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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 23 December 2017

DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

France may be even 50% of Europe if want, still PS4 lead on Europe was so big that you using Switch doing good in France as any measure of Europe success is as silly as putting that because PS4 is doing good in a region it is doing any good in a particular country.

The part is not the total and the total is not the part

My argument is sound and a flawed comparison you draw isn't going to change that. Trunks, who does the hardware numbers for this site, agrees that France is an indicator for the whole of Europe, that's why he made upward adjustments to the whole of Europe following the news of GfK data in France.

The same trunks that you said wouldn't correct the numbers because you didn't had more numbers?

How surprsing right?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

France may be even 50% of Europe if want, still PS4 lead on Europe was so big that you using Switch doing good in France as any measure of Europe success is as silly as putting that because PS4 is doing good in a region it is doing any good in a particular country.

The part is not the total and the total is not the part

France made up 20-25% of European totals for DS, Wii, 3DS & Wii U so if we assume a similar percentage for Switch (no reason not to) than Europe should be ~4 million give or take for Switch.

This site has it at 2.92m with one week left so ~3 million with that week added in. Europe is most likely undertracked for Switch.

Sure sure, and very soon we will have Switch at 15M for the end of December, selling 5M in December only.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 13 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

France made up 20-25% of European totals for DS, Wii, 3DS & Wii U so if we assume a similar percentage for Switch (no reason not to) than Europe should be ~4 million give or take for Switch.

This site has it at 2.92m with one week left so ~3 million with that week added in. Europe is most likely undertracked for Switch.

Sure sure, and very soon we will have Switch at 15M for the end of December, selling 5M in December only.

Instead of being condescending, how about you address the point i made?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure sure, and very soon we will have Switch at 15M for the end of December, selling 5M in December only.

Instead of being condescending, how about you address the point i made?

There is no point in addressing points that won't remember that the numbers are already being corrected as soon as trunks see were they should shift and that RoW will get reduced to make the total right, meaning that total won't change much.

And sorry to inform you that the past is no warrant of future. You can use the 20-25% as a pointing guide, but that doesn't mean that this gen it is the same.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

The same trunks that you said wouldn't correct the numbers because you didn't had more numbers?

How surprsing right?

Here's the timeline:

1. Last week a few people said that Switch sales in Europe are worrisome.

2. I pointed out that VGC's split between Europe and Rest of the World is wrong, because reasonable assumptions point in that direction. Therefore Switch is actually doing fine in Europe, it's just that VGC's numbers don't reflect it.

3. You asked me why I am not contacting Trunks to change the numbers.

4. I responded by saying that it's pointless without any evidence.

5. A couple of days later GfK numbers for France got publicized.

6. Trunks immediately made adjustments to VGC's numbers for Europe on his own, increasing more than just the numbers for France because Europe on the whole looked underestimated in context.

And also Trunks have been quite open to hear assumptions and rationalizations on the numbers that could help the numbers be more precise. Sure Gfk helps (and when I answered you I said they had access to some of the Gfklike numbers, like UK), but historic analysis would help trunks to look at current numbers and see if the split was right or wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
zorg1000 on 13 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Instead of being condescending, how about you address the point i made?

There is no point in addressing points that won't remember that the numbers are already being corrected as soon as trunks see were they should shift and that RoW will get reduced to make the total right, meaning that total won't change much.

And sorry to inform you that the past is no warrant of future. You can use the 20-25% as a pointing guide, but that doesn't mean that this gen it is the same.

Nope Europe is low and therefore global is low as well.

 

End of March

Global-2.5 million

USA-900k

Japan-560k

 

End of Sept

Global-7 million

USA-2.3 million

Japan-1.8 million

 

As of Dec 10

Global-over 10 million

USA-over 3.4 million

Japan-2.7 million

 

End of 2017

Global-???

USA-over 4.8 million

Japan-3.3 million

 

USA+Japan made up about 60% of global sales at the end of March, end of Sept and as of Dec 10. Its safe to assume it has remained about the same so end of 2017 totals should be 13-13.5 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

And also Trunks have been quite open to hear assumptions and rationalizations on the numbers that could help the numbers be more precise. Sure Gfk helps (and when I answered you I said they had access to some of the Gfklike numbers, like UK), but historic analysis would help trunks to look at current numbers and see if the split was right or wrong.

I don't think VGC has access to GfK numbers for the UK because it's not uncommon that notable adjustments need to be made to the UK after GfK numbers for the UK get publicized.

Anyways...

I said that Switch is selling well in Europe and that bothered you. Does it still bother you?

I'm not bothered by Switch doing well or even doing well in Europe. I just pointed that id doing good in France doesn't mandatorily mean it done good in all Europe (point in case, Switch was the fastest selling console in France on the first 10 months, but wasn't the same for Europe as a whole). That is why I pointed that Asia itself have been good for PS4 and that doesn't mean Japan itself did good, or we could even put that Europe doing bad for X1 doesn't make it do bad in UK.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 13 January 2018
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

There is no point in addressing points that won't remember that the numbers are already being corrected as soon as trunks see were they should shift and that RoW will get reduced to make the total right, meaning that total won't change much.

And sorry to inform you that the past is no warrant of future. You can use the 20-25% as a pointing guide, but that doesn't mean that this gen it is the same.

Nope Europe is low and therefore global is low as well.

 

End of March

Global-2.5 million

USA-900k

Japan-560k

 

End of Sept

Global-7 million

USA-2.3 million

Japan-1.8 million

 

As of Dec 10

Global-over 10 million

USA-over 3.4 million

Japan-2.7 million

 

End of 2017

Global-???

USA-over 4.8 million

Japan-3.3 million

 

USA+Japan made up about 60% of global sales at the end of March, end of Sept and as of Dec 10. Its safe to assume it has remained about the same so end of 2017 totals should be 13-13.5 million.

Sure it is reasonable (not mandatory) and as I put in another post, if Nintendo shipped 15M by December end it is likely that Switch sold 13-14M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 13 January 2018
DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

Nope Europe is low and therefore global is low as well.

 

End of March

Global-2.5 million

USA-900k

Japan-560k

 

End of Sept

Global-7 million

USA-2.3 million

Japan-1.8 million

 

As of Dec 10

Global-over 10 million

USA-over 3.4 million

Japan-2.7 million

 

End of 2017

Global-???

USA-over 4.8 million

Japan-3.3 million

 

USA+Japan made up about 60% of global sales at the end of March, end of Sept and as of Dec 10. Its safe to assume it has remained about the same so end of 2017 totals should be 13-13.5 million.

Sure it is reasonable (not mandatory) and as I put in another post, if Nintendo shipped 15M by December end it is likely that Switch sold 13-14M.

So if you agree that what i said is believable than what was the point of your original snarky response to me?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

xMetroid on 13 January 2018

Wait.. Nintendo shipped 15 millions Switch by the end of September? It must have sold big time during the last 3 weeks if it was only at 10m as of dec 10th.

Probably around 13+ million since Switch are selling fast