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Nintendo Switch has become the fastest selling video game system of all time in the US

Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch has become the fastest selling video game system of all time in the US

VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Mario and Zelda have extremely high attachment rates. If you compare them between Europe and US, in EU they're signficantly higher. That could be looked at that in EU, mostly Zelda/Mario/Nintendo fans bought a Switch, whereas in the US the Switch got through to a larger crowd (although the contrary to that is, that they didn't buy Zelda/Mario, but want other games). Additionaly, this can also mean that, as games are tied to physical discs, sharing them is very simple, and therefore limits software sales.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

 



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VideoGameAccountant said:

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough

I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Chances that Switch will outsell Ps4 WW is just slim. First it's very unlikely it will even outsell the ps4 in US (lifetime). The console in it's third year will likely start to fizzle out because of no third-party support. It will probably get some japanese support but basically 0 % from western developers (maybe some indie support and a AAA game). The console hardware performance is just to low to get support. 

Even if it beat the ps4 in US it will be with a small margin and won't make up for the big loss in Europe.

Third Switch aren't beating the Wii in sales and PS4 will easily beat it. Will sell at a minimun 110+ million but will probably reach 130+ million.



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VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The PS4 has very strong sales in pretty much every markets.

The XBOX brand selling more in US is not a very good comparation imo. The 360 had good sales in Europe, but was dead in Japan and was selling very low in the rest of the world.

Overall, Nintendo is a mix of the 2. Nintendo does not good in every markets of the world like Sony does, but has not only one or two good markets like the XBOX brand has.

Nintendo does not good in small markets, which are pretty much dominated by Sony, however, in pretty much almost every important markets, Nintendo and this case Switch sells very good, this include:

 

  • Japan
  • United State
  • Canada
  • France
  • Germany
  • Spain
  • Italy
And many others. Also he does not always bad in every non important markets. Africa is a good example of this. The only big market where Nintendo struggle too much is the UK, but is a reasonable weakness which doesn't even matter that much when you do so good in the others important markets, expecially USA and Japan.

 

That said, people in this site keep talking about Europe, but that's surely not the main reason. I would like to remember that the DS outsold PS2 in a lot of important markets, yes, even Europe markets.

If we talk about Japan, America and Europe, there was no way for PS2 to outsell DS. The only reason why PS2 is over DS, is because other smaller markets, which in the end made the difference, indeed PS2 is over DS by a very slighly margin.

 

And to be honest, i think this is the case for PS4/Switch. America+Japan+Europe, no shit. Switch will most likely outsell PS4.

In Japan Switch is gonna sell 3DS like numbers, aka 25 million or more, PS4 will be lucky to sell 10 million (probabily less) , so >15 million gap in Japan are very likely. America (pretty much all, but expecially USA and Canada) will increase this gap even more, probabily to >20 million.

 

PS4 is not gonna outsell Switch by over 20 million in Europe. If PS4 outsell Switch, it will be thanks the rest of the word. People just underestimate way too much those markets, PS console many times sold 20/25 million in markets outside of America/Europe/Japan, which is not a tiny number, that's the real Switch challenge, not the Europe.

 

Well, of course better sales in Europe from Switch would help....

Last edited by Ryng_Tolu - on 07 January 2018

Hustensaft said:

 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

There's no need to worry about that, Nintendo has lots of big franchises. Pokémon, 2D Mario, Animal Crossing and Super Smash Bros are all bigger than Zelda. By the time all of these have released, we'll probably already be getting the next Zelda and Mario Kart.



Hustensaft said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Mario and Zelda have extremely high attachment rates. If you compare them between Europe and US, in EU they're signficantly higher. That could be looked at that in EU, mostly Zelda/Mario/Nintendo fans bought a Switch, whereas in the US the Switch got through to a larger crowd (although the contrary to that is, that they didn't buy Zelda/Mario, but want other games). Additionaly, this can also mean that, as games are tied to physical discs, sharing them is very simple, and therefore limits software sales.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

 

smash is more popular than zelda too. So they have Smash and Pokemon (and even mariokart 9) left as their biggest sellers.



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The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Awesome. I hope 3rd parties take the system seriously going forward.



