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Forums - Sales Discussion - Weekly Hardware Chart - DECEMBER 9TH 2017

EricHiggin said:
Intrinsic said:

I am not saying I agree with him, but I don't disagree with him either. Funny enough, for the same reasons you stated but I am just looking at them differently.

I don't agree with anyone that judges the long term performance of any new hardware based on its first year of sales. In truth, I don't even care about the first year of sales, I am talking more about how long it will take that new hardware to saturate what I personally call a dedicated fanbase.

Since we are talking about the switch, I want to believe that there are a certain number of people that would buy the switch rgardless of anything anyone says or thinks. Lets put that number at 10-15M. Less than what the WiiU sold to be fair and more than what it sold to account for people that are first time nintendo hardware buyers over this launch period.

I think before we get a real handle of how the NS long term performance is going to be we simply need more time. We need to see what its baseline is this year. How its selling when there isn't any new IP or holiday season or launch madness to drive sales. It tracking better or worse than th 3ds doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Kinda like how the PS4 tracking better than the PS2 (which mid you was the best selling console of all time) doesn't mean anything when its most likely not going to sell more than 130M lifetime when its all said and done.

This. Nin's consoles have an overall user base that is unstable in comparison to XB and PS. Switch being sold as a console puts it in that category to some degree. Since it is also a handheld, it also fits into that category as well, which has a much more stable user base for Nin. Until we see how many Wii type buyers are in the mix, as well as how many handheld buyers switch to Switch, it will be very hard to guess at overall life time sales. I don't see Switch puttering out so soon and only doing Gamecube type numbers, but I also don't see enough evidence yet for Wii type numbers either, so I'm guessing somewhere in between at the moment. Sales over the next year or two should give a strong indication whether Switch has long legs or if it slowly fizzles out. If Nin still continues with handheld and Switch, and Switch only sells say 40M or 50M life time, that's not bad at all assuming their new handheld hardware continues to sell strong like it always has. If Switch is going to be the future all in one Nin device, they should expect to at least match overall handheld sales as the price drops over time.

We should have a better idea after January's direct.  I've suspected for a while, and Kimishima's comments seem to indicate, that this past year has been more or less a soft launch main to get a solid base among their core fanbase.  This year I think they'll be doing more to get back some of the Wii/DS gamers.  I don't think they'll be going quite as far in that direction as they did before, but I definitely expect a few big titles meant to attract casual gamers.



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Lonely_Dolphin said:

Pretty extreme to believe record amounts of people are blindly buying the Switch. Maybe at launch there's the dedicated fanbase buying just cause it's Nintendo, but no way through out the whole year. If blind buyers were that numerous then Wii U should've sold this much year 1 and 3DS too before it's pricecut. I especially don't like that way of thinking as it undermines Nintendo's hard work n effort, that Switch isn't selling well because of it's great concept, games, and marketing, but eh to each their own!

Sure you can always just wait until the last year of a system to make sure you have the best idea of how it's going to turn out, but that's boring lol. The Switch has had non-holiday/non-launch weeks already, and significant new games releasing frequently should be the norm. Of course the final LTD number only becomes more clear the closer we get to it, but there's no harm making predictions at any point, especially the immediate future. Switch sold as much as 3DS but without a massive value increase, and Switch had supply constraints while 3DS did not, these reasons alone don't guarantee Switch ltd > 3DS ltd, but it does mean Switch is in a better position for long term success going into it's 2nd year compared to 3DS.

You need to take into account that the NS is a hybrid. So its not only the home console nintendo buyers (wiiU veterans) we are talking about here. But also the mobile console nintendo buyers (3DS veterans) we are talking about. The NS is outperforming the PS4 in japan, a region that we know is heavily biased towards mobile gaming now; that confirms that the switch is selling on its merits of being a handheld at least somewhere.

So the question is this, how many nintendo die hards that would buy a wiiU or a 3DS do you think is out there? Surely now that 10M figure I put out there seems reasonable now.

