If the game itself is not a disaster, sure. There is PC and if it eventually releases on another platform as well then it's gonna be easy.
If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.
If the game itself is not a disaster, sure. There is PC and if it eventually releases on another platform as well then it's gonna be easy.
If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.
Kyuu said:
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"Excuse me, but was that an attempt to sugarcoat Tri's failure?"
Tri was clearly a failure based on the series standards (at least after 2). I guessed the PSP entries came after Tri, looking it up it isn't true for every title. So, the series didn't explode after 3, it did parallel to Tri, on the PSP. The thing has not much to do with Nintendo or Playstation though, on PS2 it wasn't that big too. PSP and 3DS were the successful platforms for the series.
"The MH fanbase in Japan is NOT 6 million (if that's what you're implying)"
I implied no such thing. If you look I named MH4 as the most recent mainline entry with 3.44M sales in japan. Pokemon is slightly bigger in Japan, hence my comparison, Pokemon can reach 4M constantly, MH is constantly above 3M in Japan. That's why I said 2M for Pokemon as comparison to 1.5M for MonHun. I never lumped MH4 and MH4U together, especially not for Japan. It makes sense to combine MH4 for Japan and MH4U for the West to get a realistic picture for worldwide sales. But this was about Japan.
"Tri selling poorly had no connection whatsoever with MH's popularity at the time. Why do you think Portable 3rd sold 2 Million FW in Japan? It did, because the hype existed long before it came out. Yet this same hyped-up fanbase didn't give a damn about Tri because the Wii -they thought- was not worth it."
True, but the thread assumes it would be a success if MHW follows the Tri-failure. As I got myself into the trap, I thought beating Tri would be good for home console MonHun. But I realized my error: it would still be bad for the series.
That said: I think PS4 is fairly successful in Japan and can rally the fanbase. 3M should be possible and the measurement for success. Below it - and especially 1.5M - means a strong decline in the series. As Tri was. So, do you wanna compare MHW - the next new mainline entry with updated graphics and gameplay (and probably budget) - with one of the weaker entries in the series? Is this what you hope for the future of the franchise? If we care about the series - and I do - we should hope for at least 3M in japan (which would still be a small decline) and a considerable growth in the west, 2M there at least. Otherwise the series is in difficulties.
Do you want this graphical and gameplay update? Probably. So what does Capcom learn, if it sells only 1.5M in Japan and say 1.5M in the West? That all the investment was for naught and they should invest less in the series. That's nothing we can wish for.
I'm thinking 1.1-1.2m FW and then maybe 1.7-1.8m LT at retail. So it very well might do it with digital sales.
Current COMG preorders suggest between 1 and 1.5m physical first week. If you add digital + later PSN sales, 2m seems a lock.
Kyuu said:
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Mnementh said:
Yes, a mainline Pokemon that failed the number of others Pokemon big time would be a failure. A spinoff with smaller budget is a different thing. You explain that MHW isn't handheld, so that it doesn't need to make the same numbers. But your logic is backward. Developing Monster Hunter World was most likely more expensive than any other MonHun before. And probably big time so. Increased development cost that result in lower sales? Not a good message. 2M in Japan should be the expected minimum, a decline in japanese sales could be OK if increased western sales can balance it out. But this game shouldn't destroy the devoted user base the series built over time in japan. So the decline shouldn't be too big. 2M is total minimum, below that is bad for Capcom and bad for Monster Hunter. |
It's not like the dev team for MonHun was small to begin with. None of these games regardless of platform are small. They're all big AAA games with giant budgets. Dev cost in the comparison is pretty much a non-factor. It's known going into it that it wasn't going to sell as well in Japan, but sell better in the West.
ryuzaki57 said: Current COMG preorders suggest between 1 and 1.5m physical first week. If you add digital + later PSN sales, 2m seems a lock. |
^ O M G.... if it does 1.5m first week, in japan alone.
Theres people in the other thread (prediction monster hunter will be the best selling of all time), that think it ll do less than 3.5m total lifetime.
People really under estimate MH for some reason.
JRPGfan said:
^ O M G.... if it does 1.5m first week, in japan alone. Theres people in the other thread (prediction monster hunter will be the best selling of all time), that think it ll do less than 3.5m total lifetime. |
Worldwide?
Boutros said:
Worldwide? |
Yeah... guess they dont have much faith in the MH series.
Mnementh said:
Monster Hunter 4 did more than 3 million. How can 1.5 million for probably the most expensive MonHun ever a success? |
Eventually they'd have to make higher quality assets anyway. Even making it for the Switch would be much more expensive than the cheap 3DS games. They don't lose the high quality assets they create with this game, so they will certainly be used again in future games. It's just a higher up front cost. Also, 1.5 million on a console brings in about 50% more revenue than 1.5 million on a handheld, so revenue-wise it closes the gap a bit.
Mnementh said:
"Excuse me, but was that an attempt to sugarcoat Tri's failure?" Tri was clearly a failure based on the series standards (at least after 2). I guessed the PSP entries came after Tri, looking it up it isn't true for every title. So, the series didn't explode after 3, it did parallel to Tri, on the PSP. The thing has not much to do with Nintendo or Playstation though, on PS2 it wasn't that big too. PSP and 3DS were the successful platforms for the series. "The MH fanbase in Japan is NOT 6 million (if that's what you're implying)" I implied no such thing. If you look I named MH4 as the most recent mainline entry with 3.44M sales in japan. Pokemon is slightly bigger in Japan, hence my comparison, Pokemon can reach 4M constantly, MH is constantly above 3M in Japan. That's why I said 2M for Pokemon as comparison to 1.5M for MonHun. I never lumped MH4 and MH4U together, especially not for Japan. It makes sense to combine MH4 for Japan and MH4U for the West to get a realistic picture for worldwide sales. But this was about Japan. "Tri selling poorly had no connection whatsoever with MH's popularity at the time. Why do you think Portable 3rd sold 2 Million FW in Japan? It did, because the hype existed long before it came out. Yet this same hyped-up fanbase didn't give a damn about Tri because the Wii -they thought- was not worth it." True, but the thread assumes it would be a success if MHW follows the Tri-failure. As I got myself into the trap, I thought beating Tri would be good for home console MonHun. But I realized my error: it would still be bad for the series. That said: I think PS4 is fairly successful in Japan and can rally the fanbase. 3M should be possible and the measurement for success. Below it - and especially 1.5M - means a strong decline in the series. As Tri was. So, do you wanna compare MHW - the next new mainline entry with updated graphics and gameplay (and probably budget) - with one of the weaker entries in the series? Is this what you hope for the future of the franchise? If we care about the series - and I do - we should hope for at least 3M in japan (which would still be a small decline) and a considerable growth in the west, 2M there at least. Otherwise the series is in difficulties. Do you want this graphical and gameplay update? Probably. So what does Capcom learn, if it sells only 1.5M in Japan and say 1.5M in the West? That all the investment was for naught and they should invest less in the series. That's nothing we can wish for. |
What about install base and attach ratios?
MH4 debuted with 1.7m (14%) on a 12.5m 3DS install base, this became as you say 3.44m (14%) on a 24m+ 3DS install base.
So MHW debuting with ~1m (16.6%) on a 6m install base would be bad? 1.5m (15-12.5%) LTD out of 10-12m is bad? Quite frankly 3m (30-25%) would be ridiculous, and close to impossible without major PS4 growth.