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Hustensaft said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

What I'm saying is Switch will outsell PS4 in Japan and US. Based on current trends, that's what is going to happen and because consoles are momentum based (first year determines later years). PS4 did reach 10 million faster but this is considering PS4 launched in November and Switch launched in March, and the difference was only a week. After its firs holiday, it's the fastest selling system in the US. Trend is in Switch;s favor. 

The Switch trend just doesn't seem that easily to predict for me. Several arguments in favour of the trend continuing, can also be turned around:

- Nintendo already released two of it's three biggest franchises. Only Pokemon is left. Software sells system, and what we know of, aside of pokemon (Bayonetta, Yoshi, Metroid) has a far smaller target scope than Zelda and Mario.

- Multiple consoles per home. Anecdotal stories of people (nintendo fans) buying consoles for their SOs, kids, parents, pets, ancestors in heavens are there (although because they stayed glued to it due to certain casual games). But this still keeps the console in Nintendo areas. Nintendo has to reach to gamers outside of the Nintendo comfort zone.

- Supply was limited up to Christmas. This could've easily greated an above usual demand on the Switch. In Europe, where it has been available readily since June, the Switch sales didn't take off as much as they did in US (although that can just as well be a fault of the price - or both factors take effect here). Now that supply is ensured, sales could change (altough in both directions)

- As i live in Germany: The Switch started out at 330€ - and for the past 1.5 weeks, virtually every major electronic store (including amazon) has dropped the Switch down to 299€.  If that's the case, i'd advise any EU gamer to hold off buying a Switch until further price cuts (if the Switch was priced to PS4 competition in EU similar to how it is in US, then the Switch would need to cost ~270€ )

 

-Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Smash Bros are all bigger than Zelda. Also MK8D is port of Wii U MK game, we will probably have MK9 on Switch also, same like onother 3D Mario, 2D Mario, other Nintendo IPs, new IPs, 3rd party exclusives..

-Actually Switch is already selling to people that are not only Nintendo fans, we have people that are buying Switch also to play 3rd party games in full handheld model, and we can expect that will increase because stronger and bigger 3rd party will come to Switch.

-US is traditionally strongest market for Nintendo, like Europe is for Sony.

-Switch in US and Japan is around $300, only in Europe is 330e, so maybe Nintendo stealthy lower price to be on same level like in US and Japan. I wouldnt expect lower price than that any time soon (before official price cut that will probably be earliest around holiday 2018.).



Trumpstyle said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Switch Will Outsell PS4 because Europe is not enough

I don't know why people are still claiming PS4 will outsell Switch worldwide? The Switch is outselling the PS4 in Japan (I think it's at around 40-50% of PS4's LTD sales). It's selling faster than the PS4 in the US. Outselling Switch in Europe won't be enough to put PS4 over Switch. The PS4 would have to sell more than Switch there by a greater margin than Switch outsell PS4 in both Japan and the US. It's not going to happen. Look at the 360. It crushed the PS3 in the US but because it couldn't sell in Japan or Europe (outside of the UK), it was outsold by PS3 worldwide. This is the same scenario here. I don't know why people still think PS4 can beat Switch.

Chances that Switch will outsell Ps4 WW is just slim. First it's very unlikely it will even outsell the ps4 in US (lifetime). The console in it's third year will likely start to fizzle out because of no third-party support. It will probably get some japanese support but basically 0 % from western developers (maybe some indie support and a AAA game). The console hardware performance is just to low to get support. 

Even if it beat the ps4 in US it will be with a small margin and won't make up for the big loss in Europe.

Third Switch aren't beating the Wii in sales and PS4 will easily beat it. Will sell at a minimun 110+ million but will probably reach 130+ million.

You must have missed the fact that the Switch is an indie gold mine and this will continue for years to come. Indie games are becoming more and more important to the industry... Minecraft started out as an indie game, Sonic Mania was developed by indie developers, Rocket League, PUBG, Cuphead, etc. 

Just this year I bought Steamworld Dig 2, Sonic Mania, Steamworld Heist: Ultimate Edition, Enter the Gungeon, Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove and Stardew Valley. All highly rated games that were very successful on the Switch. 