I am also not trying to undermine anything, all i am saying is that we wait and see its baseline this year (not till the end of its life cycle). Cause that will give a clear indication of how its performing and at such better, solid predictions can be made.  A console selling 10M in a year doesn't mean its suddenly gonna hit 100M. Jut look at the dreamcast.



Intrinsic said:

A console selling 10M in a year doesn't mean its suddenly gonna hit 100M. Jut look at the dreamcast.

What about Dreamcast? Are you saying it sold 10m in a year? Because it sure as hell did not.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

A console selling 10M in a year doesn't mean its suddenly gonna hit 100M. Jut look at the dreamcast.

What about Dreamcast? Are you saying it sold 10m in a year? Because it sure as hell did not.

Point I am making is that we shouldn't just go by first year sales alone and that we should give the NS time to settle. 

Dunno why this concept is so hard for some to accept.

Its the same thing that a lot said about the PS4 back in 2014



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

What about Dreamcast? Are you saying it sold 10m in a year? Because it sure as hell did not.

Point I am making is that we shouldn't just go by first year sales alone and that we should give the NS time to settle. 

Dunno why this concept is so hard for some to accept.

Its the same thing that a lot said about the PS4 back in 2014

i agree with you , but n64, 3ds, and xbone are much better comparisons. they had much much better starts then most consoles, but didn't get near 100 million.



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

What about Dreamcast? Are you saying it sold 10m in a year? Because it sure as hell did not.

Point I am making is that we shouldn't just go by first year sales alone and that we should give the NS time to settle. 

Dunno why this concept is so hard for some to accept.

Its the same thing that a lot said about the PS4 back in 2014

I still dont see how Dreamcast relates, it didnt have a good first year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

 

Shadow1980 said:

The Switch was at about 2.62M at the end of October, so this means that combined Nov.+Dec. sales were at least 2.18M. We never got an exact number for November, but assuming it was between 750-800k we can peg December at around 1.4M, plus or minus several hundred thousand.

Oh, and I can't help but mention that in this case a launch-aligned comparison isn't exactly apt. After 10 months, no other console had a full non-launch holiday season. The the PS1 & N64's 10th month would have been a June, the PS2's would have been a July, and every other console from the Xbox & GameCube up to the PS4 & XBO would have their 10th month in an August.

Not trying to downplay the Switch's excellent first year. Just putting it into perspective. A better comparison would be to compare the Switch to the first full calendar year of those other systems. Granted, the Switch didn't have a full Q1, but its March was comparable to the first Q1 of other successful systems. Comparing the Switch's 2017 to the first full calendar year of other systems from the past four generations, we get this:

Not nearly as good as the Wii or PS2, but those are very high bars that we shouldn't expect anything else to reach. But it is a bit ahead of the PS4 & N64.

 

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Point I am making is that we shouldn't just go by first year sales alone and that we should give the NS time to settle. 

Dunno why this concept is so hard for some to accept.

Its the same thing that a lot said about the PS4 back in 2014

I still dont see how Dreamcast relates, it didnt have a good first year.

It's obvious he made a mistake with dreamcast. but looking at the chart is shows how meaningless first years are. 

 



I will laugh so hard when i see peoples faces that are hyping the switch to the sky right now, after the hype died in a year or two



Pillertriller said:
I will laugh so hard when i see peoples faces that are hyping the switch to the sky right now, after the hype died in a year or two

Or vice versa.  President expecting 20 millions after having really low expectations for the start isn't for no reason.



zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Point I am making is that we shouldn't just go by first year sales alone and that we should give the NS time to settle. 

Dunno why this concept is so hard for some to accept.

Its the same thing that a lot said about the PS4 back in 2014

I still dont see how Dreamcast relates, it didnt have a good first year.

Forget the dreamcast.... bad example. 

The important thing is the point I am trying to make. Not everything that does well in its first year goes on to be a great sucess. And theer are other consoles that can show this. 

Same way how not everything that didn't do too great in its first year still went on to be successful. 

Point is, we all need more time for anyone to be able to make a reasonable prediction or analysis.