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'Black Panther' Tracking for Heroic $100M-$120M U.S. Debut

Forums - Movies Discussion - 'Black Panther' Tracking for Heroic $100M-$120M U.S. Debut

Smartie900 said:

I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I don't know about Wonder Woman, but we do tend to underestimate the ability of the black community to make a movie or television show successful (at least domestically).  I can't count the number of sleeper hits there have been for movies that weren't even on my radar.



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Smartie900 said:
thismeintiel said:

I'm guessing $90M. $100M seems a little optimistic to me. $120M just seems nuts. The recent Thor movie opened with $122.7M, but he's a much more well-known character compared to Black Panther and has had several movies to build up a following. I just hope that if this movie does do $80M-$90M, they don't start crying racism as the cause of it.

Edit: Unless they are talking for the whole 4day weekend. If so, $100M should be on lock, if it's a decent flick. 

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.



I haven't seen a Marvel movie in theaters since Iron Man 3, but I will definitely be seeing Black Panther. Representation matters.



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thismeintiel said:
Smartie900 said:

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.

I don't expect this to go over $120 million for the first 3 days. That being said, I expect this to have better legs than typical Marvel movies. The typical Marvel movie has a multiplier of 2.5. I think this movie can have one above 2.75. If it opens open to $120 million, the end result will be about $330 million domestically with the multiplier. If it outshines my expectations and performs similarly to Avengers with a multiplier of 3, then the domestic total will be around $360 million. If this movie really goes above and beyond and has a multiplier of 3.5 (similar to Guardians 1), then the domestic total will land at $420 million. My ultimate expectation is about $325 million domestic and $400 million international. $725 million total.



 

 

Smartie900 said:
thismeintiel said:

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.

I don't expect this to go over $120 million for the first 3 days. That being said, I expect this to have better legs than typical Marvel movies. The typical Marvel movie has a multiplier of 2.5. I think this movie can have one above 2.75. If it opens open to $120 million, the end result will be about $330 million domestically with the multiplier. If it outshines my expectations and performs similarly to Avengers with a multiplier of 3, then the domestic total will be around $360 million. If this movie really goes above and beyond and has a multiplier of 3.5 (similar to Guardians 1), then the domestic total will land at $420 million. My ultimate expectation is about $325 million domestic and $400 million international. $725 million total.

Yea, if the movie turns out good, I could definitely see it pushing those numbers.



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I'm legitimately excited for it. It's always fun to see something fresh, and from what I've seen they really took the African setting seriously and the aesthetics alone are incredible.

There's something wonderful about seeing people empowered who are often overlooked... I hope it lives up to the expectations of African-descent people and provides them with a fantastic and eye-popping epic starring their own.

Until now most movies featuring Africans have focused on suffering. While there SHOULD be movies that reveal the suffering, it is also important for children (and even adults) to have positive and inspiring portrayals of their culture and ancestry. The trailer, at the very least, looks like it will be precisely that.

Of course, that's a lot of weight on the shoulders of a super hero movie, but if you read the interviews from the direct (Coogan) and the producer/actors, they all recognize as much and are deadset on delivering.



Johnw1104 said:
I'm legitimately excited for it. It's always fun to see something fresh, and from what I've seen they really took the African setting seriously and the aesthetics alone are incredible.

There's something wonderful about seeing people empowered who are often overlooked... I hope it lives up to the expectations of African-descent people and provides them with a fantastic and eye-popping epic starring their own.

Until now most movies featuring Africans have focused on suffering. While there SHOULD be movies that reveal the suffering, it is also important for children (and even adults) to have positive and inspiring portrayals of their culture and ancestry. The trailer, at the very least, looks like it will be precisely that.

Of course, that's a lot of weight on the shoulders of a super hero movie, but if you read the interviews from the direct (Coogan) and the producer/actors, they all recognize as much and are deadset on delivering.

Most movies featuring African focused on suffering because that is what resonate with the western audience. Even if you do science fictional movie about Africans, it doesn't sink well and that has been the audience landscape here.



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How? I thought America was suppose to be racist?

Side Note: I personally cant wait for it. Thor Ragnarok was great and Avengers looking fantastic.



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Harkins1721 said:
How? I thought America was suppose to be racist?

Side Note: I personally cant wait for it. Thor Ragnarok was great and Avengers looking fantastic.

Shhh.  People need to believe we still are.

Seriously, though, if this movie does underperform, even slightly, I'm sure we'll be hearing about racist America, yet again.  I'm hoping it doesn't, though, cause one, I want it to be a good movie, and two, I just don't want to hear that crap. 



TopCat8 said:
I haven't seen a Marvel movie in theaters since Iron Man 3, but I will definitely be seeing Black Panther. Representation matters.

This right here is going to have a huge impact on the opening weekend, and it damn well should.  Aside from the fact that Black Panther is a great character himself, a lot of the future franchising for Marvel and DC heroes will come from how well the "firsts" do respectively.  WW did well enough to warrant more female leads and I certainly hope that BP will do the same for black leads.