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Forums - Movies & TV - 'Black Panther' Tracking for Heroic $100M-$120M U.S. Debut

Noobie on 28 January 2018

The first superhero tentpole of 2018 hits theaters in three weeks.

Ryan Coogler's Black Panther is tracking to open to a heroic $100 million-$120 million at the North American box office, according to early prerelease surveys.

Marvel Studios and Disney open the stand-alone superhero movie on Feb. 16, the beginning of the four-day Presidents' Day weekend

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/black-panther-tracking-heroic-100m-us-debut-1078222



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Acevil on 28 January 2018

That would be impressive debut, namely if compared to competition.



 

Noobie on 28 January 2018

Others are predicting even more than 130 million



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The_Liquid_Laser on 28 January 2018

I hope it's true. I am excited about Black Panther, but I didn't know if other people would view him like Ant Man and give the movie a pass.



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VGPolyglot on 28 January 2018

It seems like every Marvel movie is successful these days.



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thismeintiel on 29 January 2018

I'm guessing $90M. $100M seems a little optimistic to me. $120M just seems nuts. The recent Thor movie opened with $122.7M, but he's a much more well-known character compared to Black Panther and has had several movies to build up a following. I just hope that if this movie does do $80M-$90M, they don't start crying racism as the cause of it.

Edit: Unless they are talking for the whole 4day weekend. If so, $100M should be on lock, if it's a decent flick. 



 

Smartie900 on 29 January 2018
thismeintiel said:

I'm guessing $90M. $100M seems a little optimistic to me. $120M just seems nuts. The recent Thor movie opened with $122.7M, but he's a much more well-known character compared to Black Panther and has had several movies to build up a following. I just hope that if this movie does do $80M-$90M, they don't start crying racism as the cause of it.

Edit: Unless they are talking for the whole 4day weekend. If so, $100M should be on lock, if it's a decent flick. 

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.



 

 

thismeintiel on 29 January 2018
Smartie900 said:
thismeintiel said:

I'm guessing $90M. $100M seems a little optimistic to me. $120M just seems nuts. The recent Thor movie opened with $122.7M, but he's a much more well-known character compared to Black Panther and has had several movies to build up a following. I just hope that if this movie does do $80M-$90M, they don't start crying racism as the cause of it.

Edit: Unless they are talking for the whole 4day weekend. If so, $100M should be on lock, if it's a decent flick. 

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.



 

TopCat8 on 29 January 2018

I haven't seen a Marvel movie in theaters since Iron Man 3, but I will definitely be seeing Black Panther. Representation matters.



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Smartie900 on 29 January 2018
thismeintiel said:
Smartie900 said:

This movie has already passed the pre sale tickets of Civil War. The fact that Marvel's making a superhero movie starring a black lead is a huge deal to many people. You're gonna have the typical crowd of people who go to see it because it's a Marvel movie plus the percentage of the audience who just wants to go see it because it has a black lead. I can see this replicating Wonder Woman levels of success if it's really good.

I wouldn't really put too much importance on presales.  I mean, unless you expect this to open higher than the $179M Civil War saw.  Though, I do agree with you.  I could definitely see this thing matching WW's $103M.  I still think $120M+ is kind of a stretch.

I don't expect this to go over $120 million for the first 3 days. That being said, I expect this to have better legs than typical Marvel movies. The typical Marvel movie has a multiplier of 2.5. I think this movie can have one above 2.75. If it opens open to $120 million, the end result will be about $330 million domestically with the multiplier. If it outshines my expectations and performs similarly to Avengers with a multiplier of 3, then the domestic total will be around $360 million. If this movie really goes above and beyond and has a multiplier of 3.5 (similar to Guardians 1), then the domestic total will land at $420 million. My ultimate expectation is about $325 million domestic and $400 million international. $725 million total.