What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor.
The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:
- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.
- Mario and Zelda have extremely high attachment rates. If you compare them between Europe and US, in EU they're signficantly higher. That could be looked at that in EU, mostly Zelda/Mario/Nintendo fans bought a Switch, whereas in the US the Switch got through to a larger crowd (although the contrary to that is, that they didn't buy Zelda/Mario, but want other games). Additionaly, this can also mean that, as games are tied to physical discs, sharing them is very simple, and therefore limits software sales.
- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.
- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)
- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€. If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )