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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo revises forecast to 15M for FY, 17.76 LTD shipped by March 31st

Ka-pi96 said:
Trunkin said:

EU isn't the only region that matters. Switch did extremely well in the US, and dominated in Japan.

And Japan is? That was literally the only region it "dominated". So to say it "dominated" 2018 is hyperbole at best and an outright lie at worst...

Nope. I was just engaging in some borderline trolling because the comment I was responding to seemed a bit insecure to me. Like he just can't handle the fact that NA is talked about so much more than EU, so he had a knee-jerk reaction even though it wasn't even explicitely stated by anyone that the Switch was dominating specifically in the US at all in the first place.

Really, though, who cares if someone uses the word "dominate" anyway? It's been abused so much in gaming communities that it's nearly lost all meaning.



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Acevil said:
SuperNova said:
What was their previous forecost? unfortunately I forget...I'd like to know how much they adjusted up.

There was two, at one time they believed it would sell 10 million FY2018, and they raised it 14 Million. I don't know if this was reported financially or was just rumored the very first forecast was 8 million (However this might have been for the calendar year 2017).

Thanks. I had a vague 14 Million in my head, so I guess that is the one I was thinking of. So they raised it by 1 Million. I think when they first released the 14 Million one I thought they might end up doing 16 Million when it's all said and done.

It all depends on how much they can even ship. They are planning 2.9 million for the quarter. Not sure if I can see them going much higher, if only because of manufacturing constraints.



peachbuggy said:
takoyaki7 said:
First 4 quarter of sales(The Americas/Other/Japan)

3DS   15.03M(5.47/4.91/4.66)
Switch 14.86M(5.94/5.20/3.72)
Wii  13.17M(5.46/4.04/3.67)
DS  8.83M(2.87/2.34/3.63) 
WiiU  3.91M(1.75/1.01/1.15)

PS4 13.5M
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180131e.pdf

That's great for the Switch, considering its sales only include 3 quarters!

It includes 4 quarters on Switch. The launch quarter on the other platforms weren't full three months either.

The Switch was available for almost 10 months worldwide (2017-03-03 to 2017-12-31)

For example, the 3DS was available in Japan just a week longer (2011-02-27 to 2011-12-31) and 3 to 4 weeks shorter in the rest of the world than the Switch (25th/27th/31st March 2011 to 2011-12-31) .

The PS4 was only available 6 weeks in the US and 4 weeks in Europe in its launch quarter and totally absent in Japan.

Last edited by Conina - on 31 January 2018



StuOhQ said:
Everyone scoffed when the rumors that Nintendo was readying production for 10-20M units on the NX. How the times have changed. Can the Switch dominate 2018 as well?

With Pokemon Switch yes easily



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Think they'll take a hit First half 2017. They really need to up their game for the latter half of the year to do those numbers again



kopstudent89 said:
Think they'll take a hit First half 2017. They really need to up their game for the latter half of the year to do those numbers again

Doubt it.

Jan-March 2017, 2.74 million

April-June 2017, 1.96 million

Jan-June 2017-4.70 million

 

They need to ship 2.87 million to hit their fiscal goal and considering they have raised it twice already they should meet it.

As for April-June, it had heavy shortages last Spring hence the sub-2 million shipment which should easily be beaten this year.

 

My guess is Switch will ship ~6 million in the first half of 2018.



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Very impressive, it should be able to hit that number



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zorg1000 said:
kopstudent89 said:
Think they'll take a hit First half 2017. They really need to up their game for the latter half of the year to do those numbers again

Doubt it.

Jan-March 2017, 2.74 million

April-June 2017, 1.96 million

Jan-June 2017-4.70 million

 

They need to ship 2.87 million to hit their fiscal goal and considering they have raised it twice already they should meet it.

As for April-June, it had heavy shortages last Spring hence the sub-2 million shipment which should easily be beaten this year.

 

My guess is Switch will ship ~6 million in the first half of 2018.

But the lineup right now does not have something with the same kick as BoTW did in the first-half, though we have more ports and smaller scale software. I am not sure if that will be enough to maintain momentum, particularly when Sony is coming out with a very strong software library (MHW and God of War being two big titles; and RDR2 being another) in order to stick on the mind of gamers.



Mar1217 said:
DonFerrari said:
The 15M for 1st FY have been expected in VGC since December update from Ninty I would say.

It was more in the 14M ballpark if I remember right ... Unless you were referencing Tbone's prediction :P

After we had the 10M in early December??? Maybe 14M was the ballpark of the expectations, but I do remember people saying 15M by the end of FY.



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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."