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Hypothetical: Nintendo 10 Year Plan 2017-2027

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It'll all boil down to whether or not Nintendo (and to a lesser extent third parties) decide to keep supporting it with games. At the end of the day, Switch will continue to live or die on the strength of its library - this is true whether in 2020 or 2025.

Of course, remodels, bundles, price drops, etc won't hurt either, but that's only secondary to the games.

I think if we look at the Gameboy and the DS, Nintendo's other successful handhelds, it seems very possible they can milk a 10 year lifespan out of the Switch. I certainly hope they can, as I've bought enough gaming hardware in the last 5-6 years!



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I would be genuinely surprised if Nintendo doesn’t release a Switch with improved graphical capabilities WELL before 2025. The great thing about mobile processors like the Tegra is that new, more powerful models can be released, and games can be made compatible across both platform, with older platforms slowly faced out in favor of new iterations. With PS4 Pro, XBoneX, and New 3DS all being things, I see no reason why we wouldn’t get an improved Switch with better graphical capabilities by 2021.



Look at how Nintendo’s portable line of consoles have gotten multiple SKUs and have been supported:

Game Boy
Game Boy Pocket
Game Boy Light
Game Boy Color

Game Boy Advance
Game Boy Advance SP
Game Boy Micro

DS
DS Lite
DSi
DSi XL

3DS
3DS XL
2DS
New 3DS
New 3DS XL
New 2DS XL

Comments from Nintendo indicate that they are leaning in the direction of more SKUs than usual.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/events/140130qa/02.html

Iwata said:
…In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently, we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform…

They also subtly commented on an upcoming new version of Nintendo Switch that will be purchased by traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers.

http://time.com/4661055/nintendo-switch-interview/?iid=sr-link8

Takahashi said:
…“It is Nintendo Switch, so maybe we’ll switch it up!” jokes Takahashi, responding to a question about whether Switch’s life cycle will resemble more the company’s TV consoles (completely new ideas at five-year-plus intervals) or its handhelds (subtler changes every few years). “Certainly, we’ve designed Nintendo Switch in a way that it can be used by consumers in the way that best suits them. I think we may see that people who have bought a Nintendo home console in the past traditionally, they may treat Switch like a home console and buy it and use it for a long period of time.”


“Whereas people who have been traditionally Nintendo handheld gamers, they may buy Nintendo Switch and then for example, if a new version were to come out later, then maybe they would decide to upgrade to that…

This comment also indicates that the current Nintendo Switch is their SKU for targeting home console gamers, where as the new version only targets handheld console gamers.

The areas where that focus can be better served are by making the Nintendo Switch more pocketable, lower priced, with better battery life and/or not require active cooling. The Mock-ups I made all focus on those points inspired by Nintendo’s comments.

Will they all happen? Maybe, Maybe not, but that is certainly the direction that Nintendo seems to be focused on right now. Nintendo knows that the 3DS will fade as Nintendo Switch grows, and they need to fill that lower price entry point to expand the platform significantly.

People hoping for some powered up SKU that has a bunch of games the original Nintendo Switch cannot run have not paid attention to Nintendo’s history with said revisions. Anytime Nintendo has made such SKUs (i.e. DSi and New 3DS) they have allowed developers to make games for them that do not run on the original models, and the amount of total software that actually forgoes the existing user base has been very very very few titles. It just does not make sense for the financial side of things for developers to cater a portion of the install base rather than the whole install base.

Will Nintendo make Nintendo Switch models with newer and better SOCs? Probably so, but the performance benefit will be marginal to non existent at best, as the focus will be to reduce cost of the total cost of materials (i.e. a 7nm SOC would allow them to put a smaller battery, reduce the entire chassis size, and remove the active cooling).

Nintendo is not focused on upgrading resolution of their consoles. They are still selling a 240p handheld console in 2018 at reduced costs with a very healthy profit margin on hardware and will continue that focus in the future.

In 2023, the Nintendo Switch will still have a 720p screen and Nintendo will be happy with the low cost and high profit margin and will have multiple SKUs.