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tbone51 said:

Only wanted to point out Japan. Its under 3ds but only because switch is still

Supply restraint and it'll have a stronger year 2 than 3ds. Hell switch has a chance to do 6mil next year if supply and other factorscome in. Its not guaranteed though but don't look at switch sales lifetime like it'll be under 3ds because 3ds is winning. Don't forget 3ds peak year was year1

Switch's supply issue in Japan was sorted out when it's MSRP reached towards within 5% near the end of December so immediate demand was met ... 

VideoGameAccountant said:

Well first, PS4 is going to have to make up two gaps: US and Japan. That's the reason PS4 won't beat out Switch. Because consoles are momentum driven and the Switch has stronger momentum than the PS4, Switch will outsell it in those regions. Regardless, let's look at Japan.

In about the systems's 4th year, PS4 has sold about 5 million systems in Japan. The system won't be able to break 10 million LTD. The Switch has already sold at least half of that in a single year. Right now, the 3DS has sold 23 million in Japan. If we assume that the Switch sells less (which is dumb and I'll say why in a minute), then the Switch will sell about 20 million LTD in that region. This means, at a minimum, PS4's European sales will have to make up a gap of 10 million plus any gap that comes out of the US. But this is assuming the Switch is closer to 3DS sales than it is to DS sales. The PS2 sold about 23 million units. So Switch could easily sell 25 million units if the pace continues (and given the shortages of even games, I don't see it slowing). The reason the 3DS is selling faster is that it was the successor to the most successful system in Japan. The Switch didn't take off for a few months in Japan like it did in the US because Zelda is less popular there. Once Mario Kart and Splatoon came out, the system became sold out. So when you compare those two systems, a life to date tracking is going to be off because the Switch started slower and ramped up while the 3DS started strong and then fizzled out (which is why the price cut). 

The idea that PS4 will still outsell Switch is a lack of understanding of simple arithmetic and wishful thinking. In order for PS4 to outsell Switch, the difference in European sales needs to be greater than the difference in both US sales and Japan sales. And Switch isn't doing too bad in Europe as its selling about the same as it is in the US (based on Nintendo earnings releases). Moreover, Europe is not this magical sales region. If you look at historical sales, the best selling systems sold about the same in Europe and the US. PS4 is selling about the same in the US as it is in Europe (only about 3 million off). So no, it's not going to happen.

That assumes that the Switch will end up with a gap in it's favour or let alone a significant one and consoles are momentum driven but the 3DS with it's price cut has beaten the Switch every month in their first year since August aside from October and December will the 3DS's largest margin of victory yet if Nintendo's own preliminary figures are to be believed ... (~10M as of December 10th and on that same date in the 3DS's first year it was ~9.5M units according VGC in which the 3DS has just reduced the gap to a measly 500K!) 

Momentum driven indeed but not in the way you think that the Switch when it's clearly more front loaded than the other systems including the 3DS itself ... 

PS4 won't be able to break 10M units even though it's been tracking ahead of the PS3 in Japan for 4 years now in which the PS3 was able to sell 10M units during it's lifetime in Japan ? 

You say Switch will outsell PS4 in the US based off of 10 months of data yet I can't use those same 10 months of data against it in Japan compared to the 3DS ? Double standards much ?  

Furthermore you over implicate PS4 surmounting difficulties against building a sizable lead against the Switch in Europe when PS4 in it's lifetime will probably reach having over a 2x advantage against the Switch's predecessor while the Switch itself only has a 4% lead (?!) against the 3DS in Europe during similar point in their lifetimes according to VGC (3DS was at 2.28M units sold in Europe, December 10th 2011 while the Switch totals ~2.37M units at December 9th 2017) plus it's ironic that you describe the 3DS as being "fizzled out" even though it still outsold the Switch in Japan by a comfortable margin during the holidays and will go to do similar numbers with the Switch WW once we have all of the data for the end of last year ... 

@Bold This must be what people call "satire" when the so called "VideoGameAccountant" ignores the numbers at hand and the logic that comes with it since it doesn't suit his argument ...  

Also I beg to differ that Europe is not this "magical sales region", maybe not to either Microsoft or Nintendo anymore but it accounts for nearly 40% of Sony's total PS4 hardware sales. It's Japan who is not this magical sales region since PS4 will probably nearly double the deficit it has in Japan with the Switch with the surplus it has in Europe if VGC's numbers are to be believed ...