He certainly have left some disciples.

Yes, certainly not as outlandish as John Lucas or that MS folk that said the gen would have like 1 Billion devices sold.

Well I will have to admit I was wrong.

Power is never the deciding factor in what system sells most.

Never have been and never will be.

Price, appeal/trademark and games are what decides the success of a console/handheld.

The OP? Well he has certainly made some compelling points but not necessarily ones that the majority agree with. Personally i think it's far too early to tell. So much could happen in the next 5 years. A very bold prediction. Something i can't see happening atm but never say never i guess.

You are correct, but you are forgetting one thing.  Market appeal.

As of now, the Switch can handle most mid range current gen console games on the go with concessions.  Having those current gen games portably is what is selling the Switch.  However, once the OG PS4 and X1 is phased out, the OG Switch will lose out on multiplats as well and by result have less market appeal.

However if there was a NEW Switch that can handle PS5 games with consessions, it would still have that support and retain the appeal that is making it sell in the first place.  If this does not happen, the OG could be seen as "just another portable".

So to an extent, you are right.  Power does not equal sales.  However this is already being exercised with the idea of a NEW Switch as it will still be weaker than the PS5 itself.  While having raw power does not make it pass or fail per say, it will need to at least keep up with its direct competitors.

Sure the OG could still sell 100k as a "just a portable".  However if it is to be the "best selling console of all time" there are many other factors to consider, and a NEW 3DS style upgrade would pretty much be a must for that to happen.

I think it will sell less then 100 mio. I’ll say 90 mio lifetime

I would already be really surprised if it outsells the PS1 numbers but similar numbers to PS2? Haha, this won't be happening! ;)

PS1 and Wii numbers (which are basically the same) seem like the current target of the sales-curve as Switch sells similar to Wii. Wii sales curve stopped unusually early, so if we assume the same for Switch, it would land at similar numbers, so around 100M. If Switch has a longer tail than Wii (sales aren't falling from a cliff but fading out) it could outsell Wii/PS. Naturally momentum can change a bit over time, but even if momentum starts to dwindle for Switch (pretty unlikely as Pokemon is coming), 80M are pretty much set at this point. To sell lower something desastrous and unexpected would've to happen.

So, if you would be surprised if Switch reaches PS1 numbers, your analysis is off.

By the way: the same way I think a dwindling momentum is hard to achieve, I see it also as difficult to have an major increase in momentum, especially if you start already from high momentum as the Switch does. So the same argument that says PS1 numbers are likely, the same argument says PS2 numbers are pretty unlikely.

John Lucas, left disciples on very highly optimistic predictions for Nintendo.

And I agree it is to early. The only thing I can say is that from what we have so far I think it is very hard to imagine Switch doing less than 60M LT and that it can cross 100M. So I would say 80M would be a reasonable expectation one year into the gen and that is very health.

I doubt it. It should sell very well around PS360PSP numbers, but the problem is Nintendo generally cuts support for their devices by year 5 - 6, and launch their successors.

The Switch is selling great, but it's also selling during an era where gaming adoption continues to grow at its fastest. It also launched with an amazing year 1 of exclusives since Nintendo killed the Wii U (a huge benefit for the Switch, but detrimental to their home console brand). And it has had it's first true holiday sales just 9 - 10 months into its lifecycle to help boost overall year 1 sales exponentially.

That being said the Switch is still a big success for Nintendo, and it's on track to be a great seller for them of around 85m IMO, and outsell 3DS + Wii U. Honestly I want to see a sales chart comparison of Switch vs 3DS+Wii U.