Nintendo's focus is it leverage its software library to sell its hardware, and to reduce costs of hardware while addressing a wider audience. Focusing on CPU and GPU power and splitting their user base is not where they will expand and Nintendo knows this.



trent44 said:

I was writing a response to this thread about Kimishima remarking that the Nintendo Switch’s life will be longer than Nintendo’s usual cycle:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=234567

And, it ended up a bit long winded in response, so I decided to make this its own thread, in discussing what Nintendo’s hypothetical 10 year plan may look like.

 

Early 2017 - Mid 2019:

 

Nintendo will continue to pay lip service to 3DS, as they quietly ship less 3DSs and 3DS games each year, and continue to ramp up Nintendo Switch production.

With new Pokemon now only coming to the Nintendo Switch, the writing is on the wall for the 3DS, but Nintendo will still happily say a few nice words about the 3DS and continue their low effort extra money printing.



Pokemon Switch, along with high quality Wii U ports (Super Smash Bros DX in 2018, etc.), and a few larger 3rd party games will help sustain the Nintendo Switch’s momentum into 2019.

 

Late 2019 - Mid 2022:

 

Late 2019 is when more original 3rd party titles will be hitting the Nintendo Switch giving it a needed boost as momentum just begins to falter. Nintendo will continue to drop marquee titles less frequently, while preparing a large second wave of first party Nintendo Switch titles for a second wind boost.

Having bought this much time is a win win for Nintendo, as they prepare a new shot in the arm for Nintendo Switch, having used this time to get production costs down on a Nintendo Switch Mini launching for $199.99 MSRP in late 2019, while still keeping the OG Nintendo Switch at $299.99 with a pack-in game (they will want to keep this price point occupied for a smidge longer), and they will also drop the New Nintendo 2DS to $99.99 and the regular 2DS to $49.99 at this same time as well.

Hitting these 4 key price points simultaneously, they will literally swim in success.



During 2020 Nintendo will give another great boost to the Nintendo Switch family, introducing the Nintendo Switch XL, which will feature the same physical dimensions as the OG Nintendo Switch, but will have some key luxuries, such as a major reduction to the bezel, allowing for a much larger screen with the same sized joycon, and a much longer battery life thanks to a much more efficient Tegra chip.

The Nintendo Switch XL will be $299.99 MSRP, the OG Nintendo Switch will drop to $249.99 without a pack-in game, and the Nintendo Switch Mini will remain $199.99 for a bit longer.

In 2021 the Nintendo Switch Mini will drop to $149.99 and the OG Nintendo Switch will drop to $229.99 and the entire 3DS line will no longer be produced just as it hits its 10th birthday.

At this point, Nintendo will be confident enough to have $149.99 as their budget entry with a massive library of games and peripherals to up-sell to newcomers.

In 2022, the big wave of new first party games that Nintendo has been saving up for this year hits shelves month after month (faster than even 2017s pace) to keep things going, and to also really capitalize on a gigantic user base allowing for a huge software sales year.

 

Late 2022 - 2027:

 

Late 2022 is where Nintendo gets a little creative to keep hardware moving, they extend the Nintendo Switch Family of devices even further, offering home console only and handheld console only models (to really cut costs) to hit a niche at an even lower price point. Launching the Nintendo Switch Boy, Nintendo Switch Girl, and Nintendo Switch TV each retailing for $99.99 MSRP



2023 Sees the launch of Nintendo Switch SP and Nintendo Switch GO for $129.99 each for collectors, and people who enjoy the novelty and niche of clamshell and slider handheld consoles.

2025 is when the Nintendo Switch 2 launches as the original Nintendo Switch Family is twilighted for the next few years. This successor will be fully backwards compatible, but Nintendo will keep the budget low price Nintendo Switches around for a few years for cheaper entries, doing price cuts where matured production cost saving allows.

The Nintendo Switch 2 would be akin to what the 3DS was to the DS, or what GBA was to GBC as far as similarities as a successor and backwards compatibility.

Nintendo switch 2, being the futuristic Hybrid console, having more processing power, with a truly unique feature (assuming the technology advanced enough in that time) Portable HD projector mode for gaming with friends and Hologram Projector mode for mixed reality gaming i.e. using player pieces (such as room scale tracking Amiibo 2.0) with a full hologram board (environmental full volume holograms projected into physical space).



So, What do you all think of this 10 year plan?

How many of these points do you think Nintendo will hit over the next 10 years?

What is your vision of how Nintendo’s next 10 years may play out?

