and will be still bigger than any others Nintendo console.

Oh, did i even mention Pokemon and all the line up?

yea but of course other consoles, being sold at launch, and missing the holiday boost doesn't count, but switch having shortages in slow months are a much bigger deal.

That's really has nothing to do with what i said since i made no sales comparations lol, the point remain that Switch shipped 15 million in 2017 with stocks problems and at 300$/330€, withouth stock problems, Switch would have shipped more than 15 million, and future sales surely doesn't seem to drop because it still hasn't showed his true potential.



OTBWY on 20 February 2018

It always depends on the games. Could be another Pokemon Go like craze with the Switch Pokemon game. There's not telling, but I have a feeling that the year in which it is released, we are going to see massive numbers.



quickrick on 20 February 2018
PDF said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

You see no evidence that Switch "launch" was massive worse than what it could have been when it had stocks problems for literally all 2017 and cost more than any Nintendo consoles the first year? ( Even Wii U was at ~300$ after 1 year)

 

You just ignore facts:

Switch cost ~300$ ( actually more in some country, like Europe which is ~330€ )

At that price, Nintendo had stocks problem for all 2017, which mean the 2017 numbers, aka ~15m , were less than the actual demand.

 

First Nintendo still has to sell Switch at ~300/330 to all people who want a Switch at this price, and looks like there is still much to go, then they can even drop the price, at 250$, and will be still bigger than any others Nintendo console.

Oh, did i even mention Pokemon and all the line up?

Why did the 3DS not get to DS level of sales?  What has happened to mobile gaming market from nov 2004 to now?  We all know its the introduction of powerful smartphone and tablet devices.  Why would this trend reverse?

There is clearly a demand from early adopters that still want a Nintendo gaming device.  I think Nintendo has created an extra surge by combining their home console with their handheld but there is no reason to think that the audience of casual mobile buyers will grow.  If anything it will shrink as more start to use other devices.  I do not think it will shrink at the same rate that the DS to 3DS did.

After being on this site for over a decade, I have learned that launches do not always tell the full story.  If it did the PS3 would be dead and the Wii would have sold more than the PS2. The XB1 would still be outselling the 360 ect..   

they will give you the silly reason that it got a price, failing to realize that ds was still much cheaper in it's first year. so that it had nothing to do with why its didn't reach 100 million.