By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Sales 16 December 2017

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

To play devil's advocate, it's looking like the first half of the year could be a massive game drought for Switch, and it has no real system sellers yet confirmed for this year.

Devil's advocate is obligated to be intellectually honest.

What major games confirmed for Jan-June 2018 or killer apps confirmed for this year have I missed?



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

you can say the same thing for DS, despite having 2 holiday periods, and being much cheaper then 3ds. 3ds actually sold more it's first year, but look how that turned out. I expect similar results with switch, because the first year it will be very front loaded because its nintendo, next handheld and console. 

That's... that's...

You make a point that should speak in favor of Switch, but somehow you flip it all upside down and consider it a point against Switch.

Man, you are setting yourself up to get bullied so hard. Expect TalonMan to change your username from quickrick to slowmoe.

I never said it was a point against switch. what I'm trying to say is it's looking good for switch this year just like it was looking for 3ds to match the DS when comparing first year sales, but you never know what the future holds.



RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

What major games confirmed for Jan-June 2018 or killer apps confirmed for this year have I missed?

What you have missed is that a Nintendo Direct is imminent and said Direct will provide release dates/months for Switch games in the first half of 2018 and also give information on Switch games that can be expected to launch in the latter half of 2018. Additionally, Nintendo Directs in 2017 had it regularly happen that newly announced games released within a few months, so not knowing about games right now doesn't equate to games not existing or games not being anywhere close to ready for release.

You are aware of the above things, that's why your previous post was not intellectually honest.

Those are all distinct possibilities; maybe there is a Nintendo Direct imminent, maybe they will announce more major new games for Jan-June, maybe there are as yet unconfirmed big system sellers coming this year. But that's a lot of maybes. At the moment, it's all up in the air.



CGI-Quality said:
quickrick said:

Don't read too much into amazon, wait for NPD. it wont be selling as well as ps4 thats for sure this year compared ps4 2014

Willing to place a bet on it? You win - you're immune to any and all thrashing from the site. My call. You lose, no one is moderated for having a go at you (within reason - but with much more leniency)! Deal?

This is rich. Omg I love betting on this site, but this is next level. I can’t wait for this one.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

So we are back to falling off a cliff?

Nothing suggests Switch sales will start to drop.

To play devil's advocate, it's looking like the first half of the year could be a massive game drought for Switch, and it has no real system sellers yet confirmed for this year.

Bayonetta 1+2 in February

Dragon Quest Builders in the West February 9

Dragon Quest XI is slated for 2018 on Switch

Kirby, Yoshi and Fire Emblem are all coming this year

No more Heroes: Travis strikes again

Granted, they are not the biggest system sellers, but they will sell quite a few consoles on themselves, anyway



Around the Network
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

To play devil's advocate, it's looking like the first half of the year could be a massive game drought for Switch, and it has no real system sellers yet confirmed for this year.

Bayonetta 1+2 in February

Dragon Quest Builders in the West February 9

Dragon Quest XI is slated for 2018 on Switch

Kirby, Yoshi and Fire Emblem are all coming this year

No more Heroes: Travis strikes again

Granted, they are not the biggest system sellers, but they will sell quite a few consoles on themselves, anyway

Of those though, Kirby, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem are the only ones with significant selling power, and even then they're not really killer apps. They're nice to have for those who already own a Switch, but they won't push droves of new customers to buy a Switch.



ohmylanta1003 said:
CGI-Quality said:

Willing to place a bet on it? You win - you're immune to any and all thrashing from the site. My call. You lose, no one is moderated for having a go at you (within reason - but with much more leniency)! Deal?

This is rich. Omg I love betting on this site, but this is next level. I can’t wait for this one.

yea this is awesome. at resetera talking about games like talking about islam in a mosque, super strict and sensitive about everything. 



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Bayonetta 1+2 in February

Dragon Quest Builders in the West February 9

Dragon Quest XI is slated for 2018 on Switch

Kirby, Yoshi and Fire Emblem are all coming this year

No more Heroes: Travis strikes again

Granted, they are not the biggest system sellers, but they will sell quite a few consoles on themselves, anyway

Of those though, Kirby, Yoshi, and Fire Emblem are the only ones with significant selling power, and even then they're not really killer apps. They're nice to have for those who already own a Switch, but they won't push droves of new customers to buy a Switch.

I wouldn't count out Dragon Quest XI or Bayonetta 1+2 that fast. Bayonetta is doing quite well already on amazon and will certainly push the console quite a bit in the west at least, while DQ XI will probably be preferred on Switch than on the 3DS in the west since the latter is a dying platform now.

I actually believe there's a great chance for the Switch being best-selling platform for the first Bayonetta. So basically 10 years after it's release, it found it's platform, too.



RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

I never said it was a point against switch. what I'm trying to say is it's looking good for switch this year just like it was looking for 3ds to match the DS when comparing first year sales, but you never know what the future holds.

Oh, I remember that. Back then a bunch of people were saying it's all rosy for the 3DS because it's tracking ahead of the DS. I said that the 3DS had a major price cut in its first year and that the market reception for 3D has been far below expectations, nevermind that the DS peaked at insanely high levels that would already be tough to match for a console with healthy momentum. Then JayWood2010 (famous VGC member) responded by saying that I should be ignored because I am a kid who doesn't know what he's talking about.

You are now committing the same error. You seemingly don't want to recognize that Switch and 3DS have notably different momentum and that's why you project them to perform similarly despite their very different performances in year 1. What does year 2 hold for Switch and 3DS?

For the 3DS we already know because we have the benefit of hindsight. The 3DS had a rather quiet first half, then New Super Mario Bros. 2 in August and the big holiday title was Paper Mario: Sticker Star. That wasn't that great of a lineup in year 2. The main culprit for that was the Wii U, a new console that launched in late 2012 and had to be supported by Nintendo; not just in 2012, but also in the following year. Nintendo's development resources were split between two systems with the Wii U having the top teams working on it.

And now we have to consider how year 2 will look for Switch. Is there a new console in the works at Nintendo? No? Well then, that's a significant advantage for Switch's software pipeline as Switch will remain the focus of Nintendo's top teams. It's the top teams that put out the biggest system sellers and that's what creates momentum for hardware sales. So Switch in year 2 has two big advantages over the 3DS: For one, it enters the year with much healthier momentum than the 3DS did, and two, its momentum will be further fueled by better first party support than the 3DS got. We can actually add a third advantage, because Switch's third party support is more robust than the 3DS's at the same stage.

You say that we don't know what the future holds, but I say that an honest evaluation of a few basic factors goes a long way in determining whether year 2 of any given system will be up, flat or down. Switch is in such good shape that the arrow points up.

They had every right to think that remember the ds was 130$, soon after launch, who's to say 170$ couldn't get it do ds numbers with price drop, even ps2 had a 100$ drop 1 year and some months after launch, playstation as well, you look at price drops to negatively.  



RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

They had every right to think that remember the ds was 130$, soon after launch, who's to say 170$ couldn't get it do ds numbers with price drop, even ps2 had a 100$ drop 1 year and some months after launch, playstation as well, you look at price drops to negatively.  

It's a good thing that I already post with the expectation that only observers will read the entirety of my posts.

I read your post. 2018 will convince me. i just don't think nintendo has that much appeal. other wise there home consoles would have sold much better like i said before, even with out there full out put.

Last edited by quickrick - on 10 January 2018