I like all of them except the Switch Go, no ma'am 



Rumors have begun about a Nintendo Switch revision for late 2019....

https://mobile.twitter.com/WSJJapan/status/1047707384955768834



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God I hope not. Next gen can't come soon enough.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
I'm down with what the OP is saying in a very general way (i.e. the specific details may play out somewhat differently). The main thing I would disagree with is a 2025 date for the Switch's successor. I think it will likely be 2023. When Kimishima says they'll support the Switch for 10 years, that doesn't mean they'll have a later release date for Switch's successor. It means that they want to keep Switch going as a lower end system, so that they can still make money on it. Sony kept shipping PS2's out until 2013. That is more what Kimishima means. They want to keep supporting Switch just like Sony supported PS2. Besides, a company makes a lot higher profit margins on a console's tail end. All of the costs are lower.

Yes, this. This is exactly what I think about this statement. They will keep the Switch 1 as cheap option like they are keeping the 3DS currently. I can even see a successor as early as 2021, or more likely 2022, depending on how well the Switch sells after the next gen for the other companies starts.

Nautilus said:
Nintendo wont break the hybrid concept and sell only handheld or home consoles Switches.

And this here is the big point why most of the OP is not working. Currently we already have quite a lot of games that wouldn't work without detachable Joycons and a few that wouldn't work without the handheld mode. And this is without even considering Labo.

Think about it: a family thinks Go Vacation looks like a nice game. And hey, I get the base system for 100 bucks. Let's do that! Now they come home to realize they can't play Go Vacation, because the Joycons are integrated in the tablet in their version of Switch. They have to drop another 70 bucks for a pair of Joycons. Nintendo will not make this happening.

As XD84 is pointing out, Labo also fixes the size of the Switch tablet and the size of the Joycons. Currently Labo sits at 850K in VGC-tracking, without the third kit. So it will have around a million before the holidays. I think Labos future depends a bit on it's legs, so it should sell at least 300-400K over the holidays to be considered successful. But if it does that and Nintendo keeps on releasing new Labo kits, then I can't see Nintendo breaking compatibility with it.

 

So that leaves us with same base concept. But instead of reducing gameplay options with more models, Nintendo could expanding on it. That is in line with earlier consoles. DS had the DSi which added a camera. For Switch I could think of a dock that upscales to 4K, different controller options that fit into the Joycons slots (like the NES-controllers), a VR kit probably with a dock with additional hardware to add the processing power to keep things crisp in VR, 4G-support for the Switch tablet (and integrating the phone app in this version into the base Switch, so voice chat).



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Asriel said:
It makes zero sense to remove the modular nature of Switch. It's quite clearly essential to Nintendo's vision of the machine - that's why Labo is happening.

Exactly. It wouldn't be Switch without "switching". Whatever they'll do, the form factor / idea will stay the same.



Kristof81 said:
Asriel said:
It makes zero sense to remove the modular nature of Switch. It's quite clearly essential to Nintendo's vision of the machine - that's why Labo is happening.

Exactly. It wouldn't be Switch without "switching". Whatever they'll do, the form factor / idea will stay the same.

That's my biggest worry when it comes to anyone's idea about a handheld or more powerful Switch. The Joy Cons, whether you like them or not, are an integral part of the Switch's identity. When you saw the first teaser of the console, you heard the clicking sound, which was made possible by the Joy Cons. It may sound like a dumb reason, but that's part of the Switch's marketing persona. When you hear that sound, you know its about the Nintendo Switch. Plus, the Joy Cons are what makes the Switch a versatile console. You can play multiplayer off the bat, play it on handheld mode, or attach it to the Joy Con grip and play on the TV. Plus, the various features such as HD rumble, IR pointer, NFC reader, and motion controls add to the capabilities of the Switch.

I know some don't like the Joy Cons, but you can't just simply replace them for the next iteration of the Switch. Various games utilize the features of the Joy Cons and to just put them aside could affect how those particular games are played. Whether its Labo, 1-2 Switch, Super Mario Party, Splatoon 2, ARMS, and the upcoming Pokemon Let's Go games, there are games out there on Switch that utilize the Joy Con features.



Some very bad form factors to play on those shots. But yes it's possible that they will double their gen with some different models.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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