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Kimishima hopes to sell over 20M Nintendo Switch units next FY.

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celador said:
tbone51 said:

Ummm we don't know even half of the lineup for Jan to Sept yet. We have to wait until at least the Jan direct before judging if it's weak or not. 2017 release schedule wasn't even fully known in till summer. 

sure, but last year we knew that a lot of teams hadn't released anything in a while and hadn't had any announcements. This time it's different. A lot of teams have now released something or had an announcement already, and the big hitters announced are all holiday 2018 at the earliest. The only system seller unannounced that might hit in the first half of the year is Animal Crossing. Aside from that, it's looking like KIrby and Yoshi and not a lot else for the first half of the year

The big hitters this fiscal year were Mario Kart Deluxe in April, Splatoon 2 in July & Mario Odyssey in Oct with a handful of smaller support titles in between.

Next fiscal year could very well look like

Smash Bros Deluxe-April

Animal Crossing-July

Pokemon-Oct

Then games like Yoshi, Kirby, Fire Emblem and a few other unannounced games to fill in the gaps.



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Seems like a lofty goal to me, unless Pokemon or Animal Crossing makes 2018.



JRPGfan said:

So in April 2019 the Nintendo Switch could be around 34m units sold? if that happends.

Might be abit optimistic... but it could happend.

It would need a price cut, and a big title or two to boost sales though.

Well, Nintendo currently plans to ship 16.74 million Switches by April 2018, and selling more than 20 million for FY 2018 implies even higher shipments.

With how Nintendo has been low-balling its shipment forecast most of this year (they did not revise the guidance in July when it was obvious to everyone it was going to blow past it), I could see 42 million Nintendo Switches shipped by April 2019 and based on current stocking and sell-through rates that would be around 40 million units sold through.

The crux of all that is keeping demand up with supply, which has been very easy for Nintendo this year given their world class first year line-up.

If Kimishima believes next year will sell that much more, then he is confident in the software lineup and production capacities for that to happen in his conservative forecasting tendencies.

This is all very good news, and indicates Nintendo Switch will have a great line of games all next year with hardware sales to match. :)



If he's putting this number out there, it tells me that at least Pokemon is making 2018, because there's no way they're going to get anywhere close to those numbers without it. Smash Bros. and/or Animal Crossing might make 2018 also, given that they'll almost definitely need more heavy hitters like those to sell systems to the order of magnitude Kimishima is proposing.



NNID: TheCCluc

    I still have the impression that some games that were planed to release on the Wii U were postponed to release on the Switch. Also I think that some games of last year (Zelda, Mario Odyssey) were finished developed some time before release day so that they would be released on the fitting moment.

    Consequently in my opinion the Zelda team is already working on the new Zelda since around 1.5 years.



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    As someone who can't really justify buying a Switch at current pricing as I only really want to play Mario Odyssey I'm hoping for a price cut. They need to do something in Europe as it hasn't been as successful as the US or Japan over here. I'm unsure at the moment how the Switch has faired over Christmas and how third party US and European titles are selling. Is interest in Switch rising, falling or stable? What are the levels of Switch owner's satisfaction with the console? Difficult to get the full picture at the moment. Also difficult to see if Nintendo are more motivated to maintain a high margin on the hardware or actually sell more units to generate more software sales. How sure are they of the success of their upcoming software titles?

    My gut instinct is the Switch may not achieve those sales at current pricing and interest has waned slightly and it needs something to maintain momentum. That's looking from a UK perspective though and the US and Japan looks to to be on a different level.

    I've not read many comments from owners saying how much they are using their Switches compared to other consoles if they own them too.



    dark_gh0st_b0y said:
    tbone51 said:

    They did that with gen 5 and its the lowest selling main entry

    nah, gen 5 was just another gen

    I mean starting again from gen 1 in a whole new perspective, upgrade Pokemon like they did with BoTW, scrap Ash, he's had enough traveling, start a new, dark era of Pokemon >.<

    Ash isn't in the games, and a dark Pokémon won't sell as well as the current version.



    Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Smash would help sales especially in the other markets. Japan would do great regardless since Switch is a hybrid.



    I'd say that's conservative.



     

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    Then he better have must-play games for around the time.



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