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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo revises forecast to 15M for FY, 17.76 LTD shipped by March 31st

friendlyfamine on 31 January 2018

From what I've seen EU sales have been adjusted to 340k rather than 120k for the 30th or so figure I was seeing before. So I guess the Switch wasn't selling as badly there as I thought.

...But, you're telling me that the Switch sold better in Europe that week than NA? Why?

Looks like those RotW figures were as high as 150k as well. This boost basically doubled what the Switch had globally beforehand. So I'm kinda confused right now. haha



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jonathanalis on 31 January 2018

But how it have changed from last forecast?
I remember last quarter they said they have sold 7M+, and was planning to ship other 10 Million for Q3 and Q4 combined. Seems on track with these 17M+ they forecast.



zorg1000 on 31 January 2018
friendlyfamine said:
From what I've seen EU sales have been adjusted to 340k rather than 120k for the 30th or so figure I was seeing before. So I guess the Switch wasn't selling as badly there as I thought.

...But, you're telling me that the Switch sold better in Europe that week than NA? Why?

Looks like those RotW figures were as high as 150k as well. This boost basically doubled what the Switch had globally beforehand. So I'm kinda confused right now. haha

No, they dont know exactly how much to put for each individual week, just trying to get the global sales thru Dec accurate.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

friendlyfamine on 31 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
friendlyfamine said:
From what I've seen EU sales have been adjusted to 340k rather than 120k for the 30th or so figure I was seeing before. So I guess the Switch wasn't selling as badly there as I thought.

...But, you're telling me that the Switch sold better in Europe that week than NA? Why?

Looks like those RotW figures were as high as 150k as well. This boost basically doubled what the Switch had globally beforehand. So I'm kinda confused right now. haha

No, they dont know exactly how much to put for each individual week, just trying to get the global sales thru Dec accurate.

Well, they're still not accurate since Nintendo said 14.86 million units were sold at the end of 31st Dec (right?) but according to front page it is at 13.8M, still 1 million behind.. but I guess they're not going any higher with this week as 1M+ would oversaturate the week I'm guessing? Hopefully by the next weekly figure we will be above 15M~



peachbuggy on 31 January 2018
Conina said:
peachbuggy said:

That's great for the Switch, considering its sales only include 3 quarters!

It includes 4 quarters on Switch. The launch quarter on the other platforms weren't full three months either.

The Switch was available for almost 10 months worldwide (2017-03-03 to 2017-12-31)

For example, the 3DS was available in Japan just a week longer (2011-02-27 to 2011-12-31) and 3 to 4 weeks shorter in the rest of the world than the Switch (25th/27th/31st March 2011 to 2011-12-31) .

The PS4 was only available 6 weeks in the US and 4 weeks in Europe in its launch quarter and totally absent in Japan.

I see. So the 3DS looks like it takes the lead then. The 14.4m i've seen for the PS4 must be the launch-aligned total then?



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VGPolyglot on 31 January 2018
Acevil said:
SuperNova said:
What was their previous forecost? unfortunately I forget...I'd like to know how much they adjusted up.

There was two, at one time they believed it would sell 10 million FY2018, and they raised it 14 Million. I don't know if this was reported financially or was just rumored the very first forecast was 8 million (However this might have been for the calendar year 2017).

I wonder if it was them surprised at the success, or if they were being conservative to avoid overestimating like they did with the Wii U.



zorg1000 on 31 January 2018
friendlyfamine said:
zorg1000 said:

No, they dont know exactly how much to put for each individual week, just trying to get the global sales thru Dec accurate.

Well, they're still not accurate since Nintendo said 14.86 million units were sold at the end of 31st Dec (right?) but according to front page it is at 13.8M, still 1 million behind.. but I guess they're not going any higher with this week as 1M+ would oversaturate the week I'm guessing? Hopefully by the next weekly figure we will be above 15M~

No no no.

In these financial reports sold means sold to retailers which to us is shipped.

It has always been and will always remain shipped that Nintendo reports.

14.86 million is shipped through December.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

friendlyfamine on 31 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
friendlyfamine said:

Well, they're still not accurate since Nintendo said 14.86 million units were sold at the end of 31st Dec (right?) but according to front page it is at 13.8M, still 1 million behind.. but I guess they're not going any higher with this week as 1M+ would oversaturate the week I'm guessing? Hopefully by the next weekly figure we will be above 15M~

No no no.

In these financial reports sold means sold to retailers which to us is shipped.

It has always been and will always remain shipped that Nintendo reports.

14.86 million is shipped through December.

Uhm, but so many people are saying that these are sold. Just the software is sold through? In that case, this seems more feasible, because I didn't think anything close to 15M was possible by the end of December. I guess they are wrong :/ Here



zorg1000 on 31 January 2018
friendlyfamine said:
zorg1000 said:

No no no.

In these financial reports sold means sold to retailers which to us is shipped.

It has always been and will always remain shipped that Nintendo reports.

14.86 million is shipped through December.

Uhm, but so many people are saying that these are sold. Just the software is sold through? In that case, this seems more feasible, because I didn't think anything close to 15M was possible by the end of December. I guess they are wrong :/ Here

Well so many people are wrong.

And no software is shipped+digital for retail software and excludes digital only software.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kopstudent89 on 31 January 2018
LipeJJ said:
kopstudent89 said:

First half comparatively might be up but they haven't announced anything remotely as explosive as Mario Odyssey, Splatoon, Zelda and MK to actually have that momentum building into the holidays. This all depends on Labo which I'm not sure will be as impactful as Nintendo want it to be.

To be fair, we are still in January, and Nintendo loves to reveal big games at E3. They will probably have Animal Crossing for holidays as well as Fire Emblem (already announced). Yoshi is also there as a filler. I believe they just need the rumored Smash port to go along with Animal Crossing to hit their target.

I think Pokemon gets a surprise announcement. I also think some big 3rd party games will pop up (hopefully more than just 3-4 year old ports). They definitely have more announcements to make that's for sure. I'm not too worries but I do think they pushed a lot of their games out early to get momentum. The hope is 3rd parties fill the void